I covered the legalization and subsequent expansion of sports betting. That process took the better part of a decade. The rocketlike pace of the prediction market debate could land the matter at the nation's highest court faster than anyone "predicted."

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Last weekend, prediction market Kalshi generated more than $545 million in trading "contracts" — the term the company uses for sports wagering — on the Masters Tournament.

However, none of Kalshi's activity on the Masters came from Nevada customers. 

An April court order from Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury blocked Kalshi's access to Nevada customers for at least 14 days following a request by the Gaming Control Board.

Wagering on golf is inconsequential in Nevada sportsbooks. The control board lumps golf revenue with "other sports," which includes tennis, boxing and auto racing — $105 million statewide in 2025. 

But gaming regulators and the legal sports betting industry want prediction markets banished — or at least subject to the same rules as traditional sports books. The businesses are avoiding state gaming law requirements and, in Nevada, not paying a 6.75 percent tax on all wagers.

While the state-level ban on Kalshi expires Friday, the deadline may be extended by the judge by a couple of weeks to give both sides time to agree on the language for a preliminary injunction that would take its place.

Nationwide, more than two dozen states have various legal challenges involving prediction market companies. Utah, one of 10 states without legal sports betting, is suing to keep Kalshi out of the state.

"These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling — pure and simple," Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) wrote in a post on X. "They are destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men. They have no place in Utah."

Nevada gaming regulators and their attorneys have been preparing for a hearing on Thursday at the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. 

The three-justice panel will hear arguments on four cases — two involving Kalshi and one each on prediction market operators Crypto.com and Robinhood Derivatives. A review of Woodbury's ruling on Kalshi was added last week. Kalshi's federal lawsuit in Nevada will also be discussed.

Gaming consultant Brendan Bussmann said a positive 9th Circuit decision for the states will be vital to the regulatory process, given the court's jurisdiction covers Nevada and other states that have overseen commercial and tribal casinos for decades.

At the same time Woodbury ruled in Nevada, Kalshi won a divided decision from the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals that allows the company to continue offering contracts on college sports in New Jersey, even though the state bans traditional sports wagering on collegiate contests.

Legal experts now say it's all but certain the U.S. Supreme Court will take up the matter. 

"Every one of these hearings is an important precedent as we work our way up to the Supreme Court, where this will ultimately be decided," Bussmann said, adding that a favorable ruling for gaming regulators would ensure "the structure that has governed Nevada gambling is not upended."

Observers are looking for any hints on how the courts will rule. The 2-to-1 decision in the 3rd Circuit involved three justices appointed by President Donald Trump, whose son, Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor to Kalshi and on the advisory board of Polymarket. Trump appointed the three justices who will oversee the case in the 9th Circuit.

The larger question is how quickly the cases can move to the nation's highest court.

Kalshi and other prediction markets argue that they are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and are not subject to Nevada or any other state's regulatory process. They often compare sports contracts to swaps, a type of derivative contract that bets whether something with economic consequences will happen, often on a certain date.

In a February Wall Street Journal commentary, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig wrote that the agency "will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products."

Selig did not use the word "sports" anywhere within the 711-word op-ed, although it's central to the prediction market business right now.

In January, InGame reported 89 percent of Kalshi's fee revenue came from sports contracts. In a 37-minute video interview last week with Axios, Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Laras said sports contracts account for roughly 70 percent of the company's business. 

Mansour said a sports category is part of Kalshi's "overall ecosystem" and is needed to "build a market for economic indicators." 

Mansour said the business models for sportsbooks and prediction markets are different. He said the creation of every financial instrument throughout history has come with the question, "Is this gambling?"

"When we say gambling, some people are actually referring to speculation," Mansour said. Kashi collects 2 percent from every contract. Winners are paid out from the money collected in the pool.

"When a customer wins on a traditional sportsbook, those winnings are coming from the business itself," he said.

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MGM Resorts reaches stock voting agreement with Diller, its largest shareholder 

MGM Resorts International and media mogul Barry Diller agreed last week on a restriction that ensures Diller — who is the company's largest individual stockholder — from exerting more influence over the company's dealings than other shareholders. 

Diller, 84, is chairman of IAC/Interactive Corp., which controls more than 25 percent of MGM's stock. IAC has two seats on the MGM board, one held by Diller. In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing last week, Diller and MGM agreed that the IAC's total voting power would remain proportional to other company stockholders.

Diller, who is ranked No. 301 on the Forbes 400 List of Richest Americans, has a net worth of $5 billion, largely from his control of IAC, which has owned MGM shares since 2020.

Diller was given a limited, two-year license by Nevada gaming regulators in 2022 because of concerns about questionable stock purchases. However, he was given a full gaming license with no expiration date in 2024 after the Securities and Exchange Commission closed the investigation without finding any wrongdoing.

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IGT's total number of Nevada job reductions may remain a secret

Gaming equipment manufacturer IGT may not have to disclose how many Nevada employees lost their jobs as a result of the company's worldwide 10 percent workforce reduction last month. 

The company declined to disclose how many of its Nevada employees were part of the roughly 700-person layoffs.

A spokesperson with the Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation (DETR) said it's unclear if IGT would have to file a letter under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, which is typically required for large companies doing layoffs or closures. 

"Our office does not regulate whether an employer must submit a WARN notice. Employers may structure layoffs in various ways that may or may not trigger WARN requirements," DETR spokesperson Valentina Bonaparte wrote in an email. "An employer could choose to stagger layoffs daily, weekly, monthly, or even annually. Depending on the number of employees laid off during each period, a WARN notice may not be required."

She wrote that WARN "applies when an employer with at least 100 full‑time employees conducts a qualifying closure or layoff."

In a memo to employees, IGT CEO Hector Fernandez said the move was part of a review process to strengthen the organization's structure. IGT merged with rival casino equipment provider Everi Holdings in a $6.3 billion deal in 2025, making the business a privately held entity and creating duplicate jobs in some areas.

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What I'm reading

🤠 Will Native American tribes build Dallas-Fort Worth's first casino resort? — Yamil Berard, Dallas Morning News

Texas lawmakers haven't legalized casinos. Las Vegas Sands faces competition from Chickasaw, Choctaw and other tribes.

🏗️ What's going on with the Bally's Chicago construction timeline? Jess Marquez, iGamingBusiness

The $1.8 billion resort was supposed to be one of the biggest splashes of 2026, but that looks increasingly uncertain.

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News, notes and quotes

✈️ Reid Airport provides TSA wait times on its website

Harry Reid International Airport is providing travelers with approximate Transportation Security Administration (TSA) security checkpoint wait times on its website. In a statement, airport officials said the feature allows travelers to better plan their arrival at the airport before heading out for their trip. Previously, Reid Airport introduced checkpoint wait times on its flight information display screens inside the terminals. Airport officials cautioned that the estimated TSA wait times can fluctuate by the minute and should not be used to plan a later arrival to the airport. Earlier in the ongoing partial government shutdown, when TSA agents were not being paid, Reid Airport passengers avoided the headaches experienced in other markets with hours-long wait times.