The early voting blog

Updated, 10:35 AM, 11/3/20

SOS did an update early this AM, bringing in a few hundred rural numbers — these still don't account for mail that came in from Washoe and Clark — so definitely a lag there. But:

GOP ballot lead in the rurals is now 45K. Best-case extrapolation for Trump means that his lead there going into today is about 60K — that would have him getting 70 percent of the votes there, which is possible. That means he would need — assuming there is no major Dem hemorrhaging in Clark and it remains a close race in Washoe — to get at least 80 percent of the votes being cast in the rurals today in order to have a chance.

Quite the needle to thread. And if Biden wins Washoe by even a few points, game over.

Updated, 6:45 AM, 11/3/20

Good morning, all, and welcome to the end of the beginning.

I may update this blog one more time if any mail updates come in today, but your best bet is to follow me on Twitter (@ralstonreports) and tune in tonight to The Indy livestream starting at 7 PM on the best coast. We will also have a live blog on the site where our amazing team of reporters will continually update with information you need.

Not much new to report. I am told a lot of mail came in Monday, but election officials are preparing for today so they did not count a lot. Dems went up a few hundred votes in the urban areas, so the Clark County Dem lead is now a little more than 90K and the lead in Washoe is at about 2K.

We really don’t know if the files will be updated during the day with mail coming in or how fast it will be reported tonight — there very well may be thousands or tens of thousands of mail ballots to count after tonight, which would give Team Trump fodder if it’s close after the early and Election Day in-person votes are counted. Keep an eye on what is posted in the first batch tonight. (There will be plenty of lawyers vulturing, and the first thing we do...)

Remember these numbers, too: There are about 600,000 votes left, and two-thirds are in Clark County. I will try to track turnout, esepcially in the South.

Again, I commend to you the work of Dr. John R. Samuelsen, who writes early this AM of the remaining urban voters.:

There are more Republicans percentagewise left in Washoe than in Clark (no surprise). However, the biggest group yet to vote is 1) younger independents followed by 2) younger Democrats. Older voters will be dominated by Republicans. Given that older voters are more likely to turn out, I might expect Republicans to make some gains there on election day, but a good turnout by younger voters could prevent this. In Clark, I expect to see Democrats make gains, but much of those may actually be from Monday's and Tuesday's mail ballots.

Another data miner showed me the breakdown of Ds and Rs in Clark (he did not remove the 75K inactives from Clark):

Only 168k of the 512k voted in 2016. Assuming 100% of them show up (some won’t), at most 50% of the remaining 344k show up. Breakdown of remaining voters:

69k Dems voted in 2016, 119k didn’t

50k Rep voted in 2016, 73k didn’t

49k Other voted in 2016, 151k didn’t (these would be least likely to show up)

Those numbers indicate the uphill slog the GOP has in Clark. If 780K or so have already cast ballots, that means if 180K people cast ballots today, it would amount to 85 percent turnout overall — which would be a modern record. Hard to see how Republicans pick up enough ground if Dems just get their basic Election Day turnout, and Culinary has never had a more robust effort.

Washoe is just about done: Almost three-quarters of voters there have already cast ballots. There are about 80K left. If half of them show up, that’s an 86 percent turnout, which would be unprecedented. So 40,000 would seem to be the upper limit there.

Two-thirds of the rurals have voted — 80K voters left. If 50K vote today, that would mean 85 percent turnout. I think that’s possible, but hard to believe it gets higher than that. If Trump wins those 50K by 40 points – also quite possible – that’s another 20K in his ledger and he could be approaching that 80K margin in the rurals.

But the math still doesn’t work for the president unless Biden can’t stay close in Washoe (he may well win there) and actually loses Election Day by a large margin in Clark (highly unlikely).

Always nervous this time of year because the future of the country is always on the line as is my oracular record, not necessarily in order of importance.

Folks, it all comes down to turnout, and the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.

Thanks for following along, and if you have not already, give my staff a boost by donating to our nonprofit.

Updated, 3:15 PM, 11/2/20

So the latest SOS update did not add many voters or change the dynamic much. Looks like only some Nye County ballots were added.

Let’s go through a blizzard of numbers and bend them toward Trump to see if he has a reasonable chance. I won’t bury the lede if you are in no mood for more numbers — I feel ya’ — so the answer is that he has a shot but not a reasonable one.

Stay with me at your own peril.

Clark Dem firewall: 90K

Statewide Dem lead: 47K

1.125 million voters have cast ballots. I am using 1.75 million as the active voter total (subtracting 75,000 inactive voters still on the rolls in Clark; a small fraction of those will vote).

That’s 64 percent who have cast ballots. Turnout in 2016 was 77 percent. Let’s assume turnout gets to at least 80 percent this time, which is about what it got to in 2008 and 2012.

If turnout is 80 percent, that gets us to 1.4 million voters, which seems a reasonable target. And that means 80 percent of the expected turnout is already in — about 10 points higher than 2016 at this time, and there are still thousands of mail ballots being counted.

That means there are about 275,000 voters left. That’s about 46 percent of remaining voters (600,000). That could happen.

And if, as the song goes, that’s all there is, there is only a very, very narrow path for Trump, who is not going to win by 20 points on Election Day (and I will show you why later in this post).

To give even more of an edge to Trump, though, let’s use the 2016 numbers, which showed 70 percent of the entire turnout occurred before Election Day. Overall turnout would be about 1.45 million voters, then, and that would mean 325,000 voters from the remaining pool would have to added to the 1.1 million that have already turned out. And that would mean turnout in Nevada this year will be 83 percent overall – seems unlikely but not crazy.

Still with me?

Let’s look at where the race stands right now.

Biden could have a 47,000-vote lead if indies are tied statewide — a little more if he is winning indies and a little less if he is losing indies. Let’s assume for the sake of this Trump-favorable model that the president is winning indies by 5 percent (few credible polls show this) and take 12,000 off the ballot lead and say Biden has a 35,000-vote lead right now. (I think that’s generous to Trump, but bear with me.)

(By the way, the Trump campaign has been saying he has a 50,000-voter edge with the Election Day model they have, which, if true, means he will probably win a close race. Of course, if Biden is winning indies by just 5 points, the former vice president has a 53,500-voter lead in Nevada right now.)

A refresher on the models with updated numbers:

The first column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and split others evenly, 45 percent to 45 percent.

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

I added a sixth column, which I call the Trump Fantasy Scenario, which shows what would happen if Biden gets 90 percent of Dems, Trump gets 95 percent of Rs, both get 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

2-Nov	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50	90-95-45/50
Biden	547,512	561,419	533,604	561,419	547,512	547,512
Trump	507,882	493,974	521,790	507,882	521,790	541,810
Rest	70,187	70,187	70,187	56,279	56,279	36,259
Biden	49%	50%	47%	50%	49%	49%
Trump	45%	44%	46%	45%	46%	48%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%	3%
Victory margin	39,630 (Biden)	67,445 (Biden)	11,814 (Biden)	53,537 (Biden)	25,722 (Biden)	5,702 (Biden)

Suffice it to say, if Trump wins Election Day by 50,000 votes, he just may win. (I have no idea where/how Team Trump has manufactured that number or if it makes any sense.)

If turnout tomorrow is 325,000 voters, as I said, that means Trump would have to win Election Day by almost 15 points or 187,500 to 137,500. That seems impossible because it almost certainly is. Why?

Several reasons:

---The Democrats are still going to turn out their voters tomorrow – they actually won Election Day turnout in 2016 by 2,000 ballots. And those who have analyzed the data say the remaining voters have a lot of young people and people of color, which can't be good news for Trump.

---Of those 600,000 remaining voters, more than two-thirds are in Clark County. And of those, 150,000 are Democrats and 100,000 are Republicans. Unless you assume an insane rate of crossovers from D to R, and an insane turnout advantage, the Democrats will get enough voters out. About 170,000 indies remain in Clark, too, and it would be unusual for them to come anywhere close to matching the major party turnout and also would be an aberration if they went for Trump in great numbers. If all of that happens, of course, Trump could win. But it’s quite a series of “ifs” that would have to come to fruition.

---Finally, remember this discussion has not yet even considered the Clark County Democrat firewall, which is now just below 90,000 ballots out of 780,000 cast. So what does that mean for Biden's likely raw vote lead in the South? Let’s plug that into the models:

Clark County	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50	90-95-45/50
Biden	401,903	411,724	392,082	411,724	401,903	401,903
Trump	326,063	316,243	335,884	326,063	335,884	348,159
Rest	48,652	48,652	48,652	38,831	38,831	26,556
Biden	52%	53%	50%	53%	52%	52%
Trump	42%	41%	43%	42%	43%	45%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%	3%
Raw vote lead	75,840	95,481	56,198	85,660	66,019	53,744

You can see that even if Trump and Biden are splitting indies in the Democratic stronghold – and that would go against polling and common sense – Biden still would have a 75,000-vote lead already. It’s almost certainly larger than that, perhaps as high as 100,000. And that is likely to grow on Election Day, as it usually does.

For a frame of reference, Clinton won Clark by nearly 82,000 votes after the Dems erected a pre-Election Day firewall of 73,000. So the victory margin in Clark was about 10 percent above the firewall. Those numbers this year would mean a nearly 100,000-vote win in Clark for Biden. If Biden wins Clark by 100,000 – or even 90,000 – there is almost no possible path for Trump.

If there were more votes left in the rurals – there are only 80,000 compared to five times as many in Clark – Trump might have a better chance. But even if Trump is up by 55,000 votes in the rurals right now (possible), he would have to turn out three-quarters of those rural voters remaining and win 2-to-1 to get to the 90,000 votes he would need (at least) to potentially offset urban Nevada. Possible? Sure. But that is the upper edge of where he can expect to go, and I am stretching it for him to get there.

Once again, as always, that leaves Washoe. No smart analyst I know – on either side – thinks Trump will win Washoe after losing it in 2016, and the county turned even bluer in 2018. And even if Trump wins Washoe, it won’t be but by a few thousand votes, which likely cannot save him.

The point of this exercise is to show how much you have to bend the models to get to a Trump victory. As I have been consistently saying, he has a path, but it is as fantastic as the yellow brick road and about as phony as Oz.

Let me know what you think, and please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 9 AM, 11/2/20

SOS just posted an update, with 1.1 million voted, equal to 2016 turnout.

Will do deeper dive later,, but even with rurals in, statewide lead for Dems is 47K. That's 4 percent or right at registration.

More to come.

Updated, 7:30 AM, 11/2/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types:

My predictions column is up, if you are interested.

Not much to report in the way of new numbers — very little Clark mail put into the system, just a few dozen ballots that essentially change nothing. And the SOS has not updated any numbers since Saturday.

We are where we were: About 600,000 votes left out there. Not sure how many mail ballots will be put into the system today that might make it even more difficult for the Republicans. But this much seems clear: If turnout does get to 1.4 million (80 percent and bigger than 2016), that means Trump would probably have to win Election Day by double digits, the same conundrum he faced in 2016 here. (Dems and GOP essentially tied in ballots cast on Election Day; Dems had a slight edge.)

In 2016, I underestimated Trump's rural Nevada win — he won by 58,000 votes. This cycle, I think he will win by at least 70,000, maybe even 80,000. But unless Washoe County, which has been blue the last two cycles, goes to the president by a solid margin, he will probably need a 90,000-vote win in the rurals to win Nevada. That is virtually impossible.

Clinton had a 73,000-ballot lead in Clark going into Election Day; Biden has a 90,000-ballot lead (at least). Do the math: Clinton ended up winning Clark by 80,000 votes. Biden should do better, especially because he is polling better with indies, and even if he just does what Clinton did, the math is very, very difficult for the Republicans.

I’ll update if any more ballots come in.

And don’t forget to watch The Indy’s Election Night show with results and real-time analysis and race calls from yours truly.

Finally, many of you can see how much work has gone into this blog the last three weeks or so. The Indy is a nonprofit news site, so any help would be greatly appreciated.

Updated, 12:30 PM, 11/1/20

For those who are interested in the two key congressional races in Nevada and control of the Legislature, I have some numbers for you:

They are arranged by how many have voted early, who has the advantage there, how many have voted by mail, who has the advantage there and then the leads in each contest.

Bottom line: I still think Lee will be close, Horsford should be fine, those two state Senate seats are slight-edge to the Ds and three of the four pivotal Assembly races in Clark are toss-ups.

(Note that these numbers do not include additional 40K ballots in mail update I posted earlier.)

CD3 (Lee):

177,000 have voted early

GOP+30,000

163,000 people have voted by mail

Dems+38,000

Overall: Dems+8,000 out of 340,000 who have voted

2.5-percent lead (down a point from last update)

66 percent of active voters have voted, so this is likely more than three-quarters of the actual vote

CD4 (Clark part, which is 85 percent) (Horsford):

120,000 have voted early

GOP+8,000

111,000 voted by mail

D+35,000

Overall: D+27,000 out of 231,000 who have voted

12-percent lead (no change)

60 percent of active voters in, so approaching three-quarters of actual turnout

SD5 (Woodhouse)

Early: 29,000

GOP+4,000

Mail: 25,500

D+7,500

Overall: D+3,500 out of 54,500 who have voted

6 percent lead (down a point and a half)

65 percent of active voters have voted, so more than three-quarters is in

SD6 (Cannizzaro)

Early: 28,000

GOP+4,000

Mail: 28,000

D+7,500

Overall: D+3,500 out of 56,000 who have voted

6 percent lead (down 1 point)

Here are the four key Assembly districts, too:

AD2 (Hambrick)

Rs+500. Going to be close, dependent on top of the ticket and any coattails

AD4 (Munk)

Rs+200

See above.

AD29 (Cohen)

Ds+1,500

Leans to the Ds

AD37 (Backus)

Ds+300

See AD2 and AD4

I’ll be making predictions for these and more in a column that will post at 2AM Pacific.

Updated, 8:30 AM, 11/1/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.

The Clark Dem firewall is now above 89,500 with a big new batch of mail that posted overnight. This is well above the 73,000-ballot firewall of 2016 and even above the 87,600 extrapolated number taking into account the increase in voters on the rolls since four years ago.

If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.

I don't know how much more mail will be returned before Tuesday, nor do I know how many ballots will be rejected (the rate so far shows it doesn’t change the lead very much). But the dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.

More than 400,000 ballots have been cast by mail in Clark County and more than 775,000 overall. The number of votes left for Election Day continues to dwindle, and the chances of an overwhelming GOP turnout to turn this around becomes less and less likely.

More later, but the math is just not there for Trump.

Updated, 8:30 PM, 10/31/20

Wanted to give you some modeling to look at with no more mail votes that I see posted anywhere today:

Stay with me – you have this far. I won't bury the lede -- it still looks very tough for Trump here, but let me show you the numbers.

There are somewhere in the neighborhood of 640,000 active voters left in Nevada. They break down approximately this way:

Clark: 460,000

Washoe: 100,000

Rurals: 80,000

There are more than 210,000 Democrats, about 180,000 Republicans and 250,000 non-major-party voters. (These are approximate because of shifting numbers in same-day registrations – there have been about 30,000 so far and Republicans have a 1,000-voter lead. Remember this as a slight wild card on Election Day.)

Before I show you how we can approximate what the overall electorate will look like, let’s go over some history so we have a baseline, even though I repeat my apples-to-oranges mantra because half of the electorate has voted by mail in 2020 when usually that number is under 10 percent:

The general rule is that two-thirds of the electorate vote before Election Day and a third vote on Election Day – the urban areas are a few points lower than the rurals on Election Day.

So far the early voting/mail electorate looks very similar to the state’s voter registration numbers by region:

Clark	68.2%
Washoe	19.0%
Rurals	12.8%

Nothing odd there, although I might suggest the rurals need a big turnout on Tuesday to get to the 14 percent they need to make a real difference.

Turnout so far by region:

Clark: 61 percent

Washoe: 68 percent

Rurals: 63 percent

So Washoe, which had 80 percent turnout in 2016, presumably doesn’t have many votes left to cast – perhaps only about 40,000 (and that is 40 percent of what’s left) unless it goes up to 85 percent, which is highly unlikely. The race looks close there right now. -- Dems have a slight ballot lead.

In the rurals, where turnout was just above 80 percent in 2016, they would need to cast 40,000 or so more ballots to get to 2016 levels. That is, about 50 percent of those voters left – that’s a lot.

In Clark, where turnout was only 75 percent in 2016, there would need to be about 140,000 turn out by Tuesday to get to that level. That’s less than a third of the voters left – so seems very likely. Remember, the Dems have an 81,000 ballot lead in Clark.

(I stipulate that we should include weekend and Monday-Tuesday mail in these calculations, but that is difficult to predict. So I'll just calculate based on what we know.)

Got that?

So I think a minimum turnout model would say 80 percent in Washoe, 80 percent in the rurals (likely higher) and 75 percent in Clark (also likely higher) – that is, the 2016 model.

