Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 5 percentage point lead over President Donald Trump in Nevada, according to a pollster who found the same lead a month ago and the fourth public survey in a month to show a similar advantage for the Democratic nominee.
The survey, conducted Sept. 10-25 of 641 likely voters by the online aggregator Qualtrics for the international online gaming company BUSR, found Biden up, 46-41, with a margin of error of 4 percent. The survey was done as part of a project with UNLV’s business school.
The poll’s internals look solid (although the sample is slightly Republican in a state where Democrats have a 5 percentage point registration lead), and the result is similar to what the same survey found a month ago. It also mirrors what an ALG Research poll measured during the same few days in mid-September and what a New York Times/Siena poll found in early September.
The outliers this month are a Rasmussen poll reported this weekend that showed Biden up by 1 and a FOX News poll last week that gave Biden an 11 percentage point lead.
The BUSR poll’s crosstabs show Trump and Biden essentially tied among non-major-party voters, Biden ahead by 60-22 among Hispanics and the former vice president ahead by 12 percentage points in Clark County. All of that makes intuitive sense.
Bottom line: Four polls in a month essentially showing the same result indicates Biden has a slight lead here. My suggestion: Follow my early voting blog to understand trends in registration and as ballots come in, which will start happening in the next two weeks.
One more result worth noting: The survey also looked at Gov. Steve Sisolak’s numbers, which are now 45 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval, showing the pandemic has taken its toll. The Republicans will continue to use Sisolak as a stand-in for Biden to deflect blame for COVID-19 aftershocks here away from the president.