Indy Elections: Are Nevada’s Senate candidates aligned with presidential hopefuls?
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Nevada’s U.S. Senate candidates and their party’s respective presidential candidate are aligned, but there are some differences. Plus: Democrats are outspending Republicans in campaign advertising and Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown is on the path to becoming a bookfluencer.
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By the Numbers:
- 32 days until early voting begins in Nevada
- 49 days until Election Day
- 139 days until the legislative session
Harris-Rosen? Brown-Trump? How close are Nevada Senate candidates to presidential hopefuls?
By Gabby Birenbaum
If you’ve turned on the TV or collected your mail recently, you’re probably getting bombarded with two messages in the Senate race — Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has enabled Vice President Kamala Harris’ economic and border policies, and Sam Brown is a MAGA extremist in the mold of Donald Trump.
That messaging is by design — each candidate believes it’s politically advantageous to tie their opponent to their party’s (typically less popular) standard bearer. But it’s also worth examining their positive messaging, where there’s a notable difference. While Rosen is emphasizing her bipartisan bona fides, Brown is leaning in on his Trump connections and the former president’s endorsement.
On policy, each candidate has much in common with their party’s presidential nominee. But while Rosen has a few notable breaks with Harris (dating back to their time serving together as senators) and in instances where she went against the Biden administration, Brown has largely emphasized areas where he and Trump agree and left his stance on other aspects of the Trump agenda murky.
Click here to read more about how the Senate and presidential races intertwine.
What we’re reading and writing
In Nevada, clean energy divides the Senate race by Wyatt Myskow, Inside Climate News
Solar and energy are on the ballot.
Nevada Latinos have more voting power than ever. Here's what that means for 2024 by Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
It takes more than TV ads to court Latino voters.
Indy Explains: How Question 7 would require voter ID in Nevada by Eric Neugeboren
Nevada is one of 14 states that does not require a form of identification while voting.
Trump defends debate performance at Vegas rally, vows to free up federally owned land by Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
Trump tries to capitalize on a bipartisan push to free up more land in the Silver State.
On the Record: Senate District 5 candidates Carrie Buck and Jennifer Atlas by Tabitha Mueller
Democrats’ ability to hold a veto-proof supermajority could come down to this swing district.
Poll: Nevada Latinos backing Harris, but margin with Trump closer than in 2020 by Isbella Aldrete
As The Boss says, #WeMatter.
Trump campaign sues Nevada over alleged noncitizen voting by Gabby Birenbaum
The campaign, so far, has lost three election-related lawsuits in Nevada this year.
Walz tours Reno wildfire command site after canceling rally by Tabitha Mueller
Though the rally was canceled, Walz still made time to visit the northern part of the state.
Indy Poll Watch
The Trafalgar Group (Sept. 11-13)
- 1,079 likely voters
- Margin of error: 2.9 percent
- Findings
- Harris 45.3%, Trump 43.5%
- Rosen 48.2%, Brown 40.4%
The Trafalgar Group’s latest poll of the Nevada electorate found Harris with a 1.8 percentage point lead over Trump — a 5-point swing from the group’s last survey, which found Trump winning by 3 percentage points in early August. The pollster is known to typically favor Republicans.
With Harris’ lead being within the margin of error, this poll doesn’t necessarily tell us anything we don’t know — Nevada is still a toss-up expected to have razor thin margins. But the difference between August and September indicates that Harris picked up steam in the past month.
In the Senate race, the poll continues Rosen’s trend of leading outside of the margin of error. No politicos really think Rosen will win by such a margin, which hasn’t been seen in a Nevada Senate race since 2006. But every poll we’ve seen has Rosen winning by a sizable margin, suggesting Brown has significant ground to make up during the next 50 days.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: New state Senate attack ad is misleading
A new campaign ad in Senate District 11 from the Republican-aligned Better Nevada PAC targets Sen. Dallas Harris (D-Las Vegas) ahead of November. Featuring video footage of unkempt tents, the ad inaccurately warns that Harris sponsored a bill in 2023 “to make homeless camps like these legal in our neighborhoods.”
The measure, SB142, sought to implement a “Homeless Persons’ Bill of Rights” that would guarantee any unhoused person the liberty to “use and move freely in or on public places" to the extent of any other Nevadan. It did not pass out of the Legislature.
