Indy Elections: Harris on a heater
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: We’re no political experts, but when people are comparing your campaign to Obama ‘08, that’s probably a good sign. Also in today’s edition: A new Nevada Senate poll, ballot question news and mean texts sent to Miriam Adelson.
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By the Numbers:
- 0 days since we’ve had to write a poll story about Nevada, proving #WeMatter
- 84 days until the general election
- 174 days until the 83rd legislative session
The Harris heater
By Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
More than 12,000 people attended and another 4,000 were turned away for heat-related concerns at the Las Vegas rally for Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, making it the largest political rally in recent memory in Nevada.
For the more than 15 attendees interviewed by The Nevada Independent, the energy Saturday reflected what they’ve seen in recent weeks.
Read here on the momentum shift in Nevada.
What we’re reading and writing
Indy Explains: Question 2 on the 2024 Nevada ballot by Isabella Aldrete
“We must do a better job in making sure we do not discriminate and stigmatize persons with disabilities or mental illness in our laws,” said state Sen. Robin Titus (R-Wellington).
At massive Vegas rally, Harris energizes Democrats, pledges to end tax on tips by Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
Democrats and Republicans say they’ll end taxes on tips.
Harris’ jubilant coda to her battleground tour in Vegas belies the tough road ahead by Megan Messerly, Politico
The road to success runs through addressing economic uncertainty.
Inside the Worst Three Weeks of Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, The New York Times
Miriam Adelson and Trump are beefing, prompting “concerns — as yet unrealized — that Mrs. Adelson might scale back her support of Mr. Trump.”
New Nevada poll sees Harris with biggest lead over Trump yet by Gabby Birenbaum
Did I just see Democrats waving #WeMatter flags a little higher?
Poll: Nevadans want a ban on stock trading among members of Congress by Gabby Birenbaum
Voters say politicians should help the country, not their portfolios.
Indy Poll Watch
David Wolfson, Woodrow Johnston, Providence Polling, (Aug. 3-5)
- 991 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3 percentage points
A new poll of likely Nevada voters shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) with a 12 percentage point lead ahead of her Republican opponent Sam Brown.
Rosen received 51.7 percent of support in the poll, while Brown received 39.7 percent. Another 2.8 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for another candidate, and the remaining 5.8 percent said they would support none of the candidates.
Though Rosen has consistently led Brown since he announced his bid for Senate, the poll released by Republican political strategist Woodrow Johnston and Decipher Ai’s David Wolfson, a pollster and Columbia University lecturer, is one of the best polls for Rosen this cycle.
The poll sampled 991 likely Nevada voters from Aug. 3-5 using SMS and text-to-web. The statewide margin of error is 3 percentage points.
The same poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris closing the gap between herself and former President Donald Trump in the Silver State, leading her opponent by 6 percentage points. Johnston and Wolfson have consulted and worked for Republicans, but did not receive a commission.
Johnston told The Nevada Independent that he did not anticipate Rosen’s lead to be as wide as it was, but he attributed it partly to a “huge spending disparity” and Trump’s declining popularity.
“When President Trump was leading in the polls, Captain Brown was still consistently behind, now that President Trump has dropped, it appears Captain Brown has dropped even lower,” Johnston said. “There appears to be a correlation at least. Both campaigns have in their communications anchored themselves somewhat to the top of their tickets.”
Johnston said Brown and Trump still have time to make up for lost ground, noting that many voters choose their preferred candidate after Labor Day.
“Most of the media attention has been on Vice President Harris ever since the switch was announced,” Johnston said. “President Trump appears to perform best under pressure; with the sentencing coming up Sept. 18, I expect his numbers to bounce back up.”
For toplines from the poll, click here.
— Tabitha Mueller
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: DNC launches first Harris-Walz advertising in battleground states
Driving on the Las Vegas Strip or along McCarran Boulevard in Reno, you might have noticed a new billboard featuring Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The billboard includes the slogan “FIGHTING FOR YOU” underneath the Democratic hopefuls and features former President Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), with the words “OUT FOR THEMSELVES” written underneath.
The ads, which launched Monday, are part of more than 80 billboards the Democratic National Committee (DNC) placed across seven battleground states.
In a press release Monday, the DNC said the ads contrast the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance campaigns, showing Harris’ “bright vision for the future” and Trump’s “weird campaign of lies and vengeance” — messaging coined by Walz that has grown in popularity.
— Tabitha Mueller
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (8/6-8/12)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: WinSenate (anti-Brown) - Scam Brown
- Began airing: 7/31
- Total spend: $831,141
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 10.1 million
- U.S. Senate race: Win it Back (anti-Rosen) - Reckless Spending
- Began airing: 8/2
- Total spend: $830,461
- Ad impressions: 7.3 million
- U.S. Senate race: Harris for President - Determinacion (Spanish ad)
- Began airing: 8/8
- Total spend: $409,325
- Ad impressions: 543,000
- U.S. Senate race: Duty and Honor (pro-Rosen) - Housing
- Began airing: 8/4
- Total spend: $368,730
- Ad impressions: 6.7 million
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Fairshake, a super PAC funded by a small group of crypto companies, placed a $21.7 million broadcast ad reservation in television markets across the country, including a $1.76 million reservation in Congressional District 4, where Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) is facing a challenge from former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a Republican. The PAC has backed Horsford in the past.
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
🗳️ Reproductive Rights Amendment designated as Question 6: Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom announced that its ballot initiative to enshrine abortion access and other reproductive rights into the Nevada Constitution will be designated as Question 6 on the 2024 November ballot. The amendment, which officially qualified for the ballot June 28, would need to pass this year and in 2026 to amend the Constitution.
📺 Trump super PAC makes Nevada ad push — MAGA Inc., the primary Trump-aligned Super PAC, plans to roll out a $100 million ad blitz before Labor Day in seven battleground states, including Nevada. The ads will focus on Harris’ immigration policies and her record as a prosecutor, Politico reported.
— Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
- Monday-Wednesday, Aug. 12-14: U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is making several stops in Nevada ahead of the annual Lake Tahoe Summit on Wednesday, where he is scheduled to deliver remarks. On Monday, Buttigieg attended a ceremony in Southern Nevada to celebrate the start of construction on the Maryland Parkway Bus Rapid Transit project, and, on Tuesday, he is scheduled to help break ground on Reno’s Arlington Avenue Bridge replacement project, which is being funded by the Biden administration.
- Saturday, Aug. 17: The state’s new top-down centralized Voter Registration and Election Management System (VREMS) is scheduled to go live. VREMS is replacing a bottom-up system where individual counties report to the state. State officials have said the change will lead to better efficiencies surrounding Nevada’s election processes.
— Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Classic Southern Nevada.
- In Minnesota, turkey is a vegetable.
- Miserable cat ladies for Titus?
- Repeat after me, it’s pronounced Ne-VAD-uh, not Ne-VAH-da.
We’ll see you next week.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.