On the first day of early voting, Nevadans described this year as the election of their lifetimes, pointing to the swing state’s toss-up status in the presidential race, a U.S. Senate race that could shape control of the upper chamber of Congress, a ballot question that could fundamentally change Nevada’s election system and races that could determine whether Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo can remain a one-man roadblock to the Democratic majority’s agenda in the Legislature.

This year’s election also promises insights into the partisan lean of the state’s growing share of nonpartisan voters. 

As of Sunday evening, 53 percent of registered voters cast their ballots during Nevada’s early voting period, split nearly evenly between mail voters and in-person early voters. Based on historical turnout in past presidential elections, this will likely make up more than 70 percent of the total turnout. There likely are tens of thousands of outstanding mail ballots, which can be counted through Saturday, and there will likely be significantly fewer voters on Election Day after Republicans encouraged early and mail voting for the first time.

Here are the storylines we’re watching:

Which presidential candidate will win Nevada’s 6 electoral votes?

As the smallest of the seven swing states that will decide the presidential race, Nevada’s six electoral votes are a critical part of each candidate’s path to 270 electoral votes.

Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have made numerous visits to the swing states to shore up their support. Harris is attempting to recreate the multiracial, multi-generational electoral coalition of Nevadans that has powered Democrats to victories in the presidential race in four straight elections, even as Democrats’ registration advantage has been nearly eliminated.

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, sees opportunity in a state where the unemployment rate is higher than the rest of the country and is home to a relatively low rate of voters with college degrees.

Could the presidential election come down to Nevada? We might know how important it will be by the time polls close, depending on what’s happening on the East Coast. If Harris and Trump split the midwestern Blue Wall states (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), it becomes increasingly important. To learn more about specific scenarios, click here. 

Will Jacky Rosen or Sam Brown prevail in the Senate race?

Nevada is one of arguably 10 states where the battle for control of the upper chamber will play out.

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is running for a second term against Army veteran Sam Brown. Rosen has led in polls throughout the cycle — mostly beyond the margin of error — and got out to a hot start by using her financial advantages to begin negatively defining Brown and positively defining herself while the Republican was still fending off primary challengers.

Currently, Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate. With West Virginia a virtual lock to flip to Republican control, Democrats must defend all seven vulnerable seats they currently hold to have a chance at Senate control. Nevada is one of those, and as such, both the Rosen campaign and Democratic groups have spent tens of millions of dollars on the race.

Republicans also think Nevada is a prime pickup opportunity — and are especially encouraged by the GOP’s strong returns in early voting. Both parties expect it to be competitive, and for good reason — in 2022, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-NV) re-election, by less than 1 percentage point, was the closest Senate race in the country.

Will Democrats sweep Southern Nevada’s House races?

Democrats have held all three Southern Nevada-based seats since the blue wave of 2018. Even in tough cycles — like 2022 — when Republican groups threw millions at Las Vegas, Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV), Susie Lee (D-NV) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) have hung on.

This cycle, outside groups have not spent any money to boost challengers Mark Robertson (CD-01), Drew Johnson (CD-03) and former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (CD-04). Thus, the Democratic incumbents are much better-funded and have a giant advantage on the airwaves.

But, but, but … it’s a presidential year. Turnout will be much higher than the 2022 midterms, and each of these seats have narrow voter registration advantages for Democrats. A strong Trump performance at the top of the ticket could be enough to drag the Republican challengers to victory.

These are must-hold seats for Democrats if they want to win back control of the House — losses here, in seats that analysts consider lean towards or are likely safe for Democrats, would be difficult to make up. 

Will Mark Amodei be unseated by a wealthy nonpartisan?

For the first time since 1998, no Democrat is running for Congressional District 2 in Northern Nevada. 

Instead, Rep. Mark Amodei’s (R-NV) main challenger in the district is Greg Kidd, a wealthy venture capitalist and registered Republican who successfully submitted 1,500 signatures to run for the seat as a nonpartisan. Kidd is largely self-funding his campaign, far outspending Amodei on campaign advertisements and voter outreach efforts.

