Indy Elections: 2024 voting begins now (yes, really)
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: What’s in that stocking? Why, it’s the first Nevada absentee ballots for the 2024 presidential preference primary election! In our last edition of 2023, we take stock of where we are before those first ballots hit your mailbox. Plus, new polls, new ads, we’ve got it all.
And a scheduling note: Indy Elections will be off for the holidays (insert bah humbug here). We’ll see you in the new year.
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We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes, or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email Jacob Solis, your humble newsletter editor, at [email protected].
Days until:
- Nevada presidential primary: 49
- GOP presidential caucus: 51
- Election Day: 322
It’s beginning to look a lot like election season
By Sean Golonka
What’s that in the air? A familiar Christmas jingle? The smell of fresh-baked cookies? Spooky apparitions appearing to warn about the Christmases yet to come?
No, it’s the sights and sounds of an election! Nevada’s Democratic and Republican presidential primaries — and state GOP-hosted caucus — are right around the corner.
Mail ballots for the Feb. 6 primaries will be sent out in just a few weeks to the vast majority of Nevadans registered as Democrats or Republicans. Voting is set to begin even sooner — by Dec. 23 — for Nevada’s military and overseas voters, who are able to cast their ballots via the state’s online absentee system.
Signs of the impending contests were in full force over the weekend, stamped by the arrival of former President Donald Trump in Reno for a campaign rally.
But Trump’s arrival in Nevada is perhaps as instructive as who hasn’t shown up: any other Republican candidate.
In this final 2023 edition of Indy Elections, we take a temperature check on where things stand in the biggest race on the 2024 ballot.
Warming: Voting
It’s almost here.
By Dec. 23, primary voting will open as certain eligible voters gain access to the state’s Effective Absentee System For Elections (EASE) — an online voting application typically used by Nevadans in the military and living overseas.
Mail ballots will follow not long after. County clerks must distribute mail ballots by a deadline of Jan. 17, though some ballots are likely to be mailed before then. More than 1.1 million mail ballots will be sent to active registered voters in each major party. Few voters have opted out of receiving a mail ballot — the latest count from the secretary of state’s office (taken just after a Dec. 8 deadline to opt out) shows that since January 2022, more than 5,300 Republicans (about 1 percent of GOP voters) have opted out, compared with just 452 Democrats.
Voters have until Jan. 23 to register as a Democrat or Republican to receive a mail ballot for one of the primaries, but with same-day voter registration in effect, people can register and vote in person during the early voting period (Jan. 27-Feb. 2) or on Election Day, Feb. 6.
However, that same-day registration is not allowed for the GOP caucus, and anyone who wishes to participate in the caucus must register as a Republican by Jan. 8, according to the party. The party has also begun to publish a list of caucus locations for Feb. 8 here.
Cold: Presidential contenders caring about Nevada
By our tracking, Trump’s Reno trip marked just the 12th visit to the state this year by a major candidate still in the race. That pales in comparison to the number of appearances Republican presidential contenders have made to early states New Hampshire and Iowa.
The difference in visits between early states — Nevada is third on the Republican nominating calendar — comes as the Nevada Republican Party opted to hold a caucus just two days after the state-run primary. Only the caucus will count for awarding the state’s presidential delegates — a decision that has divided candidates (Nevada will award 26 delegates, out of a total of more than 2,300).
Trump and four other candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are participating in the caucus. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is running in the primary, with her only major competition — former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) — having dropped out of the race. Those three have only visited the state this year to attend the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership summit.
This Sunday marked Trump’s third visit to Nevada this year — a trip number matched only by DeSantis — including a March visit that predated the official launch of his candidacy.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden — who will be on the Democratic presidential primary ballot along with author Marianne Williamson and a host of long-shot candidates — has visited the state just twice this year.
The same story was also playing out in the summer: presidential candidates just aren’t prioritizing the Silver State.
Freezing: Competition
With Republican candidates running in competing contests and Biden expected to cruise to victory in the primary, a key element is missing ahead of the state’s early February elections — competition.
Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner. A dominant force in today’s GOP who remains broadly popular among Nevada Republicans, he is all but certain to take home the highest share of votes in the all-in-one-night First in the West caucus on Feb. 8.
In a contest that will take place just two days earlier, Haley is the only major candidate left on the GOP primary ballot. We’ll be watching how many votes go to Pence and Scott, who ended their campaigns after the deadline to withdraw their names from the ballot. But this race — and the zero delegates that come with it — is Haley’s to lose (though voters can also choose “none of the above”).
Over in the Democratic primary, some of the stiffest competition for Biden could come from no candidate at all. Nevada’s unique “none of these candidates” option offers voters a protest choice to participate without supporting any particular candidate. The performance of that choice could provide some insight into how Democratic voters are feeling about their presumptive nominee.
Lukewarm: #WeMatter
Perhaps the favorite phrase of Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston, the temperature gauge is clocking the Nevada “WeMatter” hashtag at just lukewarm.
The lack of competition and the lack of focus on Nevada relative to Iowa and New Hampshire are driving the temperature down here, but an increasing proximity in time to the primaries is a boost, as we are just 49 (give or take) days from finding out how Nevada’s major party voters feel about the presidential contenders.
