Nevadans are going to bed on election night without knowing which presidential candidate won the state’s six electoral votes — though the state’s eventual result will not decide the presidency.

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is too close to call as of midnight on Election Day, with nearly 1.1 million votes reported. Currently, Trump holds a lead of 5 percentage points, with numerous Election Day votes and late-arriving mail ballots, including those dropped off today, yet to be tabulated.

(Click here to see full results.)

Even though several news outlets declared Trump the winner of the presidency Tuesday evening, the results of Nevada’s presidential contest will determine whether he will sweep all seven battleground states, as he is expected to carry the remaining six. When Trump won in 2016, he carried all of this year’s battlegrounds, save for Nevada.

Meanwhile, Republicans have gained control of the U.S. Senate, but Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is locked in a tight battle against Republican Sam Brown, who is underperforming Trump so far, particularly in Washoe County.

That means the only undecided federal chamber is the U.S. House, where two of the three Democrat-held seats in Nevada remain too close to call, and Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) prevailed handily in the 4th District, which includes parts of Clark County and rural Nevada.

Since Harris first entered the race in July, polling between the two has remained neck and neck, with neither candidate able to establish a lead large enough to predict the winner. Both candidates invested significant time and resources into the state. 

Trump changed the policy terrain in Las Vegas in June when he pledged to end taxation on tips; Harris followed with her own proposal to end taxes on tips and raise the minimum wage in Las Vegas in August. Trump personally appeared at roundtables and rallies to shore up support among Latino Americans and Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, while Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, made several visits to the state, and big-name surrogates including former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton were on hand during early voting to underscore its importance. 

Both candidates had dueling stops Oct. 31 in Las Vegas and Reno, making their closing arguments to Nevada voters. Voters were inundated with ads from each campaign on every medium; the Harris campaign even lit up the Sphere.

Tuesday night’s results reinforce just how close the race is — in Nevada, at least. 

Turnout currently stands at about 1.1 million. In 2020, Nevada saw record turnout of more than 1.4 million votes. With figures about mail ballots turned in on Election Day unavailable, turnout for this year is difficult to predict.

With the race too close to call, the winner will likely be decided based on mail ballots that trickle in after Election Day. Republicans unsuccessfully sued to block the counting of these mail ballots, which can be received until Saturday, as well as non-postmarked mail ballots that come in by 5 p.m. Friday. 

In 2022, about 6 percent of Clark County and 3 percent of Washoe County votes were received after Election Day, though it is unclear how many votes are outstanding this year given that presidential elections tend to have much higher turnout.

Trump is attempting to be the first Republican to win a presidential race in Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004. Since then, Democrats have been able to win through building a significant enough firewall in Clark County, where 70 percent of voters live, to counteract Republican vote totals in swingy Washoe County and the ruby-red rural counties. 

That formula has been threatened this cycle by a diminishing voter registration advantage. On Election Day 2020, Democrats had a voter registration advantage of about 5 percentage points; in 2024, it was down to 1 percent. 

In Clark County, which President Joe Biden won by 9 percentage points, Democrats’ voter registration edge by Election Day was down to less than 7 percentage points. 

But rather than representing Republican gains, the biggest change in voter registration dynamics has been an explosion in nonpartisan registration — bolstered by the state’s 2020 implementation of automatic voter registration. 

Trump’s path to victory in the state is to ensure, as has occurred in past cycles, that Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats, while Harris needs to win independent voters by a significant enough margin to overcome the weakening of the Clark County Democratic firewall.

In the roughly 1 million votes included in the initial batch of results, Trump maintained a roughly 4 percentage point advantage over Harris — similar to the turnout lead held by registered Republicans over registered Democrats across those same votes. It indicates that nonpartisans have, so far, split evenly among the two candidates.

In trying to win nonpartisan voters, the Harris campaign relied on Democrats’ traditional organizing strength in Nevada — the Reid Machine mix of union canvassers, state party officials, campaign organizers and interest groups whose impressive ground game has delivered the state to Democrats in the past. To that effect, the mighty Culinary Workers’ Union Local 226 has knocked more than 900,000 doors this cycle.

Trump, meanwhile, has banked on economic dissatisfaction in a state that has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, and gains among voters of color — in particular, Latino men. 

Both campaigns have spent enormous sums of money to get their message out to voters — about $122 million in total. Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans in the presidential race, between the Harris campaign itself and allied outside groups. Harris-aligned spending has totaled about $85 million, while Trump and his affiliates have thrown in nearly $36 million.

While the election is still too close to call in Nevada, the state did not end up mattering to either candidate’s path to 270 votes. 

In the U.S. Senate, however, it will determine the size of the Republican majority. Having flipped Democratic seats in Ohio and West Virginia, Republicans will now have control of the upper chamber. 

Races in five swing states — including Nevada — are still too close to call. Republican Sam Brown has a lead of less than half a percentage point — meaning Rosen is outrunning Harris.