Amodei has never faced a serious challenge, handily defeating the closest contender in each general election he's run in by double-digit percentage points in a district with a 13.4 percentage point Republican advantage over Democrats. 

But Kidd sees a path to victory in the newly vast pool of nonpartisans, combined with support from Democrats — he has leaned heavily on his pro-abortion rights stance and even earned the endorsement of Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV).

Will Democrats secure supermajorities in the Legislature?

Democrats, who already hold a 28-seat supermajority in the 42-member Assembly, are one seat shy of the 14 seats needed for a two-thirds supermajority in the 21-member state Senate. The party is looking to secure veto-proof supermajorities this election cycle — an outcome that would prove dire for the political relevance of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who proved himself a powerful check in 2023 on the agenda of a consistently Democrat-controlled Legislature.

In key contests, Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck in fundraising.. 

Fueled by the “Reid Machine” built by longtime U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Nevada Democrats have pumped out electoral wins in recent years. The party further bolstered its structural advantages in congressional and legislative races in 2021 through control of the redistricting process, which saw Democrats redraw state maps.

Outside of the 2014 “red wave” election and subsequent legislative session, Democrats have maintained control of both houses of the Legislature since 2009. Republicans have had more luck winning the governor’s seat, however, and can play a formidable defense against Democratic legislative majorities.

Will Clark County see its first Republican commissioner in more than two decades?

Attorney April Becker is vying to become the first Republican in 20 years to be elected to the Clark County Commission. 

Becker faces Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod (D-Las Vegas) in the race to represent District C. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Ross Miller who didn’t seek re-election. 

Becker is an attorney who previously lost races for the Nevada Senate and Congressional District 3.

Bilbary-Axelrod, the daughter of the late Rep. James Bilbray, who represented Southern Nevada in Congress from 1987 to 1995, is a four-term state assemblywoman first elected in 2016.

Bruce Woodbury was the last Republican elected to the seven-member board. 

Will voters oust the Washoe County Commission chair?

Incumbent Democrat Alexis Hill is facing Republican former Commissioner Marsha Berkbigler to represent District 1 on the Washoe County Commission. Berkbigler held the seat for eight years until Hill defeated her in the 2020 election.

The commission came under intense scrutiny this summer when it initially voted not to certify results from a June primary recount after pressure from Northern Nevada Republicans, including far-right election provocateur Robert Beadles.

Hill, who is the commission chair, is one of two Democrats on the five-person board who voted to certify the recount results. A majority of the board later joined her.

Before her election to the commission, Hill worked in public policy and city planning at the cities of Sparks and Reno. 

Berkbigler was a lobbyist in the Legislature for more than 40 years. 

Who replaces the Goodmans as Las Vegas mayor after 25 years?

Former Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) and Las Vegas City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman are running to become the first Las Vegas mayor in a quarter-century not named Goodman.

Berkley, 73, served 14 years as a Democratic congresswoman representing a district that included a large portion of the City of Las Vegas. 

Seaman, 66, is in the middle of her first full term representing the city’s Ward 2. She is a former one-term Republican assemblywoman who was elected to the city council during a special election in 2019 to finish the term of a councilman who resigned. 

Current Mayor Carolyn Goodman is term-limited. She succeeded her husband, mob lawyer Oscar Goodman, who began the family’s hold on the office in 1999. The Goodmans did not make an endorsement.

This year’s mayoral race was dominated by the long-running land-use dispute surrounding the defunct Badlands golf course that could cost taxpayers upward of $450 million to $650 million. However, the City Council is expected to discuss and possibly vote on a plan Wednesday to settle the nine-year legal matter for much less.

Will Nevada have ranked-choice and open primary voting?

A ballot measure seeking to make Nevada the third state after Maine and Alaska to implement ranked-choice voting narrowly passed in 2022 but needs to pass one more time in 2024 to take effect.