The proposed bill did not include language discussing homeless encampments. Proponents of the measure said it would not invalidate any existing local ordinances, and it was designed to clarify the rights of people not living in a house.
Sen. Ira Hansen (R-Sparks) noted during discussions surrounding the bill that “it doesn't change any current laws.” Harris said the legislation was in response to localities “attempting to solve homelessness by making it a crime.”
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: House race disparities
We’ve written earlier this year about how national Republican groups were quietly taking Las Vegas out of their electoral calculus after their return on investment in 2022 amounted to bupkis — million of dollars in, no seats gained.
Now, 50 days out from the election, the ad spending data is quite clear — House Democrats are still dominating the battle for TV time in Las Vegas. This week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched joint ad buys with Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV), Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Susie Lee (D-NV). Each of the three Nevada House Democrats has already booked over $1 million each in ads, with the Democratic leadership-aligned House Majority PAC kicking in additional millions of dollars for good measure. This week, Republicans are completely dark in the House races, with no spending from either GOP candidates or allied groups.
And the future reservation picture is much the same — with no announced buys from the National Republican Campaign Committee or Republican leadership-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, Republican candidates in Southern Nevada combined have only booked about $25,000 worth of ad time before Election Day.
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- The Gov. Joe Lombardo-affiliated Better Nevada PAC began rolling out ads in four competitive races this week: Assembly District 35, Senate District 5, Assembly District 21 and Senate District 11. All but one of the districts are represented by Democrats.
— Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller
The Lightning Round
📚Sam Brown, bookfluencer? — Sam Brown spoke glowingly about former President Donald Trump at the latter’s Las Vegas rally Friday, and gave him a gift onstage — a copy of his memoir, Alive Day.
Trump is not the only influential conservative to be part of the Alive Day media circuit. The book has also been boosted by conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Mike Lee (R-UT) and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake.
📊 Narrow voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans — August voter registration statistics from the secretary of state’s office show Democrats have a less than 1 percentage point voter registration lead over Republicans, accounting for about 30 percent of all voters in Nevada to Republicans’ 29 percent. The state’s nonpartisan and nonmajor party registered voters make up the largest share of registered voters at almost 41 percent. Nearly 34 percent of registered voters in the Silver State are marked as nonpartisan.
✅ Clark County teacher’s union endorses open primary, ranked-choice voting ballot measure — In a split with Democrats, the Clark County Education Association endorsed Ballot Question 3 Thursday. The measure would allow all Nevada voters to participate in primary elections and implement ranked-choice voting for general elections.
📣 PolitiFact weighs in on Nevada Senate race — In a fact check last week, PolitiFact ruled that a proposed constitutional amendment in Nevada would not enact “essentially no limit on access to abortion.” The fact check said Republican Nevada U.S. Senate candidate Sam Brown was “mistaken” when he claimed the amendment would allow for abortion any point in pregnancy and noted that under the proposed change, the state could restrict abortions after fetal viability, except when needed to protect the health of the pregnant person.
👀 Republican State Leadership Committee to aid six Nevada Republican candidates — In a press release Monday, the Republican State Leadership Committee said it would support six Republican legislative candidates in Nevada as part of its efforts to elevate women and diverse down-ballot candidates in the Republican Party. Support is expected to come in the form of funding, training, recruiting and potentially campaign advertising.
In Nevada, the committee is supporting April Arndt in Assembly District 21, Rafael Arroyo in Assembly District 41, Lisa Cole in Assembly District 4, Annette Owens in Assembly District 29, Lori Rogich in Senate District 11 and Diana Sande in Assembly District 25.
— Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller
Looking Ahead
- Tuesday, Sept. 17: Minnesota First Lady Gwen Walz travels to Las Vegas — her first trip to Nevada since her husband joined the ticket — to kick off a coordinated campaign canvass launch.
— Gabby Birenbaum
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Proof that The Boss is a fan of the internet.
- When will campaigns learn that copyright infringement is a real thing?
- Cute hippos are the perfect timeline cleanse.
- Some things are sacred.
We’ll see you next week.
This story was updated at 4 p.m. on 9/17/24 to add that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running joint ads with Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV).