Baccarat is keeping Strip gaming revenue above water. What will boost visitation?
In the film Casino, Tangiers' head of security Billy Sherbert — portrayed by Don Rickles — keeps a Japanese baccarat player from returning home by lying about trouble with the airplane. The gambler returns to the casino and proceeds to lose all his winnings and then some. Even fictional casinos know the importance of baccarat. Big swings from the game are the reason Strip gaming is outpacing downturns in visitation and other metrics.
High-end baccarat results may be masking what’s really happening in Las Vegas.
Triple-digit revenue totals from a game associated with a handful of Strip casinos and known for its pendulum-like win-loss swings carried the Strip to better than 5 percent revenue jumps in July and August, according to the Gaming Control Board.
Casinos held unusual highs of 17.5 percent of all baccarat bets in July and 18.5 percent in August. A year ago, the hold percentages were 8.8 percent in July and 10.5 percent in August.
All other Strip economic metrics used to gauge profitability are down through the first eight months of 2025. Casting aside casino totals, analysts are concerned about an 8 percent decline in visitation, a 4.5 percent drop in airline passengers and a 9 percent decrease in revenue per available room (RevPar).
“While we believe the long-term Vegas thesis remains intact, we worry softness from leisure (and) international customers will last through year-end following three years of growth,” Macquarie Securities gaming analyst Chad Beynon noted last week.
RevPar, which is down 8.5 percent on the Strip through August, has analysts particularly worried.
The measurement covers all revenue associated with a hotel room, including gambling expenses and non-gaming spending such as the cost of the room, dining out, entertainment and shopping. Analysts have often said non-gaming spending in Las Vegas is more important because it is often higher than the gaming totals.
In the control board’s 2024 Gaming Abstract, which is released every February and covers combined financial information, Strip resorts reported almost $21.9 billion in total revenue in the fiscal year (July through June), of which $5.7 billion came from gaming — almost 27 percent.
John Mehaffey, who edits the Vegas Advantage website, said in an email that the lower end of the Las Vegas tourism market has been slower because of what they perceived as high prices.
“We are seeing hotel prices and table game minimums drop,” he said. “Some casinos have also introduced drink and dining specials.”
Last week, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) sponsored a five-day sales event following its Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas television advertising campaign to address the visitation slide.
The promotion offered visitors and locals more than 100 deals from Southern Nevada resorts, involving dining, entertainment and non-gaming experiences.
Views of the promotion were mixed.
Mehaffey said the deals helped draw more interest in the market, offering guests who thought their last Las Vegas trip was too expensive a way to return on a budget.
“It likely helped sell some room inventory that would have otherwise gone unoccupied,” he said.
Freelance Las Vegas journalist Rob Kachelriess, who follows the hospitality industry for several national publications and edits the City Cast Las Vegas newsletter, suggested the market could have offered better promotions.
“Instead of doing something dramatic, like a full-stop moratorium on resort fees and parking charges, the deals are a somewhat uninspiring choice between the 'meh’ and ‘maybe,’” Kachelriess wrote.
Las Vegas-based gaming industry consultant Brendan Bussmann suggested any hand-wringing over the city’s downturn should be tempered because the market is in a much different place since the Great Recession.
“This is about the marathon and not the sprint by throwing quick things at a market segment,” Bussmann said. “We need to direct those efforts to changing the narrative and talking about all of the good things going on in the destination.”
Beynon said he’s worried the Strip’s issues could filter into the Las Vegas locals gaming market, which has so far avoided any economic repercussions. However, he suggested any effect could be delayed because of increased promotional and marketing activities.
Red Rock Resorts officials said in July that the company’s second-quarter total was the highest three-month figure in its 49-year history. A company executive told the Nevada Gaming Commission last week that Red Rock Resort in Summerlin and Durango in southwest Las Vegas are drawing visitors away from the Strip.
Bussmann suggested the declines at Harry Reid International Airport could be due to the pending demise of Spirit Airlines, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Aug. 29 for the second time this year. Spirit, which has seen a 1.7 million-passenger decline since the start of the year, had been Reid Airport’s second-busiest carrier behind Southwest.
Reid is down by almost 1.8 million passengers through August.
“We have been down domestically for 11 out of the last 12 months,” Bussmann said, adding that the airport needs to find other low-cost airlines to replace the seats lost in the Spirit downsizing.
“This is a macroeconomic issue that has been building with that segment of the market for some time,” Bussmann said. “That corner will turn eventually.”
Ceremony kicks off construction for the GSR Arena
Grand Sierra Resort owner Alex Meruelo was joined by leaders from UNR and elsewhere Tuesday afternoon in a groundbreaking ceremony for a 10,000-seat arena — the initial phase of the hotel-casino’s planned $1 billion expansion.
The arena, which is expected to open in 2027, will be the home venue for the Nevada Wolfpack men’s basketball team, as well as other sports and entertainment attractions.
Tribal gaming leader Ernie Stevens Jr. remembered as a ‘warrior and statesman’
The unexpected death of tribal gaming leader Ernie Stevens Jr. led to an outpouring of memories throughout the gaming industry from the Indian casino community and commercial gaming leaders. Stevens died unexpectedly last week at age 66.
Stevens, who spent more than two decades as chairman of the Indian Gaming Association (IGA) and was a member of the Oneida Indian Nation of Wisconsin, was credited with leading the expansion of tribal gaming across the U.S. and forging a partnership with the commercial casino industry.
Victor Rocha, conference chair for the IGA and a member of California’s Pechanga tribe, said Stevens brought Indian nations together during the early days of casino expansions.
“He always wanted the tribes to show strength and unity,” Rocha said. “I knew he had over 3 million air miles and God knows how many road miles. He’d fly anywhere because he had such a commitment to the tribes. He was influential and a presence.”
In a statement, IGA Executive Director Jason Giles wrote that Stevens was a “warrior, a statesman, and a champion for all of Indian Country. His vision and commitment built bridges across tribal nations, Congress, and federal agencies, ensuring that tribal gaming remained a cornerstone of tribal self-determination and economic growth.”
More than 530 tribal gaming operations in 29 states produced almost $44 billion in gaming revenue in the 2024 fiscal year, according to the National Indian Gaming Commission.
Democratic Washington State Rep. Chris Stearns, a member of the Navajo Nation, wrote on LinkedIn that Stevens helped him during troubled times in his life and is “one of the reasons I am still here today.” He called Stevens “a role model.”
In 2014, Stevens became the first tribal gaming representative elected to the American Gaming Association (AGA) Gaming Hall of Fame.
AGA CEO Bill Miller wrote in a statement that Stevens elevated tribal gaming into a powerful driver of economic opportunity.
“He shaped the broader trajectory of our industry with his unwavering commitment to collaboration, integrity, and inclusion,” Miller said.
Additional comments can be found here: Tributes for Indian Gaming Association Chairman Ernie Stevens Jr.
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