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Rosen posts big lead over Brown in latest Nevada Senate poll

Though Rosen has consistently led Brown since he announced his bid for Senate, the poll’s results are some of the best for Rosen this cycle.
Tabitha Mueller
Tabitha Mueller
Election 2024Polls
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A new poll of likely Nevada voters shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) with a 12 percentage point lead ahead of her Republican opponent Sam Brown.

Rosen received 51.7 percent of support in the poll, while Brown received 39.7 percent. Another 2.8 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for another candidate, and the remaining 5.8 percent said they would support none of the candidates. 

Though Rosen has consistently led Brown since he announced his bid for Senate, the poll released by Republican political strategist Woodrow Johnston and Decipher Ai’s David Wolfson, a pollster and Columbia University lecturer, is one of the best polls for Rosen this cycle.

The poll sampled 991 likely Nevada voters from Aug. 3-5 using SMS and text-to-web. The statewide margin of error is 3 percentage points.

The same poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris closing the gap between herself and former President Donald Trump in the Silver State, leading her opponent by 6 percentage points. Johnston and Wolfson have consulted and worked for Republicans, but did not receive a commission. 

Johnston told The Nevada Independent that he did not anticipate Rosen’s lead to be as wide as it was, but he attributed it partly to a “huge spending disparity” and Trump’s declining popularity.

“When President Trump was leading in the polls, Capt. Brown was still consistently behind, now that President Trump has dropped, it appears Capt. Brown has dropped even lower,” Johnston said. “There appears to be a correlation at least. Both campaigns have in their communications anchored themselves somewhat to the top of their tickets.”

Johnston said Brown and Trump still have time to make up for lost ground, noting that many voters choose their preferred candidate after Labor Day.

“Most of the media attention has been on Vice President Harris ever since the switch was announced,” Johnston said. “President Trump appears to perform best under pressure; with the sentencing coming up Sept. 18, I expect his numbers to bounce back up.”

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