Let’s see what those numbers look like with an additional 275,000 or so voters added to the rolls since 2016:

Clark: 900,000

Washoe: 245,000

Rurals: 180,000

Total turnout: 1,325,000

Next step:

I am going to assume for the sake of the initial model that Washoe is very close – the last two cycles indicate it is highly unlikely that either side wins by a lot, so let’s say it is very close. So the question becomes for Trump whether he can win by enough in the rurals to offset Biden’s advantage in Clark.

Here's where the math gets very difficult for him.

If Clark (at only 75 percent turnout) has 900,000 voters, Biden has to figure to win it by at least 10 points – it is hard to believe he would do worse than Clinton’s 11-point win in Clark. That’s 90,000 votes. (I think Clark turnout will be higher.)

So how does Trump get to 90,000 in the rurals? Remember he won by 40 points in 2016 and his margin was 58,000 votes. There are now about 40,000 more voters on the rolls, and I still think he tops out at about 80,000, so game over. But could he get to 90,000?

Here’s how hard that is:

If rural turnout is 80 percent, Trump would need to win the rurals by 50 points. Forty was unlikely in 2016; 50 seems crazy in 2020.

If rural turnout got to 85 percent, which I would say is not impossible, Trump would still need to win by more than 45 points. (Right now, GOP ballots are at 55 percent and Democrats at 22 percent.)

Of course, if you think Biden is not going to win Clark by 10, the math changes – 9 points at minimum Clark turnout would be 81,000 votes in Clark. But it also changes the other way if Clark gets to 950,000 turnout and Biden wins by 10; then Trump would need 85 percent turnout in the rurals and a 50-point win.

So you can do all the rejiggering you want with the numbers, but unless Trump can win Washoe by 5 points or so – and no one I know thinks that is likely (indeed they think it’s more likely that Biden wins there by 5) – there is almost no reasonable scenario in which the president can offset Biden’s Clark margin.

Sure, maybe Clark will collapse for Biden or the rurals will have 90 percent turnout. In either of those scenarios, Trump would probably win. But neither seem very likely.

I want to see a little more data before I say for sure, but the math is the math.

I’ll do a deeper dive and look at down-ballot races Sunday.

Please let me know about any math mistakes. You know how to find me. Thanks for reading and support The Indy.

Updated, 1:05 PM, 10/31/20

Welcome, fellow ravenous data types.

Early, in-person voting is over, and the SOS has posted (missing some Clark and Nye votes, it appears).

Here’s where we are – and I am adding the Clark in-person votes not on SOS here and in models below: Clark firewall is holding at 81,000. The final chart shows the Dems are well ahead of their raw-vote pace from 2016, but slightly behind if you extrapolate for the extra 200,000 voters on the rolls.

Big rural turnout pushes statewide lead below 39,000 for Dems. The Rs now lead in the rurals by 44,000 votes. That has to make Dems a little nervous. The statewide lead is now below 2016 lead of 45,000 and well below extrapolated lead of 54,000. That’s only a 3.5 percent edge.

About 1.1 million voters have cast ballots, which is equal to 2016 turnout. But there are 250,000 more voters on the rolls. Some of you want to know if I am ready to call the state for Biden as I did for Clinton four years ago at
this time. Not yet, but it continues to look difficult for Trump.

My hesitation is about more than just fearing a blemish on a pretty untarnished record. I am always nervous about predicting outcomes, but it's a tradition I began many years ago, so can't be faint of heart now. So I will -- and soon. But calling the state before Election Day requires more certainty – with great data comes great responsibility.

As I have been saying as an explanation or excuse, 2020 is not like any other year. There are differences:

No. 1 -- It's not comparable to four years ago because the Democrats have been mailing it in and that has never happened before. The Clark firewall is, relative to the Dems' registration advantage, right where it was at the end of early voting in 2016 -- 11 percent, or right at registration. (The Dem reg lead was higher in 2016 at 14 percent, which gives some Republicans hope.) I’m also not sure how many more mail votes will arrive in the next few days, and how much that will add (subtract?) from the Dem lead.

No. 2 -- It appears the Dems, as they always do, have banked enough votes, even with the changes in voting methods, to feel relatively comfortable. Yes, mail has slowed down and the GOP has been losing by less as the election nears. But, as usual, the Dems leapt out to such a huge lead that it may not be enough for Trump to overcome.

No. 3 -- Judging how many votes are left is difficult. If turnout is 1.4 million, that means there are 300,000 votes out; if it is 1.5 million (this really would be extraordinary), that means 400,000 votes left. But most of the vote is in, and the GOP is probably going to need a substantial victory among the remaining votes.

No. 4 -- The models still look bleak for Trump. Unless something really, really weird is going on that has not shown up in credible polls -- way more Dems than Repubs crossing over, for instance -- the math just does not work for the president unless you really bend the model:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

31-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50	90-95-45/50
Biden	527,700	541,050	514,350	541,050	527,700	527,700
Trump	495,400	482,050	508,750	495,400	508,750	528,400
Rest	67,900	67,900	67,900	54,550	54,550	34,900
Biden	48%	50%	47%	50%	48%	48%
Trump	45%	44%	47%	45%	47%	48%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%	3%
Victory margin	32,300 (Biden)	59,000 (Biden)	5,600 (Biden)	45,650 (Biden)	18,950 (Biden)	700 (Trump)

No. 5 – The indies are a wild card, especially because they have grown so much in four years and now are a huge part of the turnout. Most indicators are that overall they lean to Biden – the urban indies easily make up for the rural ones, most of whom lean R. I still think the outer limit of any model should be Trump winning them by 10, and he is more likely to lose them.

No. 6 – I have, as you can see from previous posts, done a lot of modeling of the rurals (I’ll do another later). I still think Trump will get to at least a 70,000-vote lead there, maybe higher. 80,000 would be out of this world and could make the state very close. I underestimated Trump’s rural margin in 2016 – I said at most 50,000 and he won by 58,000, and I won’t make that mistake again. But those votes are almost used up and getting to 80K seems nearly impossible.

No. 7 – Ballots matter more than polling, but polling matters. Except for the trademarked Adelson Poll and Trafalgar, surveys have shown Biden up outside the margin of error. The data here has shown him with a lead, too. So it’s reasonable to conclude that the state leans Biden, and perhaps more so after so many votes have been cast.

There is a difference between calling a state three days early, as I did four years ago, and making predictions, which I do every year. Predictions coming soon, probably Monday; a race call may not come until Election Night. But keep your eyes on this space.

I'll do a deep dive into the down-ballot races and more later if I can.

If you appreciate the work that goes into this blog and our nonprofit site, please consider supporting The Indy.

Updated, 10 PM, 10/30/20

GOP won in Washoe (1,200) and Clark (500) in-person voting again, but only by a combined 1,700, so Clark firewall pretty intact at 81,000 (I said they needed to be above 80,000 to feel comfortable) and Washoe at 1,700 (they were at 1,000 in 2016 but about 40,000 more registered voters this time).

I looked at rurals counted through Thursday and GOP has about a 40,000-ballot lead or so, which may mean Trump is ahead there by 50,000 or so. Even if he gets that margin up to 80,000 by the end of Tuesday, which would be remarkable, he would still probably lose.

The 36,000 turnout in Clark today diminishes the number of votes left out there for Election Day, and it will go down more once mail is counted. Turnout has been bigger than any year we have ever seen here. I'll create some models to show the possibilities once more data from today comes in.

Bottom line: Dems have to be happy, Republicans have to be worried.

I'll do a deeper dive into data Saturday and maybe the SOS will oblige with some fresh numbers, too.

Then I will decide whether to make a definitive declaration about the state (I predicted Trump would lose Nevada exactly four years ago tomorrow) and my range of race predictions coming Sunday, perhaps Monday.

Sweet dreams, and try not to look at my mentions on Twitter.

If you appreciate the blog, please consider supporting The Indy.

Updated, 5 PM, 10/30/20

SOS has posted a Nevada Day update — have I mentioned how much I love the SOS?

Major changes from this AM:

Clark Dem firewall (with new mail votes) is up to 81K. That is a big number — I have always said the Dems want to get up above 80K in Clark to feel good, and there is still one day left (today) of early voting while mail continues to come in through Tuesday.

Statewide, the lead for the Dems is just under 45K (so the Clark mail offset the rural gains). That’s a little under 4 percent or right at voter reg numbers.

More than 1 million Nevadans have cast ballots, which is closing in on 60 percent of active voters. If 1.4 million vote, which would be slightly above 2016’s 77 percent, that means 73 percent have already voted who will cast ballots in the election. If 1.5 million vote, which would be astounding (85 percent), that means before we see any early votes from today, 68 percent of the vote is in.

In 2016, 70 percent voted early or by mail after two weeks. Where are all these Election Day votes I keep hearing about? Are we really going to have 90 percent turnout?

Clark is up to 69 percent of the vote, with Washoe at 18 and the rurals at 13. That’s not far off what the actual registration is.

Here’s what the models look like with those million or so votes – you can see the Biden lead is holding steady and even in a ridiculously optimistic scenario for Trump, the president still is losing right now in Nevada:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

30-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50	90-95-45/50
Biden	497,739	510,093	485,385	510,093	497,739	497,739
Trump	460,098	447,744	472,451	460,098	472,451	490,699
Rest	63,416	63,416	63,416	51,063	51,063	32,815
Biden	49%	50%	48%	50%	49%	49%
Trump	45%	44%	46%	45%	46%	48%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%	3%
Victory margin	37,641 (Biden)	62,349 (Biden)	12,934 (Biden)	49,995 (Biden)	25,288 (Biden)	7,040 (Biden)

So how dire is it looking for Trump with one day of data coming and much more mail before Election Day?

Pretty dire.

And it may be worse than it looks.

Several folks, including poker pro Andy Bloch and data guru John Samuelsen, have pointed out that the “others” are voting more by mail (136,700) than by in-person (110,400) and that may indicate they are more Democratic-leaning than GOP-leaning. If you allocate proportionally, that’s a decent lead for Biden with indies, perhaps as much as 10 points.

If so, that’s more than game over; that’s a nearly double digit lead for him. Add in that “other” also are younger, as our Tabitha Mueller pointed out today, and the guy in the belltower is starting to walk up the stairs to make the bell toll.

I am that guy, and I’m not quite at the top of that tower yet. And I still may feel like Jimmy Stewart when I get there.

Unlike those data guys, I try to model various scenarios and don’t necessarily think that behavior of how they are voting (mail or in-person) is necessarily correlative. But the theory is pretty sound, especially in a year when the different partisan voting patterns are so stark.

I’ll dive deeper later when I can….

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 9:50 AM, 10/30/20

Washoe reported -- Rs won in-person by 1,200 on Thursday, Dems overall lead there is now under 2,400. Mail-counting (or ballots received) seems to have really slowed there. More than 60 percent of active voters have turned out, probably close to two-thirds of total county turnout for 2020.

Dem lead in Washoe at end of early voting in 2016 was 1,000.

More later if anyone else is working on Nevada Day.

Updated, 6:40 AM, 10/30/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.

Clark mail, following a familiar pattern, offset (and more) the advantage the GOP had in in-person voting Thursday. The total Clark firewall ticked up a bit to 76,000. About 687,000 have cast ballots in Clark, so that Dem lead is about 11 percent, or close to the Democratic registration advantage in Southern Nevada. That’s about what the Dems were at the end of early voting in 2016 – right about at registration, although the advantage in Clark was about 3 points higher in 2016.

No Washoe numbers yet this morning.

Here’s the chart with 2016 totals extrapolated to 2020 registration numbers – i.e. I added 20 percent because of the 200,000 additional Clark voters on the rolls:

Dems won’t get to the extrapolated number – 87,600 – this cycle, but they almost surely will be at the registration advantage – 11 percent or so. This is why, I repeat, their voter registration efforts are so important every cycle – that 5 or 6 percent edge statewide is meaningful, even decisive, when it comes to elections.

Today is the last day of in-person voting before Tuesday. It’s usually a huge day for the Ds, but not sure what that means this year? Can they win in-person voting in Clark? Or just minimize their losses and make up for it in a mail deluge?

I’d guess the latter.

Today is when the state celebrates Nevada Day (it's actually tomorrow), a state holiday, so that may increase turnout. Happy Nevada Day (celebrated), everyone!

More later…

Updated, 11 PM, 10/29/20

Another 30,000 voted in Clark today, with GOP winning by 2,500 -- 11,8K to 9,3K. If past is prologue, will be offset by mail overnight. I'll let you know in the AM.

By the time mail comes in, my guess is, about 700,000 ballots will have been cast in Clark. That's two-thirds of the vote or thereabouts.

Washoe hasn't posted, and I need rest.

More from Day 10 when I get it….

Updated, 6:20 AM, 10/26/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.

Quick early morning update

No Washoe report from Sunday yet.

New Clark mail batch offset 1,300-vote loss by Dems in in-person Sunday, but not by much. Firewall is just under 71K. Possible big batch of mail will be put into file today, but definite slowdown over the weekend.

I'll have more later.

Updated, 10PM, 10/25/20

Clark posted. Very low turnout today, GOP wins by 1,300 votes. Clark firewall down below 69K before mail counted.

Updated, 9:45 PM, 10/25/20

The SOS updated this evening.

Not much change from what I told you -- I have a slightly more up to date mail ballot count in Clark, but close enough: 69K vs. 70K for Clark firewall, 55.6K vs. 57K for the statewide Dem lead because SOS had some new rural numbers.

I may update again this evening if Washoe and Clark in-person come in before I shut my eyes....

Updated, 3:45 PM, 10/25/20

Some new mail in Clark extends the Dem firewall to 70K. Statewide: 57K

I'd estimate close to half the vote is in.

Clark mail: Dems+85K

Clark in-person: GOP+15K

Remember that the Dems had a 73K firewall in 2016 by the end of early voting. But extrapolate that to 20,000 with 200K new Clark voters on the rolls and the analogous number would be 88K.

So the Dems keep building, but here’s the bottom line:

We are not that far from where we were at the same time in 2016, if you extrapolate for 2020 voter reg and turnout. Dems are still a bit above where they were four years ago in combined mail/early voting, but the patters are still difficult to nail down.

No more updates yet today from SOS, but:

I am going to add the new Clark mail for purposes of the models, and you notice a few things.

About 465K have voted in Clark. So that 70K firewall is a 15 percentage point lead, or about 4 points over the actual reg edge.

Statewide, the lead is about 8 percent of the 700K or so who have voted. That’s almost twice what the Dem reg lead is in percentage terms.

So the Dems have a substantial lead, even as they are not gaining quite as much in mail with every batch, erratic though the updates may be.

Here’s the Clark County lead now compared to 2016:

The difference between the 70K firewall right now and the 44K Clark firewall at the same time in 2016 is quite large, although, as I said, there were 200,000 fewer voters in 2016 in Southern Nevada. But even if you make it comparable, 2016’s lead would be 58,000, so it’s still a substantial increase.

If you are looking for patterns in early voting (join the club!), check out 2016 vs. 2020:

You can see there were 2016 weekend turnout dips, too, which may be counterintuitive but nevertheless is so. The upswing in turnout during the second week usually comes during the last five days, with it reaching a crescendo on the last day as both parties try to make a statement.

Will that happen this year – and will it be diminished by those three days after that until Election Day, when more mail will come in, and Nov. 3 turnout?

I still think the Dems, because of the additional voters this cycle and because Election Day could be larger than usual, will not be comfortable if they don’t have a lead well over 80K in Clark by Saturday. The Republicans just want to keep the margins down every day to slow the growth and hope a massive Election Day turnout can make up for the Democratic banked votes – in this way, this year is like many others.

I still think Washoe, where the Dems still have a substantial lead 7,500 ballots, or 5 percent in a county where the GOP has a slight lead), well over what they had in 2016 (it ended up at only 1K), could be the key. This is not your grandfather’s Washoe, and if Biden can do there what Hillary did (win by a little), it’s almost impossible for Trump to win.

---The latest on those six rurals with the significant populations (the other nine are pretty tiny) shows the GOP has a 17K lead there, and is leading 51 percent to 28 percent. It’s going to get much bigger than that, and I think we still have to calculate Trump winning by at least 60K in the rurals. (If that projection is wrong, it’s bye bye GOP.

---Finally, here’s what the model looks like with the new numbers plugged in if the election were held today:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

25-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50
Biden	353,110	361,460	344,760	361,460	353,110
Trump	304,490	296,140	312,840	304,490	312,840
Rest	43,400	43,400	43,400	35,050	35,050
Biden	50%	52%	49%	52%	50%
Trump	43%	42%	45%	43%	45%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	48,620 (Biden)	65,320 (Biden)	31,920 (Biden)	56,970 (Biden)	40,270 (Biden)

You can see the victory margins have not changed much, if you scroll down to see previous models; only the percentages have.