What we’re reading and writing
Nevada GOP ‘fake electors’ plead not guilty to felony charges in Las Vegas by Sean Golonka and Gabby Birenbaum
Set your calendars for a March 4 trial date.
Jeremy Aguero’s Nevada: How a well-connected consultant shaped the state over two decades by Sean Golonka
Sean takes a deep dive into the world of the man behind the legislative curtain.
In Reno, Trump looks to stake claim on Nevada GOP ahead of February caucus by Carly Sauvageau and Jacob Solis
Sunday’s rally was Trump’s first Nevada visit since the fake elector indictments.
Reproductive rights group seeks second initiative to protect abortion in NV Constitution by Sean Golonka
If at first you don’t succeed …
AG Ford: 'Nothing changed' ahead of decision to charge Nevada fake electors by Jacob Solis and Gabby Birenbaum
Not pictured: Ford comparing the decision to prosecute fake electors to an episode from Season 2 of “The Crown.”
Clark County Commissioner Ross Miller will not seek re-election in 2024 by Naoka Foreman
One of the most competitive commission seats gets (maybe?) even more competitive.
Indy Ad Watch
In another ad buy in Spanish-language media, the Biden campaign launched the bilingual ad “Nos Ve.” The spot is a contrast ad, comparing Republicans and former president Donald Trump to Latin American dictators. Largely overlaid over working class b-roll, the ad also takes a shot at Trump’s calls to undo the Affordable Care Act.
The ad started running late last week across Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania, with placements on sports channels and “local Latino-owned media properties,” per a campaign press release.
— Jacob Solis
Indy Poll Watch
Morning Consult/Bloomberg (Nov. 27 - Dec. 5)
- 451 registered voters (Nevada) // 4,935 registered voters (six-state sample)
- Margin of error: 5 percent (Nevada // 1 percent (six-state sample)
The latest poll from Morning Consult and Bloomberg confirms much of what we’ve already known for the past couple of months: Positive economic trends have proven cold comfort for an incumbent Joe Biden, who still lags Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head 47 points to 44 in Nevada. Extra-small-sample-size-caveats notwithstanding, adding Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the mix hurts both major parties, but still leaves Trump ahead at 42 points to Biden’s 37 (and RFK Jr.’s 11).
But the crosstabs also give a peak at what issues could end up mattering most, namely health care and abortion access. However, when asked what single issue was most important, 36 percent of respondents said the economy. To that end, now just a year out from the election, how much will the “vibecession” — even as economic indicators have gotten rosier — end up mattering at the ballot box?
Unidos US/Mi Familia Vota/BSP Research (Nov. 2 - Nov. 13)
- 300 eligible voters
- Margin of error: 5.7 percent
The news for Biden and Democrats is much sunnier among Latino voters in the state, according to a poll from Democratic firm BSP Research. Biden’s approval rating is 52 percent among Nevada Latinos — above water, for a change — and he leads a hypothetical matchup among Latinos with Trump by 25 points.
According to 2020 exit polling, Biden won the Latino vote by 26 points.
The poll also has good news for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), who is up for re-election in 2024. In a matchup with Republican frontrunner Sam Brown, Rosen is up 28 points among Latinos — though 27 percent remain undecided.
Overall, Latino voters consistently ranked inflation and the economy — and specifically the rising cost of living — as their top issues.
The poll sponsors also emphasized that their polling found the Latino electorate going to the polls in 2024 will look different than that of 2020. Owing to the transient nature of the state and population growth, 19 percent of Nevada Latinos will be voting in their first presidential election in 2024, and 36 percent of the Latino electorate in Nevada is new since the 2016 election.
— Jacob Solis and Gabby Birenbaum
The Lightning Round
🌽 Nikki Haley gets her Nevada endorsement — If the Nevada in question is Nevada, Iowa (pronounced ne-VAY-da). Haley touted the endorsement of Story County (yes, really) GOP Chair and Nevada Mayor Brett Barker on Monday, in a move that makes us wonder for the eighth time today: #Don’tWeMatter?
👍 Trump doles out more Nevada endorsements — There were few surprises in a list of 16 new Trump endorsements this week for Nevada politicians, a list that included Nye County Clerk Mark Kampf (who spearheaded the controversial push to abandon electronic voting machines last year) and Washoe County Commissioner Jeanne Herman, who earlier this month floated a preliminary proposal to do the same in the state’s second-largest county, per a report from This is Reno.
🍕 Jim Marchant, Joe Pizza and Tommy Tuberville walk into Mar-A-Lago — When last we checked in, we already knew that erstwhile GOP Senate candidate Jim Marchant would be hosted at Mar-A-Lago by a major GOP donor named Joe Pizza. But now, we can add to that guest list Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), who comes fresh off his now-failed bid to hold up military promotions. Whether or not this one fundraiser can make a dent in frontrunner Sam Brown’s campaign will be another question.
🗳️ Your regular legislative update — Assembly Democrats announced a new endorsement for a newly opened GOP-held seat. More details and other announcements on The Nevada Independent’s legislative candidate tracker here.
— Jacob Solis
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- And I cannot stress this enough: The Cat Santa stories will not write themselves.
- Reject (Legislative Building) modernity, embrace tradition.
- No better way to ring in the holiday season and show off your love for nonprofit news than with Indy Seasonal Swag.
We’ll see you next week.
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