Indy Elections: Nevada Democrats are feeling good about first-in-the-nation potential
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In today’s edition: Nevada Democrats are feeling good about potential first-in-the nation status. Plus: Election official turnover rates remain high in Nevada and a few noteworthy legislative switcheroos.
While the Democratic insiders who will decide if Nevada is first in the nation to vote for a presidential candidate in 2028 met this weekend in Puerto Rico, I monitored the developments from the same frigid temperatures as our D.C. readers. (I had an Arctic blast!)
Like the 12 other states that applied to vote early in the Democratic primary, Nevada moved on to the next stage in the process. It will still be quite some time before the deciders winnow the field — but there are already some positive signs for the state.
Read the story my colleague Oona Milliken and I wrote about why Nevada Democrats are feeling good. It includes new comments from the Democratic decision-makers and presidential hopefuls about the state’s strengths. And read on for more about the other election news of this weekend — the money race in Nevada’s congressional contests.
This newsletter is published every other week. We want to hear from you! Email your newsletter editor Mini Racker at [email protected].
New congressional campaign finance reports
New campaign finance reports rolled in over the weekend and the state’s four congressional incumbents continue to rake in the dough, going into the midterms with hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash on hand. The Nevada delegation’s donors include Democratic bigwigs, Silicon Valley investors, Lithium Americas executives, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Most of the challengers who raised significant sums are loaning their campaigns tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, of dollars. The exception is state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson), who boasted numerous small-dollar donors but still faces a steep climb in her fight to unseat Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV).
Read my story with all the top takeaways.
— Mini Racker
What we’re reading and writing
Two opposing interpretations of how the Colorado River negotiations are going fewer than two weeks before the deadline for a seven-state deal:
- Las Vegas Review-Journal: Colorado River states appear far from deal — even after governors meet in D.C.
- Nevada Current: Colorado River governors express cautious optimism after ‘historic’ DC meeting
The New York Times: Here’s What to Know About the Partial Government Shutdown
This shutdown won’t halt funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, but there are a host of other federal programs and agencies that are affected.
The Atlantic: Ammon Bundy Is All Alone
What does it mean when you lose Ammon Bundy?
Even conservatives such as Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) are slamming the administration’s immigration enforcement operation, a sign the politics have changed.
D.C. Download
The immigration funding fight remains at the center of D.C. discourse this week.
- The action to end the partial government shutdown is back in the House, where the situation is in flux going into Tuesday. We’ll be watching how the Nevada members react. Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) is still thinking about the vote to fund the Department of Homeland Security. Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) said Monday that he agrees with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and is introducing an amendment to redirect immigration enforcement funds to health care.
- Meanwhile, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) sent a letter calling for an investigation into White House border czar Tom Homan, whom President Donald Trump dispatched to Minneapolis last week.
— Mini Racker
Indy Poll Watch
POLL: Trump approval rating at -18 percent, with economy and immigration main drivers
New polling from The Economist shows President Donald Trump’s nationwide net approval rating has sunk from 2 percent at the start of his term to -18 percent. In particular, Americans feel that Trump has not done a good job of handling two major campaign promises: lowering inflation and addressing the “flood of illegal immigration” under former President Joe Biden.
Nevada’s approval rating for the president also sits at around -18 percent. That’s below the nearby states of Wyoming, with an almost 24 percent approval rating, and Utah, at 1.8 percent approval. In contrast, Trump’s net percentage approval in Nevada was -3 percent in March 2025.
Sixty percent of Americans think the country is heading on the wrong track, compared to 50 percent at the start of Trump’s term. Trump voters still overwhelmingly support him, and red states still show support for the president, though cracks are beginning to show even in states that went for Trump, according to polling from The Economist.
Inflation and the economy continue to be the top issues for voters, with health care and government following closely behind. Ratings of Trump’s handling of inflation fell from 6 percent to -27 percent this past year; his handling of immigration dropped from net approval of 11 percent to -7 percent.
— Oona Milliken
Mini Series
🗳️ Election official turnover in Nevada remains high — In Nevada, 65 percent of the state’s 17 counties saw turnover of a chief election official in the last five years — marking the Silver State as having the third-highest rate of turnover in the West after Arizona and New Mexico (which has term limits for local election officials). The findings posted in a new report published Tuesday by the national reform group Issue One noted departures were largely driven by personal reasons, including increased threats and stress — a continuation of a trend since 2020.
🔄 A few legislative switcheroos — The longtime adage of nothing is set until filing day is proving true in Nevada’s legislative races. Rafael Arroyo, a Republican businessman, announced Jan. 26 he was swapping his campaign for the open Assembly District 41 seat to instead challenge Sen. Julie Pazina (D-Henderson) in Senate District 12. Former Assm. Annie Black (R-Mesquite), who was expected to run for her old Assembly district seat, also announced she will instead be running for open Senate District 20 being vacated by Sen. Jeff Stone (R-Las Vegas). Black will likely square off against Assm. Danielle Gallant (R-Las Vegas) in a GOP primary.
- To stay up to date on campaign announcements, be sure to follow our tracker.
👀 The girls are fighting — A recent spat on X between two Republican candidates running for treasurer got downright nasty. The Las Vegas Sun’s Kyle Chouinard explains what happened.
💸 Filing late — Henderson Councilwoman Carrie Cox (NP), charged with a felony crime for eavesdropping on a colleague and recording their conversation, filed her annual contributions and expenses report on Jan. 21, six days after the deadline. Cox has raised a little more than $100,000, and has donated 83 times to herself, sometimes with no more than $1.25, many less than $20.
🍷 Bovino in Vegas — Following his departure from Minnesota, as well the loss of his title as “commander at large,” Border Patrol Chief Greg Bovino was spotted in Las Vegas last week. Bovino, laughing with a glass of what looks like red wine in hand, did not seem bothered about his controversial exit from Minneapolis.
— Tabitha Mueller and Oona Milliken
Looking ahead
- Monday, March 2 — Filing period for candidates running for local government, the Legislature and statewide elections opens
- Wednesday, April 15 — Nevada candidate campaign contributions and expenditures filing deadline
- Tuesday, June 9 — Nevada’s primary election
A post that caught our eye:
Wonder what this says about the spirit of bipartisanship.
We’ll see you in two weeks.
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