Even if Trump wins indies by 10 here and holds 90 percent of his base, he is still down by 4. You maybe should give some wiggle room for the bases, but they will be close give or take 2 or 3 points.

Bottom line: Biden is winning here right now, by at least 4 and perhaps by more. The Republicans have closed the percentage gap because even though the Dems have been increasing their raw vote lead, it has been diminishing relative to the number of votes that are in – i.e a 56,000 statewide lead is much different in percentage terms with 500,000 votes counted than a 57,000 statewide lead with 700,000 counted.

This week is going to be something to watch.

It’s far from over.

More when I have it….

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 9:15 AM, 10/25/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are after eight days of early voting:

Looks as if the SOS did update last night, but it did not pop through (for me at least). The latest -- and I am going to add Clark in-person/mail (which I now have):

Clark County Dems firewall: 66,000 (44,000 at this time in 2016)

Statewide Dems lead: 54,000 (31,000 at same time in 2016)

The percentage leads are slightly above 2016 -- remember there were 250,000 fewer voters four years ago:

Dem lead is 8 percentage points (43-35); it was 7 points at this time in 2016.

Clark lead is 15 points (46-31); it was the same four years ago at this time (47-32)

(Remember mail Monday could change this.)

So I predicted Saturday after the rurals were added, the statewide Dems lead would be about 55K. And...voila!

Not much change from Friday, although I always caution that the mail comes in batches and very little likely to be processed over the weekend. Here are some numbers/context -- and I will update charts and tables later (remember all my apple/orange caveats because the patterns are so different this year):

Total voted: 670K (just under 40 percent of active voters)

For contrast, 780,000 cast ballots by early/mail voting for the entire election in 2016. That was more than two-thirds of the vote. A comparable number this year would probably be about 1 million voters (depends, of course, on turnout).

Raw vote leads:

Clark: Dems+66K

Washoe: Dems+8K

Rurals: Rs+20K

Percentage of turnout:

Clark: 67 percent (2.5 points under actual)

Washoe: 21 percent (3 points above)

Rurals: 12 percent (.5 points under)

Still more rurals to come in, but two thing:

No. 1 -- Percentage leads right now are not that much different from same point in 2016. Caveat: Mail delay.

No. 2 -- I still think Dems want to be well over 80K in Clark and 54K statewide in their leads to feel confident going into Election Day, especially when R turnout may be higher than usual.

One smart reader reminds me that yet another difference this year is that after early voting ends Friday, mail could still be pouring in from Dems over the weekend and into Election Day. Might add to whatever lead they have after Friday. Luckily, I can track that....

Still a lot of time left. More later when I have it.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 7 PM, 10/24/20

No SOS update today -- I feel like a man without nourishment -- so can't definitively update statewide outlook with rural numbers.

I did get a deeper Clark breakdown and the underlying fundamentals for the Republicans in key down-ticket races are shaky right now. Let me emphasize: A lot of people have voted in Clark County (426,000, including 231,000 by mail and 195,000 in seven days of early voting), at least 40 percent and perhaps closer to half of all who will vote this cycle in Southern Nevada. But there are still 800,000 or so Clark County active voters who have still not voted, so nothing is set in stone.

But, consider these numbers underneath the 67K-ballot firewall the Dems have in Clark:

CD3 (Lee): D+16K, down slightly from last update. 8-point lead. About 40 percent of the vote is in.

CD4 (Clark part) (Horsford): D+22K, slightly up from last update. 17-point lead. Also close to 40 percent in.

SD5 (Woodhouse): D+3.7K, slightly higher than last update. 12-point lead. Again, about 40 percent in.

SD6(Cannizzaro): D+3.7K, slight decrease. 11-point lead. More than 40 percent of the vote is in.

The story is the same in nearly every key Assembly district, too: Republicans are building up sizable margins in early voting, but they are getting overwhelmed by the mail numbers. You can see the gap slowly tightening in the amount of mail vs. the early numbers, but two questions are fundamental to this election:

No. 1 -- Can the Dems keep doing this in the email?

No. 2 -- Will there be enough votes left on Election Day for the GOP to catch up?

Unless there is more crossover going towards the GOP than usual in Nevada, from top to bottom, if both parties get out their voters, the GOP will always lose here. But if they can hold their own in Week 2 of early/mail voting and win Election Day by a lot, they can still win almost any of these races from top to bottom.

I may update later with Clark and Washoe if they report....

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 8:30 AM, 10/24/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark County firewall: 67,000 Dems lead (includes returned mail)

That’s a 7K increase since Friday morning’s update. Much more mail was processed in Clark on Friday and again overwhelmed the GOP advantage in early voting. To wit:

Dem mail advantage in Clark: 81,000

GOP early voting advantage: 14,000

So one week of early voting is in the books, and here’s where we are – caveat that rural numbers are not in yet from Friday, and those almost certainly will reduce the Dem lead by a few thousand ballots:

The Clark firewall for the Dems is way ahead of the pace for the first week in 2016 – 27,000 ballots bigger, or two-thirds. They are almost where they were at the end of the two weeks in 2016, which was 73,000. I still think with 200,000 more voters on the rolls, the fat lady won’t start singing unless the Dems get well above 80,000.

For Washoe, where Dems lead by 8,300, I’ll repeat what I said last night: At the end of a week in Washoe in 2016, the Dems had a 2,500-vote lead. They are triple that pace this year. In 2016, after two weeks, the lead was 1,000.

An urban Nevada lead of more than 75,000 at this points is formidable. After the rurals come in, that means the statewide lead is about 55K or so — that's 10K above where it was at the end of early voting in 2016 and about where the Dems would want it to be this cycle because of all of the new voters.

No matter what happens in the rurals, the GOP needs to reverse this trend in the urbans or it is sayonara.

Still plenty of time and plenty of votes to go – I’d guess we have about 35-40 percent in now after all votes are tallied from Friday. But the chart below shows you what is happening:

A couple of things: I rounded for both years for convenience. Also, the mail for this cycle is coming in batches and reporting depends on how often staff can get ballots entered into the system. The totals can be different depending on when you download the mail file, and the dates on the ballots received may be a little off because of when they were uploaded.

You can see that another data guy, John Samuelsen, has the trend slightly different but the stark differences (and of course where we are right now) are the same. (His research on age of who has voted is worth noting – his findings mirror other places where a lot of young people are voting already.)

Not sure if SOS will update over the weekend, but I will let you know.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 10:25 PM, 10/23/20

GOP won Clark by 3,500 in early voting for the third straight day -- won by 3,000 on Tuesday. Don't have mail yet.

GOP won Washoe by 1,800, but lost mail so gained only 700 on Dems and trail by 8,300.

Perspective: So net loss of 4,200 today in urban Nevada by Dems, but no Clark mail counted yet. And, of course, we know the Dems will lose by thousands in rural Nevada today.

At this time in 2016, after one week of early voting, the statewide Dem lead was 28,500. It's going to be significantly higher than that this year, probably in the high 40s. It ended at 45K in 2016.

At this time in 2016, the Clark Dem firewall was about 40,000 votes. This year: About 60,000. It ended at 73,000 after two weeks in Clark four years ago.

At the end of a week in Washoe in 2016, the Dems had a 2,500-vote lead. They are triple that pace this year. In 2016, after two weeks, the lead was 1,000.

But I repeat what I have been saying: We have never seen an election like this with the GOP winning early voting by these margins every day and the Dems mailing it in as no party ever has. It's much less predictable, and the comparisons to 2016 may not be apt.

Soon we will know if patterns are really patterns. Still rather be the Dems with those large leads, but this is far from over.

Watch this space.

Updated, 6:50 PM, 10/23/20

So let’s dive into the latest numbers and show you what they mean:

After six days in 2016, the Democratic lead statewide was 26,000. It is more than twice that now (56K).

I still think the Dems would want to be at 54,000 a week from today. That’s 2,000 under where they are now.

In Clark after six days in 2016, the number was 36,000 for the Dems, on their way to 73,000. They are at 63,000 now and probably want to be well over 80,000 by the end of early voting.

The GOP goal is to erode those leads over the next week. They will almost surely win early voting every day. If they don’t, that is a blue flag.

Turnout was 23 percent after six days in 2016; it is 29 percent this year. (It ended up being 77 percent four years ago; I expect it to be well above 80 percent this year, maybe even 85 percent.)

There have been 304,000 mail ballots returned so far. The Dems are up, 53 percent to 24 percent, or 86,000 ballots. In 2016, fewer than 80,000 mail ballots were returned for the entire election.

Yes, a bit of a different year, folks.

The percentages of the overall turnout:

Clark: 64 percent, almost 6 percentage points under its actual percentage of active voters.

Washoe: 22 percent, about 4.5 points above its reg numbers.

Rurals: 14 percent, about 1.5 points above its actual numbers.

----Not much has changed in the model of voters who have cast ballots, with the usual assumptions. Trump is losing Nevada right now by double digits or close to it unless something very weird is happening.

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

23-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90/90/40-50	90/90/50-45	90/90/45-50
Biden	266,476	272,054	260,899	272,054	266,476
Trump	218,505	212,927	224,083	218,505	224,083
Rest	31,397	31,397	31,397	25,819	25,819
Biden	52%	53%	51%	53%	52%
Trump	42%	41%	43%	42%	43%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	47,971 (Biden)	59,127 (Biden)	36,816 (Biden)	53,549 (Biden)	42,394 (Biden)

----The SOS made some adjustments to the Washoe/Carson counts after a data entry error that affected yesterday’s chart of Votes Left. You will see some of those changes below.

The Democrats' turnout edge remains above 5 percent – 35.9 percent to 30.8 percent. Thirty percent of active voters have cast ballots now. If you figure about 1.5 million Nevadans will vote, that means more than a third of the eventual electorate has cast ballots.

23-Oct
County	Total	Votes left	Turnout	D left	R left	O left
Clark	1,200,151	869,348	27.6%	325,778	245,143	289,863
Washoe	302,420	189,566	37.3%	57,048	66,834	64,694
Lyon	39,872	28,346	28.9%	4,625	14,063	9,363
Douglas	38,683	22,764	41.2%	3,951	12,612	6,083
Carson	37,221	23,915	35.7%	5,926	10,253	7,667
Nye	33,740	25,128	25.5%	5,097	12,255	7,607
Elko	24,889	17,264	30.6%	2,158	9,308	5,558
Churchill	15,659	10,078	35.6%	1,311	5,581	3,088
Humboldt	8,676	6,300	27.4%	847	3,560	1,824
White Pine	5,213	3,430	34.2%	582	1,892	921
Storey	3,606	2,220	38.4%	383	1,107	730
Lander	3,278	2,041	37.7%	260	1,154	598
Mineral	3,101	2,040	34.2%	487	852	681
Lincoln	3,013	2,227	26.1%	308	1,456	445
Pershing	2,799	1,822	34.9%	287	986	530
Eureka	1,132	740	34.6%	42	847	177
Esmeralda	551	397	27.9%	56	236	102
Total	1,724,004	1,207,626	30.0%	409,146	388,139	399,931
%		70.0%		64.1%	69.2%	78.0%

This chart will become more and more important as we get towards the end to see how many votes are left for Election Day. You can see that despite their turnout advantage, the Dems still have more voters left than the GOP, which likely will have a significant edge on Election Day.

----Some deep dives based on latest granular Clark data:

CD3: D+18K. 10-point lead. A third have voted.

CD4 (Clark part): D+21K. 18-point lead. About 31 percent have voted.

SD5: D+3.5K. 13-point lead. Just under a third have voted.

SD6: D+3.9K. 13-point lead. About 37 percent have voted.

So the GOP needs help in the last week of early voting in all of these places, and maybe in Scott Hammond’s district, too.

So that’s where we are on the eve of the second week of early voting, folks. The Democrats continue to look good, but the Republicans are hopeful they can cut into these leads. They won’t be able to do it all on Election Day, so they will want to make progress in the next seven days. We will know a lot more after this weekend’s voting where we are headed.

Updated, 3:30 PM, 10/23/20

Quick update because of crazy day, friends.

I spent a good part of my day waiting for the good, hardworking folks at the SOS to fix an obvious data entry error (been there, done that) that showed an inaccurate count for Washoe. I'll do another post later, but here are the latest numbers (minus some rural updates that will reduce the Dem advantage):

Statewide Dem lead: 56K. That's 45 percent to 34 percent. The Dems voter reg lead in Nevada is 4 percent.

Clark: 63K Dems lead

Washoe: 9K Dems lead

Rurals: 16K GOP lead

Nearly 30 percent of actiuve voters have cast ballots.

If you want to know why the GOP sued in Clark over mail ballots: The Dems lead 108,000 to 38,000.

More later with more context, comparisons, turn of phrase or two....

Updated, 7:45 AM, 10/23/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 60,000 Dems lead (includes returned mail)

I want to be conservative here, as usual, so first let me say that it appears very little mail was processed in Clark or Washoe on Thursday. It’s possible that there has been a dramatic slowdown, although that seems unlikely.

However, I can only use the data I have, and it shows the Dems have a just under 70,000-ballot lead in mail in Clark and the GOP has about a 10,000-ballot lead in early voting.

In Washoe, the Dem lead in mail is 17,000 and the GOP lead in early voting is about 8,000, so the Dems lead there by 9,000 votes.

That’s a combined 69,000-vote lead in urban Nevada for the Democrats, which is still robust. But the GOP gained in both areas on Thursday because so little mail was processed, and it had been overwhelmingly favoring the Democrats.

Once the rural vote comes in for Thursday, I would guess the Dems statewide lead could be down to 50,000 or so.

With the staggered reporting of mail and in-person, and the different times the rurals and urbans report, it is difficult to get a handle on it.

Bottom line: If the Dems have about a 50K lead, that is still greater than the 45,000-ballot lead they had at the end of 2016 voting, although less than an adjusted lead of 54,000 they would need to match it, considering all of the new voters on the rolls since four years ago.

The real question as we head into the last day of the first week of early voting is whether the GOP can continue to subtract from the Dem lead every day or whether enough mail votes will come in to help the Dems build on the votes they have already banked. If the GOP does continue to subtract from the Dems lead for the next week, this is going to be very close.

If there is any pattern developing – and because this year is so different, I am cautious – the last four days of early voting show the Dems losing ground every day, getting about 9,000 or 10,000 votes a day with the GOP at 12,000 or 13,000. Been pretty steady since Monday, as you can see.

Last day of the first week (of two) of early voting today! I’m here for you all, tired but operating on adrenaline and caffeine.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 10:15 PM, 10/22/20

Republicans won in-person voting again in Washoe and Clark -- by about 1,300 in Washoe and 3,600 in Clark. So a net gain of about 5K in urban Nevada.

I don't have new mail numbers for Clark and the Washoe mail numbers show only about 80 ballots counted, which is odd but possible.

So:

Washoe lead for Dems is down to 9,000. It was 1,000 at the end of two weeks of early voting in 2016, when Clinton won by 2,700 votes there.

Before the latest mail is tallied in Clark, that means the firewall is reduced to about 56K or so. I think the Dems want it to be over 80K before Election Day.

Today's in-person numbers:

Clark:

D - 9,046

R - 12,602

O - 6,487

Washoe:

D - 1,575

R - 2,833

O - 1,222

So what does this mean on the eve of the last day of the first week of early voting?

We still don't have clarity, or even definitive trends in this upside-down year after six days of early voting -- other than the Dems banking tens of thousands of mail votes and the GOP winning early voting the last few days and preventing a Dem runaway.

I'll say it again: This is far from over. Almost a third of the vote is probably in or maybe a bit more, but we just don't know if this pattern will continue.

The Democrats had a 36,000-ballot lead in Clark at this time in 2016 and it would double by the end of early voting. So they are well ahead of that pace so far, but the voting patterns are so different because so many Dems are -- wait for it again -- mailing it in, and the GOP is winning the early vote day after day.

I have been watching this stuff for a long time, as have others, and I don't know anyone who feels confident in any trends or patterns. My mantra this year remains the same:

Need. More. Data.