The biggest changes to Nevada’s election system since the state implemented universal mail-in voting in 2020, Question 3 aims to amend the state Constitution by requiring most partisan general elections to move to a system ranking candidates of all parties by order of preference. It would exclude the presidential election but include U.S. Senate and congressional races, legislative elections and statewide office positions.

Groups supporting and opposing the measure have poured millions of dollars into advertisements and campaign efforts. The campaign for the measure has focused on the ballot measure's open primary element that would allow people not registered with either major party to participate in the primary. Opponents have criticized that approach as misleading because it does not discuss ranked-choice voting.

Will voter ID and abortion ballot questions move forward?

Nevadans are voting on two contentious questions that would amend the state Constitution to require voter ID and establish a fundamental right to abortion.

Because the questions are constitutional amendments, they would also need to pass in 2026 to take effect.

Both questions are widely expected to pass.

The voter ID initiative would require in-person voters in Nevada to present a valid photo identification before voting. People voting by mail would have to include part of a personally identifiable number — such as their driver’s license or Social Security number — alongside their signature.

If it moves forward, it would mark a long time coming for Republicans who have sought the requirement for years as a commonsense measure to ensure election security. Democrats in the Legislature have stymied any GOP effort on the grounds that it could disenfranchise voters and is unnecessary because ID is required to register to vote.

The abortion ballot question is part of a nationwide effort to bolster abortion rights since the fall of Roe v. Wade. Abortion is already legal through 24 weeks into a pregnancy in Nevada, but enshrining it in the state Constitution would make it harder to overturn.

Will Nevada see historical turnout levels?

More than 2 million voters are registered in the Silver State. Based on historical turnout data, more Nevada voters tend to cast a ballot in presidential years, and this year could be a record-breaker. 

In the 2020 general election — which had one of the highest voter turnouts in U.S history— almost 80 percent of Nevada’s registered voters cast their ballot, according to Nevada’s Secretary of State. In 2016, about 76 percent of Nevada’s 1.4 million registered voters turned out. 

Already, some 53 percent of voters cast their ballots during early voting. So far, nearly 60 percent of registered Democrats have turned out, 67 percent of registered Republicans have already cast a ballot, and about 35 percent of registered nonpartisans have voted.

How will nonpartisans swing in the election? 

Last summer, registered nonpartisan voters became the largest voting bloc in the Silver State. 

Voter registration data from the end of October shows about 33 percent of Nevada voters are registered as nonpartisan, nearly 30 percent as Democrats, almost 30 percent as Republicans and about 7 percent with a minor party. As the state’s share of nonpartisan voters has ballooned, however, it’s not clear whether nonpartisans tend to lean Democrat, Republican or even plan to cast a ballot in 2024. 

The state’s automatic voter registration process went into effect in 2020. It automatically registers people who complete DMV transactions to vote unless they opt out, and a “nonpartisan” registration is the default unless someone proactively chooses a party. It’s led to swelling voter rolls, although many of the newly registered are thought to be disengaged from politics. 

As one newly registered voter interviewed by The Nevada Independent in 2020 said, “voting’s cool” because you can pick the leader of the U.S.

But would he vote in November of that year?

“Maybe ... we’ll see,” he said.

Will conservatives gain more influence on the Clark County School Board?

Big shifts are coming to the Clark County School Board following the 2024 election, as three of the four incumbents are not running for re-election. Board President Evelyn Garcia Morales is hoping to retain her seat after facing intense pressure to resign amid controversies, such as former Trustee Katie Williams living out of state.

Among the candidates are two former members of the local chapter of the Moms for Liberty, a controversial, conservative “parental rights” group that has pushed for book bans and opposed policies related to LGBTQ+ students. Although they broke away from the local chapter due to personal differences, they say they still stand by its values. A third affiliate, Tim Underwood, is running for the State Board of Education District 1.

All of their opponents are endorsed by three current trustees. The trustees also endorsed Garcia Morales’ opponent.