See y'all tomorrow.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 4:20 PM, 10/22/20

Those charts I promised:

Votes Left:

22-Oct
County	Total	Left	Turnout	D	R	O
Clark	1,199,012	926,279	22.7%	350,073	265,065	303,518
Washoe	302,259	183,827	39.2%	54,901	66,090	62,007
Lyon	39,837	28,311	28.9%	4,625	14,063	9,363
Douglas	38,667	25,006	35.3%	4,466	13,968	6,470
Carson	37,199	19,817	46.7%	5,096	8,090	6,584
Nye	33,704	25,832	23.4%	5,194	12,755	7,750
Elko	24,831	19,426	21.8%	2,510	10,835	5,899
Churchill	15,640	10,941	30.0%	1,454	6,136	3,272
Humboldt	8,663	6,795	21.6%	926	3,888	1,925
White Pine	5,211	3,581	31.3%	610	1,985	953
Storey	3,603	2,328	35.4%	408	1,162	761
Lander	3,271	2,186	33.2%	282	1,254	628
Mineral	3,100	2,136	31.1%	510	902	705
Lincoln	3,009	2,305	23.4%	349	1,483	459
Pershing	2,794	1,904	31.9%	298	1,047	545
Eureka	1,126	776	31.1%	49	871	188
Esmeralda	551	506	8.2%	56	236	102
Total	1,722,477	1,261,956	26.7%	431,807	409,830	411,129
%		73.3%		67.6%	73.0%	80.1%

I should note that the votes left divided by party will not quite add up to the aggregate votes left because counties have been adding voters all along and I don't have the partisan breakdowns. (This will change on Nov. 1 when the SOS reports.) But they are close.

So about a third of Dems have voted, and the Dems have a 5.4 percent turnout edge.

And putting the latest numbers into the models -- still looks ugly for Trump:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

22-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90/90/40-50	90/90/50-45	90/90/45-50
Biden	239,948	244,966	234,930	244,966	239,948
Trump	192,633	187,615	197,651	192,633	197,651
Rest	28,049	28,049	28,049	23,032	23,032
Biden	52%	53%	51%	53%	52%
Trump	42%	41%	43%	42%	43%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	47,315 (Biden)	57,351 (Biden)	37,279 (Biden)	52,333 (Biden)	42,297 (Biden)

More later....

Updated, 2: 50 PM, 10/22/20

Washoe has been updated, and most of the rurals are in (Nye, Lyon and Elko are not, and they would reduce Dem lead a bit more):

Dem lead now at 55K statewide. Note: This includes all returned mail ballots, not all of which have been verified (but most will be).

More than a quarter of active voters (460,630) have cast ballots, which means we are probably approaching a third of the vote being in. Nearly 40 percent of active voters in Washoe are in! It's possible that nearly half of those who are going to vote in Washoe have voted.

Revised with new numbers (still lagging almost 30K of Clark mail):

Percentage of turnout:

Clark: 59 percent, which is about 10 points below what it will be if it's close to 2016

Washoe: 26 percent (8 percent higher than 2016)

Rurals: 15 percent (2.5 percent higher than 2016)

The GOP lead in the rurals is now up to 49 percent to 30 percent -- and it will get higher (already is probably 20-plus percentage points once Nye and Elko are added). Raw ballot lead there is 14K. (Reminder: Trump won the rurals by 58K in '16.)

Tied up this afternoon, but will try to update those two tables from Wednesday very soon....

Updated, 12:30 PM, 10/22/20

The SOS has updated, sans some rurals and Clark/Washoe early/mail from Wednesday and (so add a few thousand votes for the Dems to these totals depending on when they updated the mail number). Here’s where we are:

Statewide: Dems have a 59,500-ballot lead (it’ll be above 60K once the Clark/Washoe number is updated). That’s 14 percent. The Dem voter reg advantage is 4 percent, so they are 10 percent above that.

Note: These numbers are skewed a bit by the lack of rural reporting. Once they report, it will reduce the Dem statewide lead by a few thousand votes.

The statewide lead at the end of early voting in 2016 was 45,000; after five days it was 25,000; it’s more than double that this year. If you adjust for all of the new voters, the analogous number this year for the lead after two weeks would be 54,000.

So the Dems are ahead right now (59,500) of where they would want to be to match 2016 by the end of early voting (54,000) a week from tomorrow. The GOP believes it can win the vote statewide from now on, which would make the margin manageable, theoretically. So it ain’t over…

I think the adjusted goals for the Dems to feel comfortable going into Election Day are a 54,000 statewide lead and about 88,000 in Clark. Only caveat here is if the Washoe lead stays pretty large – it was Dems +1,000 at the end of early voting in 2016 and is 11,000 now) – then the Clark firewall does not have to be as large as 88K.

The GOP won early voting by 2K in Washoe and 3,600 in Clark on Wednesday. The Washoe site finally updated, and it appears the GOP gained about 500 votes. If the Republicans keep up that pace in urban early voting, and mail continues to slow, they will cut into the Dem lead. If.

The preliminary totals (I used the updated Washoe numbers) before the late afternoon update:

Turnout: 427K, or 24 percent

Clark: Dems +58K (actually closer to 63K when new mail/early is counted)

Washoe: Dems +10K

Rurals: GOP +9K

Percentage of turnout:

Clark: 64 percent (now only 5 percent below what it was in 2016 election overall)

Washoe: 22 percent (4 percent higher than 2016)

Rurals: 14 percent (1.5 percent higher than 2016)

If the rurals are 14 percent of the vote by the end of the election, that means Trump could win there by a significantly higher number than his 58K victory in 2016.

Hope to have more complete numbers later today and will update tables I posted Wednesday.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 9 AM, 10/22/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 63,000 Dems lead (includes returned mail)

Statewide: No Washoe numbers from Wednesday yet (I am told they are posting any minute), so will update when they show up (my guess is once Washoe/rurals come in, it will be close to 60K)

I see a lot of irrational Democratic exuberance (sorry, Alan) on Twitter about the numbers, albeit not from Dems who get it and are cautious. Let me be blunt: This is far from over.

Sure, you’d rather be the Dems, who, as usual, are banking votes before Election Day, although with a different voting method (mail) this cycle. But even though the lead is quite large – the firewall is double what it was in 2016 in Clark after five days and only 10,000 short of what it ended as after two weeks in ‘16, consider:

In 2016, there were about 1 million voters in Clark County. So a 73K lead was 7.3 percent of those voters. In 2020, there are about 1.2 million voters, and 7.3 percent of that number is 87,600.

I am not so sure that the Dems will be confident with a 73K lead going into Election Day this year, even though it was in the 70K neighborhood the last two presidential cycles when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton won. The caveat here is Washoe, where the Dems have done well enough (Clinton won by a point) to really hurt the GOP statewide.

I am sure smart Dems know that while they look good right now, there are nine days left of early voting and if the mail slows down (it already has, although it continues to more than make up for the GOP in-person leads every day, more than doubling it Wednesday), the Republicans could keep the firewall number at a level that gives them a shot.

Rural turnout – and margins – also could still be important. I’ll have more on that later. It could help the GOP reduce the Dem margins day by day.

About 330,000 voters in Clark have cast ballots so far, which is more than a quarter of active voters and may be close to a third of the turnout in Southern Nevada once all is said and done.

The real question, as it always is in presidential cycles here, is this: Can the Dems bank enough votes before Election Day so that Nov. 3 can’t change the outcome in the presidential contest? They did that in the last three cycles, but this is a different year with all the mail (and the GOP threatening to sue over it) and we don’t know if Election Day, usually a third of the vote, will be much larger this cycle and/or a big win for the GOP.

I’ll know more when I have…more data.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 11 PM, 10/21/20

GOP won the day in Clark early voting again, with numbers not so different from Tuesday:

D -- 9,323

R -- 12,899

O -- 6,338

So a 3,600-vote GOP win cuts into the 60K Clark Democratic firewall, pending mail ballot tabulating. It was 33K at this point in 2016.

Until the morrow...

Updated, 4:30 PM, 10/21/20

I am going to use the latest SOS update to show you where we are officially. This will be very conservative, i.e. not using the returned mail ballots but only the accepted ones. (This shaves 10K off the Clark County firewall, leaving it at 50K and not 60K because not all of those returned ballots have been accepted for counting yet, although most will be.)

So:

20 percent of active voters have cast ballots. If turnout is 80 percent, a quarter of the vote is in. If it’s 90 percent, 22 percent is in.

The Dems have a 55,000-ballot statewide lead under this conservative scenario. That’s 46 percent to 32 percent.

Every county but the biggest (Clark) and the smallest (Esmeralda) are over 20 percent now. Clark is at 16 percent under this snapshot.

What do these numbers mean?

A few scenarios if we stopped and the election were held right now with these numbers:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

21-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90/90/40-50	90/90/50-45	90/90/45-50
Biden	190,225	194,096	186,354	194,096	190,225
Trump	147,361	143,490	151,231	147,361	151,231
Rest	21,842	21,842	21,842	17,971	17,971
Biden	53%	54%	52%	54%	53%
Trump	41%	40%	42%	41%	42%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	42,865	50,606	35,123	46,736	38,994

So you can see even under the most favorable scenarios, Trump is losing by double digits in Nevada. You see the work Team Trump has to do, too, although there is still time to change this dynamic.

I have also updated the Votes Left table to show you what is happening:

County	Total	Left	Turnout	D	R	O
Clark	1,197,860	992,818	17.1%	380,802	286,708	318,837
Washoe	302,142	206,464	31.7%	63,307	74,991	67,454
Lyon	39,750	31,356	21.1%	5,374	15,750	10,059
Douglas	38,651	27,391	29.1%	5,048	15,339	6,918
Carson	37,159	23,100	37.8%	6,019	9,804	7,270
Nye	33,668	25,796	23.4%	5,194	12,755	7,750
Elko	24,801	19,396	21.8%	2,510	10,835	5,899
Churchill	15,605	11,552	26.0%	1,544	6,583	3,381
Humboldt	8,640	6,772	21.6%	926	3,888	1,925
White Pine	5,189	3,855	25.7%	679	2,158	1,007
Storey	3,598	2,484	31.0%	448	1,249	795
Lander	3,259	2,312	29.1%	298	1,356	648
Mineral	3,091	2,289	25.9%	563	983	733
Lincoln	3,000	2,390	20.3%	370	1,534	481
Pershing	2,791	2,124	23.9%	345	1,185	583
Eureka	1,124	846	24.7%	57	925	198
Esmeralda	548	503	8.2%	71	299	133
Total	1,720,876	1,361,448	20.9%	473,555	446,342	434,071
%		79.1%		74.1%	79.6%	84.6%

Dems have a 5.5 percent turnout advantage (25.9 - 21.4); because of their registration advantage, they still have more voters left out there. In Clark, which continues to lag in turnout compared to the other counties, the Dems have 100K more voters left than the GOP.

In the six rural counties that really matter, the ones with significant populations, the Rs now have a 47 percent to 31 percent lead. Even though the “others” in those counties will substantially break for the GOP, that is not overwhelming. It could get there, though.

There are still 1.4 million eligible voters who have not cast ballots. It's an unpredictable year. Nothing conclusive yet!

----One quick note to say that the big numbers in Clark for Dems are, of course, trickling down. Even though the GOP is winning early voting in key districts, the Dem mail turnout is overwhelming (3 to 1) in the two key congressional districts and those two key state Senate districts (3 to 1).

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 12:25 PM, 10/21/20

The news for the GOP looked promising in both urban areas Tuesday with in-person voting counts. But the updated mail counts paint a grim picture after four days of early voting. The facts:

The updated SOS page does not have the most current Clark numbers on returned ballots – I didn’t believe reports I was getting so I checked the cumulative file myself:

Ds – 93.5K

Rs – 32K

O – 37K

So a 61.5K lead in returned ballots (remember some of those will be rejected, but the lead won’t change much). Early voting is about even between the parties so far, so in essence the Clark firewall is more than twice what it was at this time in 2016 — and within 12K of what the final firewall was at the end of early voting.

The different ways mail ballots are counted is frustrating when trying to get a clear picture, but the data file does not lie, and again, I checked it myself. (Even the SOS has the firewall in Clark at 50K, which is large for this point. The difference probably is as simple as when they pulled the Clark ballot file. It is constantly updating.)

The Dem lead in Washoe is now 11K, so the overall urban lead for Dems is 72.5K.

The rurals are starting to come in, and the GOP is, as expected, starting to pile up votes there. The SOS shows it at about a 9K lead for the GOP now in rural Nevada.

So the statewide Dem lead is 63,500. At the end of early voting in 2016, it was 45,000.

(The SOS, which does not have the updated Clark mail numbers, has it at 51,000, which is still a 14 percent edge. It’s actually larger than that. Pro tip: Trust me above all on numbers! I’m obsessed enough to always have the most up-to-date ones. And I always confirm and reconfirm.)

The Dems are ahead by more than 2 to 1 in mail. Nearly twice as many people have voted by mail as they have in-person, where the GOP leads by 13,000 votes statewide.

More than a fifth of the people who are going to cast ballots in this election have voted. It might be closer to a quarter of the vote, depending how high turnout is.

And I want to repeat again, and probably not for the last time: We don’t really know yet where this is going. Maybe two-thirds will vote before Election Day, per usual, just with a different mix of methods (mail more than in-person). Maybe not. And we don’t know if this pattern – does four days a pattern make? – will hold for the full fortnight.

Luckily, you have me to track it.

I’ll have some charts and models later, if I can.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 7:45 AM, 10/21/2020

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are with the data I have – and I am hampered by a lack of mail ballot returns from Clark and rural early/mail numbers:

Clark Dem firewall: 41,000

Washoe Dem lead: 11,000

Statewide Dem lead: 48,000 (estimated after rurals come in)

Remember these numbers will change once I get more, later this morning, I hope. This is the best available data I have.

----Continue to keep in mind that this is an upside-down year – even in the red wave of 2014, the Republicans did not win Clark the way they had prior in the last two days in early voting. On the other hand, the Dems have never swamped the GOP in mail the way they have this cycle, which has much more than offset the in-person losses.

So far.

The mail ballots seem to have slowed down, but it’s unclear if it’s just a tabulation slowdown or an actual change in volume. Again, we will know more later.

----I am amused by those who incessantly hector me on Twitter to tell them WHAT THIS MEANS. I am always conservative in this effort, as those of you know who have read this blog in past cycles. I make predictions when I feel confident – we are far from that moment, especially in this upside-down year where nothing is as it was before.

One of the key questions is whether two-thirds of Nevadans will still vote before Election Day, as they usually do, but perhaps with a different mix of methods – i.e., many more mail ballots than usual. Here’s a comparison:

Through Day 4 in 2016, 230,000, or 16 percent, had voted early or by mail.

The raw vote turnout number is significantly higher this year (waiting for more data to see how large it is), but the percentage of voters who have cast ballots is very similar. The Clark Dem firewall is a little less than twice what it was at this time in 2016, but this year, instead of gradually adding to it, the pattern (so far) has been for the GOP to nibble away at it in early voting.

----One thing seems clear: The GOP will need to keep winning early voting to be competitive here. We are only four days in, and the in-person numbers in Clark are close. But in both urban counties, the raw vote leads for the Dems are much larger than they were at comparable times in 2016 – that’s why the GOP needs to whittle away at that every day and hope the mail volume decreases.

Here’s the latest 2016/2020 comparison on early voting in Clark, and you can see the last two days were pretty similar:

Two days does not a pattern make. But the last two days, the Dems have been in the neighborhood of 9-10,000 ballots and the GOP in the ballpark of 12-13,000. If – IF – that were to continue for the next 10 days, that would be a net gain of as much as 30,000 for the GOP. It could be offset by mail votes, but that’s also unclear right now.

----One big difference this year is that Clark turnout relative to the rest of the state is way down – I showed that in an earlier post. Washoe turnout is way up – about a third of the vote has been cast there already, (even if the turnout turns out to be super-high overall). Clark is about 12 points lower than what its usual percentage of the turnout is – that is an opportunity for both parties, but more so for the Democrats because of their huge registration lead.

If you are wondering if there is a difference between Election Day turnout in the three areas of the state, here’s what it was in 2016:

Clark: 233K (30 percent)

Washoe: 62K (23 percent)

Rurals: 49.5K (33 percent)

----The importance and predictability of the Clark firewall is worth a comparison, too: When it was 73,000 in 2016, when the first numbers popped up on Election Night, a count of all those early/mail ballots, Clinton’s lead in Clark was 64,000. So it is pretty predictive. That lead slowly grew to 82,000, which was more than enough to offset Trump’s 58,000-vote win in rural Nevada.

----Finally, there was a poll released this AM that showed Biden up 9 in Nevada. I don’t like the party breakdown – 37-27, Ds – and the Hispanic number (21 percent) seems a tad high. But even if you weight it correctly, Biden is still up 6 here. I take all polling with a grain of salt, especially once I have data to analyze, but I report that for what it’s worth because it is in line with most other reliable polls.

More when I have it….

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 6 AM, 10/21/2020

Clark posted Tuesday in-person voting overnight (still waiting for mail):

D -- 10,512

R -- 13,568

O -- 6,211

GOP pushes Dem firewall in Clark down towards 40K, but caveat is I have not seen a mail update yet.

I'll do another post later this morning.

Updated, 11:25 PM, 10/20/20

Clark not in yet, and I am sleepy, so:

Washoe early vote:

D - 2,264

R - 4,136

O - 1,609

Washoe mail:

D - 1,411

R - 619

O - 518

Washoe cumulative mail/early so far:

D - 38,787

R - 28,010

O - 17,904

So: Net gain of 1,080 for the GOP; Dem lead now at 10,777. The Democratic lead in Washoe after four days of early voting in 2016 was 3,000.

28 percent of active voters (84,701) have cast ballots, which probably means about a third of the Washoe vote is in.

Pace of mail has slowed, early vote has picked up. Let's see if that trend, which should help the GOP, continues.

Reminder that at end of early voting in 2016, Dems had a 1,000-vote lead in Washoe and Clinton won by 2,700 votes.

More tomorrow.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 2:30 PM, 10/20/20

Minor SOS update with rurals reduced the Dem lead a bit:

281K total ballots cast: 16 percent

Mail: Dems+54K

In-person: GOP+7K

Statewide Dem lead is 47K or 48-31.

More detail later....

Updated, 12:15 PM, 10/20/20

The SOS has updated both of its key pages, here and here. Here’s what we know:

----About 280,000 ballots have been cast – this includes all returned mail and in-person. That’s nearly 16 percent of active voters. This does not include an update on mail from Clark County, though. The Democrats have a 48,000 raw ballot lead in the state, or 17 points. The percentage lead is dropping (hello, rurals and in-person voting!), but the raw ballot lead is increasing. It was 45,000 after two weeks in 2016.

----The Clark firewall is at 44,500 – it was 73,000 after two weeks of early voting in ’16.

----In 2016, Clark was 69.5 percent of the vote, Washoe was 18 percent and the rurals were 12.5 percent. Right now, those numbers: Clark, 56 percent; Washoe, 28 percent; rurals, 16 percent. So Clark is way underrepresented now if turnout is comparable to 2016 – or other years. And Washoe, where nearly a third of those who are going to vote may have voted already, is way overrepresented. Keep an eye on Clark as its percentage grows – if the Dems keep crushing it in mail in Clark and the GOP can’t make up for it in early voting, the lead will become very large. But the large number of voters also gives the GOP an opportunity — through early voting and/or on Election Day — to cut into the margin.

----Mail ballots returned compared to early voting is 2 to 1. (It’s also 2 to 1, Dems over Repubs.) This never happens, so it’s a very different pattern. How different? In 2016, it was early voting by a 9 to 1 margin. Just so you know, the mail ballots accepted for counting – those not awaiting signature verification or curing – have about the same percentages between Ds and Rs.

----Tale of two states:

Urban Nevada = Dems +54K

Rural Nevada = Rs +6K

----It’s still unclear how much of the total vote will be eaten up before Election Day. It’s usually two-thirds, but with the Dems mailing it in and the GOP wedded to in-person voting, that may change. It may be part of the reason Clark is so far down – Republicans usually win or do very well on Election Day. They may need a landslide this year, which could happen if many wait until Nov. 3 to vote.

----The percentage of non-major-party voters is about 22 percent. In 2016 at the end of the election, that number was 24 percent.

Quick look at key Clark races down-ballot – remember these do not include a day of early voting/mail tabulation:

CD3: Rs +1,500 in early voting; Ds +16,000 in mail.

CD4 (Clark part): Ds +1,600 in early voting: Ds +14,000 in mail.

SD5: Rs +1,500 in early voting; Ds +3,000 in mail

SD6: Ds +4 in early voting; Ds +3,200 in mail.

So the Ds have big leads in all of these, thanks to the mail ballots.

Still tons of votes left – low double digits in voters turned out so far – so nothing is set in stone. But I wonder if Republicans are getting worried about the likes of state Sen. Scott Hammond, whose district was not thought to be in play but where Dems have a more than 2,500-vote lead right now.

More later….

Updated, 7 AM, 10/20/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 42,000 Dem lead (13 percent of active voters have cast ballots)

It was 73,000 after two weeks of early voting in 2016.

Statewide: 52,000 Dem lead (without rurals from Monday, 13 percent of vote in)

It was 45,000 after two weeks of early voting in 2016.

So the statewide lead will be diminished a bit once the rurals come in, but a 54,000 lead in urban Nevada because of the mail explosion is something. Let me show you how this compares to 2016 in three charts:

This shows early voting in the last two cycles:

This is mail in the last two cycles:

This shows combined the last two cycles (only two days this year):

You can see that GOP early voting this year is not that different than 2016, but the Dems have fallen off as they have mailed it in. The question is if the Dems can keep this up in mail.

A quick look at a question I have been getting a lot: Which way do the non-major party voters lean?

Scroll down and you can see some modeling I have done. Generally, I think Trump needs to win others by double digits to have a chance here. Exit polls in 2016 showed he won them by 13, but remember these are self-identified indies, so I'm not sure how accurate that is. But: He clearly had to do well among indies to come within 2.5 points in 2016 because of the Dem registration advantage.

Polls this year, for what they are worth, are not consistent. The NYT/Siena poll showed Biden up 5 with indies while CBS showed Trump by 7 with indies.

Generally, indies in rural Nevada are very conservative while the urban ones lean more left. That's one reason I am keeping a close eye on rural turnout — Trump needs to run up the score there as he did last time with a record-setting 58,000-vote victory. Most of those votes are not in yet.

There are more indies than ever in Nevada, and they could make the difference.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 10 PM, 10/19/20

Clark in-person from today is in:

R – 12,865

D – 10,844

Others – 5,898

So weird to see GOP crush it in early voting in Clark. But that's because Democrats are -- yes, I'll continue to say it -- mailing it in.

Dem lead in mail is massive, so shaves 2K off lead and it is still at 42K in Clark -- an increase of 6K votes since this AM's update. It was 24K at this point in '16.

Waiting for Washoe....

And it just came in -- a quarter of active voters have now cast ballots there:

GOP+1,700 in in-person

Democratic - 2,299

Republican - 3,987

Other - 1,436

Total - 7,722

Combined mail/in-person:

Democratic - 35,112

Republican - 23,255

Other - 15,777

Total - 74,144

Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

Urban lead in Nevada: 54K. It was about 74K at the end of early voting in 2016.

I still think the rural tsunami is coming.

See you tomorrow, faithful readers.

Updated, 8:00 PM, 10/19/20

Waiting for Washoe and Clark early voting from today, but Clark mail came in:

Dems gained 8.5K ballots since the last update -- 11,000 to 2,500. It is 60 percent to 19 percent in mail. Dems lead by 2,000 in early before today's voting.

So:

The raw ballot lead is now 44,000K -- a 30 percentage point lead.

Reminder: After two days in 2016, it was 18K on the way to a 73K Dem lead after two weeks in Clark. But this is a different year, as I have said, using whatever fruit analogy you like (apple-orange-pineapple).

So many more mail votes than usual and 155,000 have already cast ballots in Clark; in 2016 at this time, it was 84,000. So almost twice as many, mostly because mail started a week before early voting did.

Something's gotta give. Hard to believe this pace will keep up.

Lots of votes left. Only 13 percent turnout of active voters.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 4:20 PM, 10/19/20

As usual, my timing was impeccable. The SOS updated as I posted this, although not too many votes added. Only additions I see are from Washoe (Dems lead down to 12K) and a handful from Nye.

So:

160K mail ballots have been accepted for counting, and Dems lead 53 percent to 35 percent, or 45,000 ballots. Of all mail returned (175,000), the lead is the same. Overall, it is 49 percent to 29 percent, or about 44K statewide.

Republicans lead in-person on SOS site by a little more than 1,000, but that is not up to date. It does not include yesterday's Clark in-person, but that doesn't change much.

221K voted, 12.5 percent.

Updated, 2 PM, 10/19/20

While we wait for numbers, time to take a look at turnout by county and how many votes are left:

County	Total	Left	Turnout	D	R	O
Clark	1,191,349	1,076,171	9.7%	423,767	315,191	337,253
Washoe	301,430	236,070	21.7%	75,394	86,866	73,810
Lyon	39,607	34,725	12.3%	6,018	17,941	10,736
Douglas	38,565	31,635	18.0%	6,129	17,852	7,654
Carson	37,152	28,397	23.6%	7,573	12,620	8,204
Nye	33,571	28,387	15.4%	5,726	14,359	8,302
Elko	24,649	22,225	9.8%	2,978	12,712	6,535
Churchill	15,561	13,293	14.6%	1,866	7,690	3,737
Humboldt	8,607	8,031	6.7%	1,188	4,664	2,179
White Pine	5,178	4,408	14.9%	805	2,408	1,195
Storey	3,606	2,977	17.4%	572	1,520	885
Lander	3,249	2,773	14.7%	376	1,674	723
Mineral	3,081	2,654	13.9%	690	1,140	824
Lincoln	2,995	2,596	13.3%	412	1,676	508
Pershing	2,780	2,269	18.4%	372	1,290	607
Eureka	1,120	1,025	8.5%	72	1,059	232
Esmeralda	548	518	5.5%	73	310	135
Total	1,713,048	1,498,154	12.5%	534,011	500,972	463,519
%		87.5%		83.6%	89.3%	90.3%

Some thoughts:

---So 12.5 percent of active voters have cast ballots. (My usual caveat that some mail will be thrown out.) Dems have a significant turnout lead so far -- 16.4 percent to 10.7 percent. The Dems have 34,000 fewer voters left to turn out.

----The Washoe turnout is really something. Remember the Dems have a significant lead there right now -- 13,000 ballots or so.

----I am struck by how many votes are left in the half-dozen of the larger rural counties and just how many are Republicans. If you look at the current numbers there, the GOP rural tsunami is coming -- they just don't like mail. To wit:

Lyon: Dems+600

Douglas: GOP+400

Carson: Dems+300

Nye: GOP+12

Elko: GOP+300

Churchill: GOP+300

Let me show you how illusory that is for the Dems: The GOP now leads in those six counties by a combined 100 votes. In 2016, Trump won those six counties by -- wait for it -- a combined 46,000 votes.

The Rs have not yet begun to turn out in the rurals. The deluge cometh.

The question is if the urban mail will continue to flood in for the Dems to counteract it.

More later....

Updated, 7:50 AM, 10/19/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 36,000 Dem lead (11 percent of active voters have cast ballots)

Statewide: 44,500 Dem lead (12 percent of vote in)

So the Clark firewall is about half of what it was (73,000) after the entire two weeks in 2016, and the state lead is already where it was after two weeks in 2016.

In 2016, after two days, 85,500 people had cast mail and in-person ballots in Clark and the lead was 19,000 for the Dems, or 52 percent to 30 percent. This year, after two days, 137,000 have cast mail and in-person ballots in Clark, and the lead is nearly double 2016 in raw numbers, although the percentages are not as different: 53 percent to 26 percent.

Whether this year is the apple or the orange, the point is made, and I resort to Stephen Stills: There’s something happening here, and what it is ain’t exactly clear.

Because of the explosion in mail balloting, 12 percent of active voters have cast ballots. Even if the turnout is 90 percent, which would be unprecedented, that means 13 percent of the ballots already have been cast. (Not all have been accepted, but even if you ignore those for now, it doesn’t change the math much.)

Let me show you how different this year is compared to 2016:

In 2016 after two days of early voting, 92,000 people had cast ballots statewide in person; this year, when all the numbers are in, it will be about 62,000, give or take. So it is down by a third.

In 2016, the total number of mail ballots cast for the entire election was 80,000; this year, it is already more than twice that – with two weeks to go!

In 2016, about nine times as many people voted early in-person in toto compared to those who voted by mail; this year, four and a half times as many people have voted by mail as in-person.

One quick note about extrapolating what the Clark firewall has meant the last two presidential cycles:

In 2016, when it was 73,000, Hillary Clinton ended up winning Clark by 80,000 votes (11 percent).

In 2012, when it was 71,000, Barack Obama ended up winning Clark by 100,000 votes (15 percent).

We don’t know what Election Day will look like this year – Republicans usually do well and may do even better this year – but even using the lesser multiplier of 2016, the Clark firewall is a pretty good indicator of what the actual margin will be.

Consider: If 1 million voters turn out in Clark County – that would be turnout above 80 percent – that means the Dems would want to win by 100,000 votes, or 10 percent, to feel comfortable. So they would want the firewall to be at least 80,000 this cycle, maybe more. (There are almost a quarter of a million new voters in Clark since 2016.)

I think Republicans are confident they can cut the margins by winning in-person almost every day. Maybe. But even if they do, can they win it enough to cut the mail margins in the urban areas, which have been huge for the Dems so far? (The Dems have a 13,000-ballot edge in Washoe, and despite the GOP win in in-person – 600-plus votes – on Sunday, the Dems lead by almost 2 to 1 in combined ballots. The Dems only had a 1,000-ballot lead after early voting in 2016, and that was enough for Clinton to eke out a win there. Washoe is a real problem right now for the GOP.)

I’ll add more numbers later and a chart or two if I have time, but my assessment right now:

I’d rather be the Dems, but let’s wait a bit before saying the pattern is immutable.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 10:30 PM, 10/18/20

Final update of the evening with Clark early voting in:

D – 9,282

R – 9,143

O – 4,699

Total: 23,124

Last time it was this close in Clark early voting was during the red wave of 2014. But this is EXACTLY why this year is an apple and all others are oranges. With the explosion of mail ballots, the Dem firewall is 35K in Clark, about half of what it was at the end of early voting in 2016.

Early voting could be much less important than mail voting this cycle. That is, even if the GOP keeps it close every day, it won't matter if most Dems are voting by mail.

More tomorrow....

Updated, 9:45 PM, 10/18/20

SOS just updated, too:

The conservative numbers on mail ballots -- just the ones accepted (not including ones returned but pending):

53 percent to 25 percent, Dems.

45K statewide lead.

The Republicans have about a 500-vote lead in in-person voting, and that could grow as rurals come in.

The overall statewide lead for the Dems now, about 45K, is about what it was at the end of early voting in 2016. (Oranges, apples, etc.)

None of this includes Clark in-person today.

If you include all returned mail ballots, the lead doesn't change much.

More when I get Clark...

Updated, 9:15 PM, 10/18/20

Washoe numbers from today:

Democratic - 2,080

Republican - 2,664

Nonpartisan - 1,118

Total -5,862

Combined mail/early:

Democratic - 29,329

Republican- 16,878

Nonpartisan - 12,466

Total - 58,673

Nearly a fifth of active voters in Washoe have voted.

So the GOP was about +600 in the in-person vote but lost about 2,000 in mail ballots returned (some will be rejected). So net Dem gain of about 1,500 ballots.

Dems have about a 12,500 raw ballot lead in Washoe (minus whatever mail ballots are rejected). At the end of early voting in 2016, the Dems had a 1,000-ballot lead. Hillary Clinton won Washoe by 400 votes.

More when I have it.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 1:15 PM, 10/18/20

Quick dive into the current numbers and down-ballot effect:

CD3: The GOP actually beat the Dems by 500 votes out of 12,000 cast on the first day of early voting. Problem for GOP is that almost 50,000 votes in all have been cast (with mail ballots returned counted) and the Dems have a 2 to 1 lead. A little under 10 percent of the vote in. (Remember some of those mail ballots will not be accepted.)

CD4: The Dems won handily on the first of in-person voting – 1,300 votes among 8,400 cast. They lead by just under 3 to 1 in the Clark part of the district, which is 85 percent of the total, with just under 10 percent in.

SD5: The Republicans won in this key district by about 100 votes on the first day of early voting out of about 2,000 cast. But they trail by 3 to 1 with about 10 percent in.

SD6: The Dems won by only 50 votes out of 2,000 cast Saturday, but they have a 2.5 to 1 lead with about 10 percent in.

So the down-ballot effect, thanks to the mail ballots, is obvious in Clark. The real question is whether this could bring presumably safe GOP legislative seats into play. Too early to tell yet.

Only one day of early voting in the books, and only 10 percent of active voters in. So no trend yet, but you see that all the Dems have to do in some of these districts is just hold their own for the fortnight, and it’s game over.

Updated, 11:40 AM, 10/18/20

Clark is updated:

Total mail ballots received (not all accepted):

D -- 50,077

R -- 17,191

Others -- 19,707

That's a 33K-ballot lead (some will be rejected). Add that to the 2K in-person lead and it's a 35K lead in Clark.

114,000 people have cast ballots by mail or in-person in Clark. That's just under 10 percent.

Dems have a 54 percent to 24 percent lead.

It's still early.

Updated, 10 AM, 10/18/20

Of course Washoe posts right after I did.

GOP won first day of in-person early voting there by 500 (Dems won big there in 2016 on first day but did not have that mail lead), not much action on mail counting front and Dems still have 2 to 1 lead with 16 percent of the vote in:

D -- 23,821

R -- 12,779

O -- 10,127

Updated, 9:15 AM, 10/18/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 32,000 Dem lead (9 percent of active voters have cast ballots)

Statewide: 40,000 Dem lead (9 percent of vote in)

Details (does not include Clark in-person on this chart):

Washoe still has not reported mail or in-person from Saturday, and Clark is two days behind in reporting mail ballots. I'll post those numbers when I get them.

I will try to start every day posting the statewide lead and the Clark County firewall status (Dem lead in most populous county that has protected them in three straight presidential cycles from losses in the rurals). I remind you of two things:

---Can't say it enough: This is an orange year; the rest were apples. The surge in mail voting has changed everything. The effect is already palpable: The Democrats won Clark by only 7 percentage points Saturday; in 2016, it was 28 percent. But they also already had banked a 20,000-vote lead in mail. We will see if some fine old cannibalizing is occurring as voting goes on.

---By the end of early voting in 2016, the Clark firewall was at 73,000 voters and Donald Trump had already lost. Assuming at least two-thirds of the vote comes in before Election Day, the Democrats will need at least that to feel comfortable. The Dem statewide lead in 2016 after early voting was 45,000.

One day does not a trend make. So holster your ecstasy or despair.

Having said all of that:

Tons of GOP votes in the rurals to come, 35,000 non-major-party voters have cast ballots and 13 days of early voting left. Miles to go before I sleep (I don't know about the rest of you....). But that's where we are.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 10:15 PM, 10/17/20

Don't have Washoe yet, but Clark saw about 27,000 turn out on the first day and the Dems won by nearly 2,000 votes (44-37). Those numbers are way down from 2016, when 39,000 votes were cast and the Dems won by 2 to 1 on the first day.

I actually thought all the pent-up demand might allow the GOP to win Clark. But they only lost by 2,000 votes and the Dems won the first day four years ago by 10,000 votes.

But remember what I have said and will keep saying: This year is an apple, and the others are oranges. The mail ballots, which already have exceeded 2016's, are changing everything.

The SOS site shows that Dems continue to do well with mail, leading the GOP by 37,000 ballots statewide in ballots that have been accepted. (They lead by 42,000 in all ballots returned, but some of those need signature curing or have not been verified yet.)

The SOS had only posted rural in-person voting -- Clark posted just now -- and the GOP crushed the Dems by 3 to 1. That amounted to about a 1,500-vote lead, but Nye, which has a fair number of voters, was not in yet.

So the Clark in-person essentially cancels the GOP lead in the rurals. So the mail lead of 37,000 is still important.

As a reminder, in 2016, after early voting was over, the Democrats had a 45,000-voter statewide lead; in Clark, it was 75,000.

So we wait for Washoe and any uncounted mail in Clark. I assume the GOP will win Washoe, but the question is by how much. They are losing by 10,000 in mail.

I don't put a lot of stock in just one day out of 14, in a regular year or in this anomalous one. My guess is the GOP hoped to win Clark today, but it also may be that Dems are cannibalizing what is usually the in-person early vote with their mail.

Need. More. Data.

More Sunday.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 6 PM, 10/17/20

We may not have any results until late tonight or early tomorrow from in-person early voting or mail dropoffs on the first day. So let me leave you now with this table that I will be constantly updating. The results below are the numbers I have through Friday.

I want to be clear that I will only be using mail ballots that have been accepted not just returned. That is the more conservative approach, although most of the returned ones will be accepted, I'd guess. But no reason to jump the gun.

I'm also using voter registration numbers reduced by the 75,000 inactive voters still on the rolls in Clark County because of a glitch. Those ballots almost certainly will be returned or thrown away or yelled about by Team Trump because those voters are not at there.

So this table will always be a conservative look at the state of play. As you can see, more Democratic voters are outstanding, but the GOP has about 4.5 percent more of its base that has not voted. Nearly 94 percent of active voters had not been counted in here yet.

It's early.

County	Actives	Left	Turnout	D	R	O
Clark	1,191,349	1,140,915	4.2%	456,732	333,361	350,862
Washoe	301,430	262,878	12.8%	85,210	97,170	80,498
Lyon	39,607	36,026	9.0%	6,372	18,564	11,080
Douglas	38,565	32,718	15.2%	6,399	18,478	7,841
Carson	37,152	35,134	5.4%	9,925	15,262	9,947
Nye	33,571	30,478	9.2%	6,366	15,293	8,819
Elko	24,649	22,831	7.4%	3,077	13,097	6,657
Churchill	15,561	14,164	9.0%	2,080	8,157	3,927
Humboldt	8,607	8,222	4.5%	1,229	4,787	2,206
White Pine	5,178	4,640	10.4%	869	2,548	1,223
Storey	3,606	3,137	13.0%	612	1,654	901
Lander	3,249	2,998	7.7%	427	1,819	752
Mineral	3,081	2,806	8.9%	740	1,215	851
Lincoln	2,995	2,727	8.9%	441	1,756	530
Pershing	2,780	2,647	4.8%	403	1,369	624
Eureka	1,120	1,025	8.5%	72	1,059	232
Esmeralda	548	531	3.1%	75	318	138
Total	1,713,048	1,603,877	6.4%	581,029	535,907	487,088
%		93.6%		91.0%	95.5%	94.9%

I'll update this table every day going forward so you can see how many votes are left.

Douglas, at 15 percent, is not surprising. Turnout there in 2016 was...94 percent.

Douglas, Lyon, Carson, Nye and Elko (and maybe Churchill) are the rural counties to watch. The others are generally too small to make a large difference. But if those five or six counties can increase their turnout and margins, Trump may have a shot here.

Here's what it looked like in 2016 with percentages and vote margins in parentheses and county turnouts:

Clark	52-42 Clinton (82,000)	75%
Washoe	46-45 Clinton (2,700)	79%
Lyon	67-26 Trump (10,000)	71%
Douglas	62-30 Trump (9,000)	94%
Carson	52-38 Trump (4,000)	92%
Nye	68-26 Trump (8,000)	72%
Elko	73-18 Trump (10,000)	78%
Churchill	72-20 Trump (5,500)	83%
Humboldt	70-22 Trump (3,000)	80%
White Pine	72-19 Trump (2,000)	81%
Storey	63-29 Trump (1,000)	86%
Lander	76-17 Trump (1,500)	81%
Mineral	59-32 Trump (500)	68%
Lincoln	78-13 Trump (1,500)	80%
Pershing	71-22 Trump (1,000)	79%
Eureka	85-9 Trump (650)	89%
Esmeralda	78-15 Trump (250)	73%
Total		77%

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 9:45 AM, 10/17/20

Welcome to the first day of early voting!

Here’s what to look for today:

----First and foremost, this year is an apple and all the rest are oranges. Probably. Unlike the past, every voter has a mail ballot and this likely will skew turnout patterns. 105,000 ballots already have been accepted, and Democrats start with a 31,000-ballot statewide lead.

----The key, as always, is the Clark County firewall. That is, can the Dems bank enough votes in the place where two-thirds-plus of votes will be cast to make everything else essentially moot? If a statewide candidate wins Clark by 10 percentage points, it is very difficult to lose. (Hillary Clinton won Clark by 10.5 points.) The Dems start with mail ballots accepted, with a 20,000-ballot lead – 30 percentage points. But it is so….early.

I have mapped the 2016 early vote for you below, but I really don’t think there will be much of an analogy. Just under half a million ballots were cast early in Clark in 2016. The Dems had about a 70,000-vote lead after the two-week period. It essentially was over for Donald Trump, then, and I said so.

----The usual pattern, as you can see in the chart, is a big first day, followed by a dropoff, until the end of the second week and then the last day often exceeds the first. I assume both parties will make a real effort today, especially the Republicans, who have pushed in-person voting over mail.

----New Washoe mail numbers just posted. Democrats continue to do very well, leading by more than 2 to 1, and almost 13 percent of active voters are in:

D -- 20,668

R -- 9,297

Others -- 8,587

Bookmark this space.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 4 PM, 10/16/20

A data avalanche today, friends, so let me dive in:

----The SOS has now parsed the mail ballots into the ones that have been accepted, the ones needing signature cures and the ones returned as undeliverable. Kudos to the SOS for putting up this page, where you can see all of the categories, including how many have been cured and how many are awaiting cures.

The best numbers to use now are these:

About 6 percent of active voters (105,000) have had their ballots accepted, and the Democrats have a 31,000 ballot lead statewide, and are ahead by 30 percentage points. The lead is almost entirely in Clark and Washoe because the rurals are about tied — that will not last, of course.

But let’s see what that number really means.

If turnout is 90 percent, about six and a quarter percent of the vote is in. If turnout is 85 percent, then about 7 percent is in. If turnout is 80 percent, then almost 7.5 percent is in.

So, whether you are bullish or bearish on turnout, the mail vote is substantial but not yet, perhaps, significant. As I have been saying in previous posts, let’s see how the Republicans do when early voting starts Saturday. (Remember the Dems won the early vote by nearly 30 percentage points on the first day in Clark in 2016, or about 2 to 1. Highly unlikely that happens Saturday. 55,000 turned out statewide and 39,000 in Clark in 2016 on the first day — I expect those numbers to be dwarfed tomorrow.)

----You can see there are about 27,000 ballots returned that have not been counted. Some of those are signature cures in waiting but others are at the verification stage. Numbers in those charts will change a lot, especially the undeliverable ballots in Clark because of those 75,000 or so inactive voters still on the rolls. On this page, you can see the 132,000 ballots actually received so far (not all are accepted), and there the Dem lead there is 39,000 ballots. But I am going to use the more conservative number of those accepted for voting, even though many of those other ballots eventually will be.

----I also have some new registration numbers for the first two weeks of October, and the Democrats are ahead by about 2,500 voters statewide. That’s not huge, but it could matter. Here are the changes in each county since the beginning of the month:

County	Dem	Indep. American	Libertarian	NP	Other	GOP	Total	% Change
Carson City	130	36	6	142	11	168	493	1.34%
Churchill	33	16	10	109	8	133	309	2.03%
Clark	12,663	2,160	253	10,066	947	9,301	35,390	2.87%
Douglas	110	30	9	150	26	223	548	1.44%
Elko	75	37	12	225	23	363	735	3.07%
Esmeralda	1	1	0	6	-1	8	15	2.81%
Eureka	-2	0	1	6	2	7	14	1.27%
Humboldt	25	16	4	58	2	120	225	2.68%
Lander	6	5	1	9	1	39	61	1.91%
Lincoln	-2	4	1	-2	0	32	33	1.11%
Lyon	89	34	8	230	17	322	700	1.80%
Mineral	13	3	0	36	1	9	62	2.05%
Nye	81	51	2	189	21	276	620	1.88%
Pershing	3	2	0	14	0	25	44	1.61%
Storey	2	0	1	14	1	13	31	0.87%
Washoe	2,118	415	116	2,069	143	1,744	6,605	2.24%
White Pine	2	6	1	19	5	45	78	1.53%
Statewide	15,347	2,816	425	13,340	1,207	12,828	45,963	2.64%
% Change	2.34%	3.64%	2.49%	3.26%	6.72%	2.27%	2.64%

So almost 3,300 has been padded onto the Dem lead in Clark alone, which means the GOP basically won the rest of the state by about 800. Dems gained 400 in Washoe but lost by wide margins (but smaller numbers) in the larger rural counties.

The continued growth in nonpartisan registration, greater in percentage terms than either major party, is something to watch. NPs in the rurals pretty much vote Republican, which means President Trump can run up some numbers in rural Nevada.

No one has ever done what he did in rural Nevada (58,000-voter margin) and it could be bigger than ever this time. (Did that sound like him?)

I’ll keep an eye on early voting for everyone tomorrow. Could be a long day for election officials. They are great, dedicated people, so say a prayer for them.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 4:45 PM, 10/15/20

As I write this, 90,000 ballots have been returned (some will be rejected), which is 5 percent of active voters, and the Democrats have a huge lead: 30 percentage points and 28,000 ballots statewide.

Dems are even or winning in most of the rurals, which tells me a GOP surge during early voting is more than likely. But the Dems are doing now what they usually do in early voting – banking as many votes as they can.

Take Clark, where the Dems have been ahead 3 to 1 or close to it the first two days of counting, and indies/third parties are turning out in greater numbers than Republicans. The GOP is barely a fifth of the turnout in Clark so far. A fifth!

The Dems are also ahead by 2 and a half (CD3) and three and a half (CD4) to 1 in the key congressional districts.

The numbers in those two critical state Senate districts in Clark: Dems have 3 to 1 leads in both.

This cannot last. None of it.

The Republicans will start to turn out in big numbers this weekend, I’d guess. The president’s visit is designed to juice turnout, and he needs it. The question is if the Democrats can keep pace with them.

----I’ll have more on early voting Friday. And even though this year is a completely different animal than any since I have covered politics with the big increase in mail balloting, thus skewing any comparisons to the past, here’s what happened on the first day in 2016 – quoting from that cycle’s early voting blog:

In Clark: Record turnout of 39,000, 6,000 above 2012. But with 150,000 additional voters, the percentage (3.8 percent) is about the same. The Democrats won 21,611-10,701. That’s 55 percent to 27 percent, almost identical to what it was in 2012. That means Democrats are turning out 12 points above their registration and Republicans are 2 points below theirs.

Statewide: The raw numbers, according to the secretary of state, combining early and mail ballots: 41,017-27,606. That’s 49 percent to 33 percent. Democrats are 10 percent above their registration numbers and Republicans right at theirs.

----The Clark registration numbers are now at Dems plus 156,900 (subtract the inactives and it’s about 143,500). That’s a gain of about 4,500 in a month. It has slowed a little, day by day, but Dems are gaining steadily. It will be interesting to see what is happening in Washoe and if the rurals can offset.

----I have been basing my modeling on what amounts to 79 percent turnout – or about 2 percentage points higher than 2016. My baseline projections are that 85 percent of each party’s base turns out and about 75 percent of indies/third parties. But what if it is 90 percent of each party’s base and 80 percent of others? That would be 84 percent turnout.

Here’s what that will look like – with a reminder of what each column means:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

90/90/80 turnout	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90/90/40-50	90/90/50-45	90/90/45-50
Biden	709,556	729,556	689,556	729,556	709,556
Trump	652,111	632,111	672,111	652,111	672,111
Rest	92,719	92,719	92,719	72,719	72,719
Biden	49%	50%	47%	50%	49%
Trump	45%	43%	46%	45%	46%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	57,445 (Biden)	97,445 (Biden)	17,445 (Biden)	77,445 (Biden)	37,445 (Biden)

So, truth be told: It doesn’t change much. Unless Biden hemorrhages from the base, and/or the Dems don’t turn out close to Republican turnout, Trump must win indies by 10 points or more to have a chance here.

More when I have it.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 4:45 PM, 10/14/20

The SOS has updated its page with those Washoe numbers I told you about, so here's where we stand statewide:

Dems: 54 percent

Repubs: 24 percent

Others: 22 percent

Three percent of registered voters have returned ballots, or about 52,000. The Dems have a 15,000-ballot statewide lead (before any ballots are rejected).

Updated, 2:45 PM, 10/14/20

Lots of data so far on returned ballots, but I am trying to get to the bottom of a discrepancy that appears to have screwed up this chart. The Washoe numbers are incorrect there, as is the description of what they represent on the Washoe site. (I have been spending too much time today pushing the SOS and Washoe folks to fix their data. I need a life.)

Those numbers on the Washoe site are cumulative (not daily as the site says) – I downloaded the data file to be sure – so the Dems have more than a 2 to 1 lead, but about 20,000 people have returned ballots, not the 30,000-plus on the SOS site.

That’s still an almost-7,000 raw vote Dem lead in a county with a slight GOP plurality (700 votes or so). And the Dems have about an 8,000-vote lead in Clark.

Despite the SOS discrepancy with Washoe (I will update you when I find out what happened), the Dems still have a 15,000 vote lead statewide or thereabouts.

Remember, though, that a certain number of these returned ballots will be rejected and sent to voters for signature curing or simply invalidated – likely to be a small minority, but I hope to have those numbers soon.

The turnout – 2 percent in Clark and 7 percent in Washoe – is still not enough to say it’s a trend. But I’ll keep an eye on it.

What we do know: Democrats are returning mail ballots and Republicans are not keeping pace. It’s 60 percent to 18 percent in Clark, and 56-23 in Washoe. Caveat again: Small samples.

In both CD3 and CD4, the Democrats have a 3,000-voter lead and only 8,000 and 6,500 ballots have been returned, respectively. Again, these are minuscule samples – less than 2 percent – of voters.

Which brings me to…

What we don’t know: Will Republicans too afraid to send in mail ballots thanks to presidential admonitions instead flock to early voting? That could change everything. We will know more starting Saturday. Check this space.

If Republicans are not turning out in larger-than-usual numbers during the two weeks of early voting, they are in big trouble. But if they do, the president has a real chance here.

I’ll have data comparisons coming to show you what to expect in the next few days.

----Reminder from 2016: The Democrats had a 45,000-voter lead statewide after early/mail voting – 70,000 or so in Clark. Nearly 70 percent of the vote was cast before Election Day. Let’s see what happens in this very different year with a much different composition of ballots.

----Another 2016 comparison: I looked at the Nevada exit polls for 2016 and Donald Trump won indies by 50-37. Hillary took 90 percent of the Dem base and Trump got 88 percent of the GOP base. These were self-ID exit polls — that is, the numbers reflect what people said they are and sometimes they…lie.

But let’s suppose those numbers are correct. What would happen if those were replicated this cycle, when Dems have lost a bit off their percentage lead statewide?

The model below, like all of my models, takes into account the 75,000 inactive voters on the rolls in Clark and subtracts them, which helps the GOP by a net of 13,500 voters. They also do not yet account for the recent Dem surge in Clark, but they will soon. (Reminder: First column shows if both parties have 85 percent turnout; second shows if Republicans have 90 percent and Democrats have 85 percent.)

2016 exits	85-85 turnout	85-90 turnout
Biden	652,866	655,059
Trump	639,958	664,080
Rest	77,986	79,082
Biden	48%	47%
Trump	47%	47%
Rest	6%	6%
Victory margin	12,908 (Biden)	9,021 (Trump)

So you can see if Trump wins indies here by double digits, as your favorite data geek has been arguing, the race will be very tight in Nevada. Almost no polls have shown that — some have found the president with a small lead. So unless one candidate experiences a huge dropoff in base support, it’s safe to say Trump needs to win indies by at least 10 and perhaps more.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 5 PM, 10/13/20

We have some ballot return numbers from urban Nevada, and the Democrats are outpacing the Republicans in Washoe and Clark. But the numbers don’t mean that much because the sample is so small. The rural numbers have been updated, too.

These early mail return numbers seem to indicate that either Republicans here are instructing people not to mail their ballots yet or many partisans are affected by the POTUS scare tactics. Either way, seems awfully risky to put all of your eggs in the Election Day basket. I still think overall turnout will be sky high.

----The Clark surge slowed since I last posted. The Dem lead is at 156,600, with all the usual caveats. That's a gain of 100 since Monday. Let’s see Wednesday if the Republicans are holding them off now or if this is a one-day anomaly.

----That RJ poll released today showing a dead heat is an outlier – I have seen two other credible private polls showing Joe Biden up by double digits. I don’t know if they are correct, but a dead heat it is not in most polls.

The poll has some other anomalies, too – no cell phones called, 13 percent Hispanics. I would still like to plug the internals into the model as I have with the NYT/Siena and CBS polls, but the RJ has not released the crosstabs – or I can’t find them.

The story says President Donald Trump is up 4 among indies – if so, the race is not a dead heat. Biden would still be up a bit, depending on the turnout scenarios, as you can see below from previous modeling.

I’ll repeat what I keep saying: Trump can win here, but we don’t have enough actual votes yet to see where the race is going here. All the credible polling says Biden will win here, but I prefer ballot return and early voting numbers to use for projections.

More when I have it.

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 4 PM, 10/12/20

We have our first report of returned ballots from four small counties and….it doesn’t tell us much.

It appears Republicans are waiting until Election Day – or for early voting, which starts Saturday. The Democrats have a 250-vote lead out of about 5,500 returned, but the sample is small (about three-tenths of 1 percent of active voters).

Let me put it this way: The Democrats have a small lead in super-red Douglas County. If that were to last (it won’t), the Republicans would be extinct in Nevada. I am sure Republicans are just more patient than the Democrats, as they are elsewhere, too. Or they believe the Trump/Laxalt nonsense about mail ballots.

Once we start seeing the Clark County ballots, we will have a much better idea of where this is going.

Fun fact: In 2016, 72,000 mail ballots (6.4 percent of total) were returned – a quarter of that number had already come back last Friday. The Dems won by about 1,500 absentee ballots statewide in 2016.

----Speaking of Clark, the voter registration lead is now up above 156,500 for the Dems over the GOP. (My usual reminder: subtract about 13,500 off that for the inactives still on the list.) I will adjust my models soon to show this surge – 1,000 this week, 4,000 over the last month.

As I wrote in my newsletter this morning: At the close of registration for the 2016 general, when the Democratic sweep occurred, the Clark advantage was 142,263. In 2018, when the Dems swept again, it was 137,175. (So right now, it’s close to 2016 in raw numbers if you subtract the inactives, but there also were fewer registered voters.)

If you subtract the inactives, the Dems have an 11.6 percent lead in Clark now. Reminder: In 2016, it was 14 percent because there were 200,000-plus fewer voters. To get to 14 percent this cycle, the Dems would need to have a 175,000-voter lead. Not gonna happen, or even close.

So Democrats have a significantly diminished share of the vote in Clark in 2020, but the Republicans still are behind by double digits. And the Dems still have a chance to get to a 12 percent advantage in Clark.

You may have seen the report of the CBS poll last week on Nevada. I looked at the details and the crosstabs, and I have a few thoughts and a table:

----The CBS poll showed Joe Biden with a 6 percentage point lead, same as that recent New York Times poll (see my analysis of that below). But there are significant differences.

---This survey looks at registered voters, not likely voters. But the sample size (more than 1,000) is quite large.

----The demos generally look reasonable – 18 percent Hispanic, 52-48 female-male and 37-31 D-R (slightly Dem-friendly, perhaps). The party breakdown, however, is from self-identified (as opposed voter registration lists) Ds and Rs, which can be a bit off because people occasionally don’t like to self-ID with a party, which could make the indies cohort swell and skew the partisan breakdown.

----This survey uses online panels and then weights them. For what it’s worth, 538 rates the NYT/Siena polls as A-plus and the YouGov polls as B-minus. Also, for what it’s worth, CBS/YouGov had Nevada at Clinton plus 6 in mid-October 2016. (She won by 2.5.)

----So having said all of that, let’s see what the results look like if the crosstabs of the CBS poll are plugged into actual voter registration numbers. Note that I again have two models – one with both parties turning out 85 percent of their bases and another showing the Dems at 85 percent and the GOP at 90. I also have reduced the actual active voter numbers by the 75,000 inactive voters still on the rolls in Clark that helps the GOP.

Below is what it would look like, as the poll found, if Biden won Democrats, 93-6, Trump won Republicans, 90-8 and Trump won others, 50-44.

CBS	85-85 turnout	85-90 turnout
Biden	685,691	687,335
Trump	649,278	673,948
Rest	35,841	36,938
Biden	50%	49%
Trump	47%	48%
Rest	3%	3%
Victory margin	36,413	13,388

As you can see, Biden would win in both turnout scenarios, although the race would be very close if the GOP had a 5 percent turnout edge. (This is quite unlikely, but again shows what the Democratic registration advantage means, and I have yet to add the recent Clark surge.)

This also is a reminder that indies are key to the election here, and it essentially shows that Trump needs to win them by close to double digits to have any chance. That is why registration matters.

(By the way, pet polling peeve: Almost no polls of Nevada account for “none of these candidates” being on the ballot. It could matter.)

As always, email me with any questions at [email protected]. And if you appreciate this blog, please support our nonprofit.

Updated, 2:15 PM, 10/10/20

Bonus Saturday edition, all:

----I’m reliably told that statewide turnout so far is about 1 percent – about 17,500 mail ballots have been returned. No data yet from Clark, which just sent ballots out a few days ago. About 9,000 mail ballots have been returned in Washoe County. That’s about 3 percent of active voters there. Those ballots went out Monday.

No party breakdown yet, but I should have that early next week. In Washoe registration, Dems have cut the GOP lead by more than 200 voters in the last week to just under 700. Reminder: in 2016, when Hillary Clinton eked out a win in Washoe, the GOP lead was 4,000 voters over the Dems. This is not the Washoe County of Paul Laxalt’s time.

----The Dems have pushed their Clark lead close to 156,500 (with all of those inactives, reality is closer to 143,000). That’s a gain of almost 2,000 this week. At the close of registration for the 2016 general, when the Democratic sweep occurred, the Clark County advantage was 142,263. In 2018, when the Dems swept again, it was 137,175. (So right now, it’s close to 2016 in raw numbers if you subtract the inactives, but there were 200,000-plus fewer registered voters.)

----I told you Friday about the figures on voters defaulting to nonpartisan if they don’t choose a party at the DMV with the new Automatic Voter Registration law. Now I have learned that since January, 26,593 voters have actively selected nonpartisan status. And you can see from this chart, the surge that has occurred in the last two months:

Month	NP chosen
January	3,800
February	3,157
March	2,559
April	1,420
May	1,710
June	2,334
July	2,435
August	3,967
September	5,211
Total	26,593

----Early voting starts a week from today. We will see if the Dems try to crush it there as they have done every presidential cycle in the last three (as opposed to pushing mail voting) and how much the Republicans are doing by mail to cut the gap. (Wouldn’t that be ironic/hypocritical?). The real story in Nevada voting every presidential cycle of the last three is that Dems banked so many votes during early voting so as to make Election Day essentially irrelevant in the White House contest. That’s why Donald Trump’s 2.5 percent loss last time was misleading; he was dead before Election Day. It’s also how I knew in 2014 that the Dems’ performance was so anemic during early voting that a red wave was coming.

Follow this space for blow by blow, and support The Indy if you can.

Updated, 2:45 PM, 10/9/20

Lots of news for the blog today:

----TRUMP LEADS IN NEVADA!

OK, all; calm down. I do have some information on ballots already cast – it’s not much, and I will have more data next week.

I have learned that 3,000 ballots have already been cast in super-red Douglas County – that’s 8 percent of the vote already this far from Election Day. Remember, turnout in Douglas was – wait for it – 94 percent in 2016 -- and a 2.5-to-1 GOP registration edge.

I don’t have party breakdowns yet, but I think we can safely say most of those votes are for the president.

I bet Trumpworld is just fine with these mail ballots….

----The Dems continue to buttress the Clark County firewall. They are now just under 156,000 on their lead over Republicans, and they will probably gain about 1,500 this week in all.

----I have been wondering about what the Automatic Voter Registration law in Nevada has yielded, especially how many of the new nonpartisan voters were simply defaulted to that category because they did not choose a party. The chart below (SOS data) reveals a lot:

Month	Total	Existing	%	New	%	NP defaults	% of new	% of total
January	52,277	31,817	61%	20,460	39%	12,164	59%	23%
February	52,117	32,352	62%	19,765	38%	12,005	61%	23%
March	33,548	22,349	67%	11,199	33%	6,773	60%	20%
April	7,360	5,867	80%	1,493	20%	497	33%	7%
May	10,370	8,328	80%	2,042	20%	715	35%	7%
June	22,023	15,421	70%	6,602	30%	4,939	75%	22%
July	31,565	20,895	66%	10,670	34%	6,089	57%	19%
August	44,151	30,166	59%	13,985	41%	6,873	49%	16%
September	53,036	37,529	71%	15,501	29%	7,388	48%	14%
TOTAL	306,447	204,724	67%	101,723	33%	57,443	56%	19%

You can see that about two-thirds of those registered at the DMV were existing voters. About 100,000 are new voters and more than half – 57,000 – were defaulted to nonpartisan because they did not select a party.

The voters who defaulted to nonpartisan are sent a letter informing them, so some inevitably later choose a party.

AVR clearly was helping the Democrats before the pandemic, and you can see the drop in voters starting in April and then a record being set last month.

Interesting stuff.

And this is the place to come for interesting stuff!

Have a good weekend, all. Donate if you appreciate this blog. The Indy is a nonprofit and we can use all the help we can get.

Updated, 3:15 PM, 10/8/20

Ballots in all areas of the state are now being filled out and mailed, so I hope to have real vote numbers soon. Until then:

----The Dems in Clark County continue to surge. As I write this on Thursday, they have gained 400 on their voter registration lead since yesterday. They are up about 1,000 this week and 3,000 since mid-September. This is going to affect the firewall.

----A look at the Assembly races and numbers shows movement toward the Dems since 2018 in five key districts, as this chart shows:

ASSEMBLY	D-R 2016	D-R 2018	D-R now
2	R+1,719	R+1,829	R+969
4	D+288	R+33	D+11
29	D+1,496	D+1,550	D+2,233
31	R+2,271	R+2,386	R+1,966
37	D+312	D+245	D+845

Remember what’s at stake here: The Dems have one more than a supermajority in the Assembly. The GOP goal is to get that number down from 29 to at least 27, so the supermajority is erased. They have a shot and have targeted two Dem freshmen:

District 2, where John Hambrick has retired, has seen the GOP advantage sliced in half, so the Dems think they have a chance with Radhika Kunnel. But Heidi Kasama is considered one of the better GOP recruits and has to be considered a slight favorite.

District 4, where Democratic freshman Connie Munk (she only won by 120 votes) is facing a rematch from former Assemblyman Richard McArthur, is the closest od the competitive districts in registration. McArthur is not considered a particularly strong candidate by many Republicans – they loaded up on his primary foe – but he clearly has a chance with that registration split against newcomer Munk.

District 29, where Democratic Assemblywoman Lesley Cohen is facing newcomer Steven Delisle, has had a 50 percent increase in the Dem advantage since 2018. She is a slight favorite.

District 31, where Democratic incumbent Skip Daly has a rematch with Jill Dickman, is a GOP district. Indeed, the Republicans thought this was locked last time. Daly may be a favorite, but barely.

District 37, where freshman Democratic Assemblywoman Shea Backus (she only won by 135 votes) is facing Andy Matthews, also has moved toward the Dems. But the registration is close and Matthews, part of the Adam Laxalt network, has raised a lot of money. This one is a toss-up.

It’s not unreasonable at all to see the Republicans knocking off Daley, Munk and Backus. But there is a lot of money coming in late for Backus, and even some Republicans think Matthews leans too far right for the district. McArthur, too, may be too conservative for that changing area.

If Joe Biden wins Clark County by a large margin, he could drag some of these Democrats across the finish line. But if he does not, the numbers say the Republicans could achieve their goal of being only slightly irrelevant next session.

Updated, 1:45PM, 10/7/20

So a lot to get through in this post, loyal readers, including the breakdown of inactive voters still on the rolls in Clark County and a new model using a new New York Times poll and its crosstabs:

----First, I have the exact breakdown of those 75,000 voters who are actually inactive because their ballots were returned in the primary but officials missed a deadline to actually deactivate them. Those numbers, which you can see below, I will subtract from the actual voter registration numbers for all of the modeling I do from now until the election because very few of them will actually vote. Inactive voters do not live at an address, so they are likely gone.

Here’s the table showing the breakdown, which reduces the Democratic edge by about 13,500 voters in Clark:

Americans Elect Party	3
Democratic	31,408
Independent American	3,676
Libertarian	897
Natural Law	14
NO POLITICAL PARTY	7
Nonpartisan	20,461
Other	744
Reform Party	5
Republican	18,040
Tea Party of Nevada	13
The Green Party	124
TOTAL	75,392

----The NYT poll looks pretty solid. The 6-percentage-point Joe Biden lead is reasonable, up from a 4-percentage-point edge last month in the Times. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. The demographics all look pretty good – 4 percent Democratic registration lead (actual reg difference is 5 percent, although with the inactives noted above it is closer to 4 percent).

Some other interesting Biden v. Trump breakdowns I have obtained:

Clark: 53-36

Washoe: 51-44

Rest of the counties: 19-70

White: 41-52

Hispanic: 59-27

Black: 80-9

Suffice it to say, if Biden wins Clark by 17 points, it does not matter what the other numbers are. And if he is really up 7 in Washoe, that is extraordinarily bad news for the GOP and could put some down-ballot races in play. (I told you in a previous post that I think Trump could get 70 percent in the rurals, so I am not surprised to see that number.)

Let me show you what it looks like if you plug the New York Times results into two turnout scenarios — one that shows Democrats and Republicans each with 85 percent turnout and another that shows Democrats at 85 percent and Republicans at 90 percent:

NYT	85-85 turnout	85-90 turnout
Biden	673,531	674,901
Trump	593,315	618,807
Rest	103,964	104,513
Biden	49%	48%
Trump	43%	44%
Rest	8%	7%
Victory margin	80,216	56,094

Turnout
D	529,819	529,819
R	465,991	493,403
O	375,000	375,000
Total	1,370,810	1,398,221

You can see that with both candidates getting 93 percent of their bases and Biden winning others by 42-37, as the poll showed, Trump loses under both models – by 6 points in one and 4 points in the other. Unless something strange occurs, Trump is going to need to win indies by at least 10 points to take Nevada.

By the way, the Clark advantage continues to grow for the Dems. It is now more than 155,300 (without the inactives subtracted). The Dems appear to be gaining several hundred every day now. That is quite ominous for the GOP.

More when I have more….

Updated, 3:40 PM, 10/6/20

The Democratic machine in Clark continues to purr. The Dems just went over 155,000 in their Clark lead, and they now have more than 510,000 registered voters in the South. I wonder if they can keep up this pace.

Today, a look at the state Senate, where Democrats are one short of a supermajority but have two of their own seats in jeopardy. Perhaps the most important races outside of the presidential contest in Nevada this year – if you assume the Republicans are longshots in CD3 and CD4 – are the contests in the state Senate.

The only really competitive races – that is, unless something very strange occurs – are in Senate District 5, being vacated by Democrat Joyce Woodhouse, and Senate District 6, where Democratic Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro is seeking re-election.

The Democrats have registration edges in both districts, but Woodhouse (who won with less than 1 percent) and Cannizzaro (less than 2 percent) won close races in 2016.

Let’s look at SD5 first – here is what the voter registration looks like since Woodhouse defeated Carrie Buck, who is making her third attempt to win the seat (she was part of the effort to recall Woodhouse in 2018) and Kristee Watson, the Democrat:

The Dems have actually picked up 1,000 voters on their lead since 2016, but you can see the real spurt has been with indies/others, who now are almost as numerous as Republicans in the district. Buck came close against an incumbent last time, and Watson is an unknown, so she has a real chance despite the voter registration edge for the Dems. But so often how the top of the ticket performs affects these races.

(One caveat here and in SD5: Many Dem voters in Clark actually are inactive, so the margin probably isn’t as great as it seems. But it is still significant.)

In SD6, perhaps the most important race in the state this cycle, hundreds of thousands of dollars are being spent against the majority leader to help Republican April Becker. If Cannizzaro were to lose, it not only would bring the GOP closer in the upper house, it would send the Senate Democratic Caucus into disarray.

Here’s what the numbers look like there.

The Dems have similarly padded their lead since 2016 by more than 1,000 voters, and there has been a rapid increase in non-major party registrants. The indie/third-party vote is going to be key to these and other contests.

I could make a good case for Republicans having a shot to pick up both of these seats despite the registration deficits. I would say Cannizzaro’s fortunes (and Watson’s) are more in Joe Biden’s hands than their own.

By the way, the Dems think they can knock off Heidi Gansert in SD15 because the registration numbers are close to even, but that’s a long shot, I think. Let me put it this way: If Gansert loses, the Democrats are going to win EVERYTHING.

More when I have something to say. Don’t forget: Clark ballots go out Wednesday!

Updated, 3:30 PM, 10/5/20

So the biggest news since I last posted is the ongoing surge by the Democrats in Clark since the Culinary and others got back in the field. It has been dramatic almost every day. To wit:

Since the SOS posted those numbers for September, the Democratic lead has expanded from 153,241 to 154,819 (as I write this because Clark updates every hour). So they are up almost 1,600 this month already. There’s something happening here, and what it is is very clear.

I remind everyone: the lead is probably about 141,000 because of inactives not taken off the active rolls in Clark after the primary. But every one of those voters is almost surely a Joe Biden voter – they are not registering wishy-washy Dems. And if the race is close, what the Dems do in the final weeks could be important.

In Washoe, where the Dems had taken the lead before the pandemic, the GOP is maintaining a 1,000 vote lead as of Oct. 1. For perspective, the GOP led by 4,000 in Washoe when Donald Trump lost the county by a percentage point in 2016, the first sign that Dems would run well there statewide and a phenomenon confirmed by Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Jacky Rosen winning there in 2018.

If a statewide Democratic candidate holds his or her own in Washoe, it’s almost impossible for a Republican to win.

Just for fun, here’s a chart of Washoe registration trends – you can see what happened in 2008, when Nevada became a swing state and the Democratic machine registered 30,000 new voters at the caucus:

The numbers dip in the off-years, but it’s clear what has happened since George W. Bush won the state in 2004 when the Republicans had a 18,000-vote lead in Washoe and he won the county by 7,000 votes. When Barack Obama crushed John McCain here by double digits, he won Washoe by 13 percentage points. Mitt Romney cut that margin in half in 2012, and Trump lost by 3,000 votes in 2016.

The trajectory seems to be favoring the GOP in presidential years since 2008. But the voter registration numbers are not that robust for the GOP compared to four years ago.

Later this week, I hope to dive into some legislative district registration numbers.

Always feel free to email me with questions.

Updated, 3:10 PM, 10/2/20

Just to re-emphasize: It's important to note that there are about 275,000 more registered voters now than in 2016, so the Democratic lead is not proportional to what it was. The parties have each added about 77,000 voters since 2016 -- the GOP actually has about a 300-voter edge right now since Trump lost here. As I have said, a 6 percentage point lead in 2016 is a 5 percentage point lead now -- and actually closer to 4 percent because of the Democratic losses with inactive voters still on the rolls.

We will see if that makes a difference, and we will know more once votes start coming in.

Updated, 1:25 PM, 10/2/20

Here's a look at some voter registration trends in Clark County this year — Republican operatives were bragging on social media about gaining 7,000 on the Dems since March, without mentioning they had lost 12,000 before the point from which they measured.

Here's what the chart looks like for this year:

Some of the dips for both parties were because of list maintenance. But the bottom line is that so far in 2020, the Democrats have gained 5,000 voters statewide. They would have been much further ahead, though, had it not been for the pandemic shutting down the Dem machine. You can see the flattening in the chart.

As for where we are now compared to 2016, take a look at this chart:

Bottom line: There is not a large amount of difference in the difference between the Republicans and Democrats since 2016 — the lead is just under 90,000, as I point out below. There has been no great GOP registration program or surge. But the Democratic machine being shut off during the pandemic - it was turned on again about two weeks ago - and about 75,000 faux active voters (they are on the rolls but are actually inactive because of a missed deadline) have reduced the percentage lead for the Democrats.

The only real surge has been in independent/third party voters, which have relegated the GOP to also-ran status in Clark (behind the Dems and others) and have, as you can see, far outpaced Dem and GOP growth since 2016. They will control the election, from top to bottom.

Updated, 3:30 PM, 10/1/20

The SOS released new voter registration numbers Thursday afternoon. Some thoughts on what they show:

----60,000 new voters is a lot of new voters for one month. 18,000 Republicans and 15,000 Democrats. Indies outregistered them both — 19,000. The Democratic lead over Republicans statewide is now 88,500, or a little more than 5 percent.

However, let me again remind everyone that the Clark County Democratic lead is likely inflated by about 14,000 voters because of inactive voters accidentally kept on the active rolls — so the Dem statewide lead is probably closer to 75,000, or a little more than 4 percent.

For comparison, on Election Day 2016, the lead was 88,800, or 6 percent. That's not an insignificant difference.

----Here are the gains by the parties during the last month, county by county:

Clark: GOP+86

Washoe: GOP+333

Carson City: GOP+229

Churchill: GOP+246

Douglas: GOP+393

Elko: GOP+454

Esmeralda: Dem+12

Eureka: GOP+24

Humboldt: GOP+176

Lander: GOP+43

Lincoln: GOP+57

Lyon: GOP+468

Mineral: GOP+32

Nye: GOP+459

Pershing: Dem+7

Storey: GOP+25

White Pine: GOP+71

So about three-quarters of the GOP gains in September came from rural Nevada while they increased their lead to about 1,000 in Washoe, the state’s swing county. (The GOP led by about 4,000 in 2016 when Trump lost Washoe.)

The Democrats only gained a little ground last month in those two rural counties because of routine list maintenance. It’s not significant.

So what does this all mean?

The Democratic machine started moving the needle in Clark again this week – the Dems have gained close to 1,500 in the last two weeks – but the GOP hopes to get the rural vote as high as possible, so the small county margins could be meaningful. Rural turnout (137,000 voters) was 13 percent of the vote in 2016, just under a point above its registration total, and Trump won the rurals by 58,000 votes while losing the state by 27,000 votes. (He lost Clark by 82,500 votes.)

Let’s do some math:

Trump garnered 65 percent of the rural vote last time, and I think it could easily be larger this cycle. Hillary Clinton took just over a quarter of the rural vote. It’s hard to believe Biden would go under 25 percent.

Let’s look at a GOP-generous scenario with rural turnout at 14 percent of the total votes cast and 1.5 million is the statewide turnout. (That means rural turnout would be 210,000.)

If Trump were to get 70 percent of the rural vote, and Biden were to get 25 percent, Trump would win the rurals by about 95,000 voters. That would be a phenomenal, unprecedented result.

Clinton got 52 percent of the vote in Clark and won by more than 10 points. It’s hard to believe Biden would do worse than she did, but let’s say he gets only 50 percent of the vote in Clark. And let’s suppose turnout in Clark also is slightly down and 1 million voters cast ballots. If Biden gets 50 percent and Trump gets 40 percent, the Democratic nominee would win Clark by 100,000 votes.

That means Trump would have to win Washoe by more than 5,000 votes to win. Clinton won Washoe by 3,000, but it's not impossible that Trump could win there.

But if Biden did as well as Clinton in Washoe, even under this near best-case scenario for the GOP in the rurals, the Democratic nominee would still win.

This is why juicing rural turnout to unheard of numbers is the key for the GOP, and it’s why the Democratic machine revving up again in Clark may be important if the race is close.

----Independents and third parties now make up 30 percent of the active voters in the state. And indies are like Republicans in rural Nevada. How they vote in Clark and Washoe will decide the race, I’d guess.

Updated, 3:00 PM, 9/30/20

A few words today about Nevada’s pair of supposedly competitive congressional districts now held by Democrats Susie Lee (CD3) and Steven Horsford (CD4):

CD3 is considered Nevada’s swing district, drawn 20 years ago specifically for then-GOP state Sen. Jon Porter and expected to become more Republican as suburban growth occurred. Indeed, Porter won the seat in 2002 and was re-elected twice. But the district has been held by three Democrats and two Republicans during its history, and the registration has remained slightly in the Democrats’ favor.

As you can see from the table below, the district has become slightly more Democratic since Lee crushed perennial contender Danny Tarkanian in 2018 – and the Democratic margin has grown there since January:

CD3	D	R	O	D advantage
Election Day 2018	161,826	154,762	127,797	1.6%
	36.4%	34.8%	28.8%
Beginning of 2020	166,709	155,801	135,690	2.4%
	36.4%	34.0%	29.6%
Now	179,110	165,296	149,280	2.8%
	36.3%	33.5%	30.2%

Still, President Donald Trump won the district by a point even as Democrat Jacky Rosen was winning the seat in 2016. So it was considered competitive this cycle. The GOP’s failure to recruit a top-tier candidate has left the party with ex pro wrestler Dan Rodimer, who would have to grab a significant portion of independent voters to win. Indies are now more than 30 percent of the registered voters in the district.

CD4 is a substantially Democratic district that encompasses parts of seven counties but 88 percent of the voters are in Clark. That part of the district is overwhelmingly Democratic – 50,000 more Democrats than Republicans out of 351,000. So if a Democrat can build up a substantial enough lead in Clark, the rural parts of the district essentially become irrelevant. The only time in its 10-year history that a Republican won was in an off-year, 2014, when then-Assemblyman Cresent Hardy upset Horsford.

I know Jim Marchant, this year’s GOP nominee. Jim Marchant is no Cresent Hardy. Hardy was a respected, veteran legislator; Marchant was in Carson City for one term and was never more than a backbencher.

As you can see from the table below, the Democratic edge has shrunk slightly since 2018:

CD4	D	R	O	D advantage
Election Day 2018	160,678	124,101	106,761	9.3%
	41.0%	31.7%	27.3%
Beginning of 2020	162,114	125,072	110,989	9.3%
	40.7%	31.4%	27.9%
Now	170,155	131,630	119,633	9.1%
	40.4%	31.2%	28.4%

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won this district by 5 percentage points as Ruben Kihuen was defeating Rep. Hardy by 4 points. Turnout is going to be huge this year in Nevada, so an underfunded, second-tier candidate such as Marchant would need a miracle to win. The only way a Republican can win this district -- all other things being equal -- would be in a low turnout year and one in which the rurals with their higher participation became more relevant. That’s how Hardy won.

I’ll start plugging in actual numbers when returned mail ballots start being recorded, perhaps as early as next week but at the latest by mid-October. I will be able to spot any odd trends right away. (I knew Horsford was in trouble in 2014 after just a few days of early voting, which starts Oct. 17 this year.)

----Update on Clark registration: As I write this, the Dems are up to 152,500 – an increase of 300 from when I posted Tuesday. The Dem machine is clearly humming along again in the homestretch.

I decided to redo the model by estimating what the deactivated voters during the primary – the ones that were placed back on the active rolls after a technical error – would do to the turnout models I provided in my initial post. Almost all of them will not vote because they are not at their last known addresses. It could make about a point of difference – compare to the first table below in the initial blog post.

A reminder of what the columns mean:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90/90/40-50	90/90/50-45	90/90/45-50
Biden	654,563	673,813	635,313	673,813	654,563
Trump	600,375	581,125	619,625	600,375	619,625
Rest	86,313	86,313	86,313	67,063	67,063
Biden	49%	50%	47%	50%	49%
Trump	45%	43%	46%	45%	46%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Margin	54,188	92,688	15,688	73,438	34,938

New statewide registration figures coming out tomorrow. I’ll tell you what they mean when I see them.

Note: This post was corrected at 3:45 PM to properly reflect the 2016 results in CD4. And also I corrected the CD4 spreadsheet (math errors are going to happen, and I appreciate my readers' vigilance) and Marchant's terms. He was there for even less of a cup of coffee than I recalled.

Updated, 3:45 PM, 9/29/20

A few quick notes this afternoon, loyal blog followers:

----If you are interested when ballots go out in Nevada -- Douglas County mailed theirs last week -- the secretary of state is tracking it here. Three more rural counties mailed today, three more mail Wednesday, Washoe County mails Friday, Clark County next week. The SOS will be tracking all the ballots as they come back, and I will tell you what those numbers mean.

----I will do some more modeling soon based on changing registration -- the SOS will post new numbers Oct. 1. I am going to use the SOS numbers, but I will also keep warning you of the caveat that they are slightly favorable to the Dems because the Clark numbers are artificially inflated because of voters rendered inactive after the primary. (They can vote if they are around, but the fact that their mail ballots were returned means they are likely gone.)

----The Clark firewall is starting to grow. It is up to a 153,200-voter lead for the Dems as I type this. I'll try to provide regular updates. But it's clear that the same third parties on the ground in 2016 and 2018 are back out there, surely wearing masks as they register voters...

Updated, 1:30, 9/28/20

The Democratic registration machine, sidelined for six months or so, appears to have kicked into gear again in Clark County as the Culinary and other groups are in the field. The fruits of their labor are beginning to show.

To wit:

The Democrats have once again surmounted 153,000 in their lead over Republicans in Clark County. They have picked up more than 500 voters since last week. That's not huge, but the Republicans had been gaining for a month or more. Remember, though, the lead is inflated by about 14,000 inactive voters because of a technical error by the Clark registrar -- those voters are on the rolls, but they are not expected to vote.

But the point is if the Dem machine, from the party to outside groups, is revved up again, that could make a substantial difference. Remember one of my mantras: Demographics are not destiny, but they matter.

In Washoe County, the Democrats, who took the lead before the pandemic but lost it once the Dem machine shut down, are behind by nearly 1,000 voters to the Republicans. Out of more than 291,000 total voters. Less than half a percent.

Washoe IS the swing county in Nevada.

More to come soon...

First post, published, 2 AM, 9/27/20

Elections are about many things — candidates, campaigns, issues.

But, ultimately, elections are about math.

This maxim I have repeated year after year, and that is what this early voting blog has been about since its inception: Keeping everyone abreast of numbers to watch as Nevadans turn out to vote. They are remarkably predictive because so many voters in Nevada are in the habit of casting ballots before Election Day, and, frankly, because I have studied the trends and data for decades. I have learned to recognize trends, know where the votes are and make relatively accurate forecasts.

In 2014, I was able to predict the coming red wave – the Republicans swept the state – after only a few days of early voting. I thought that a couple of high-profile Democrats might hang on (Ross Miller for AG and Steven Horsford for Congress), but even they lost in huge upsets. The GOP took both swing congressional seats, all constitutional offices and swept into legislative supremacy.

In 2016, I declared Hillary Clinton had won the state a few days before Election Day. The Democrats had banked so many votes in early voting that even a potent Election Day performance could not save Donald Trump. Republicans did well on Election Day, which is why Trump only lost by 2.5 points. But it was over by the Friday before the election.

In 2018, by the end of early voting, I showed how uphill the climb was for Republicans. I knew that Dean Heller and Adam Laxalt were well behind, and it turned out to be as the data indicated. Election Day turnout could not save either one, and the Democratic sweep indicated by the data came to pass, almost resulting in a supermajority in both houses of the Legislature.

Math is not like candidates or their ads; it does not lie.

I share all of this not to brag about my oracular brilliance — well, maybe a little — but to show how this blog’s data collection and experienced analysis has proven valuable and accurate in the past. Of course, 2020 is different.

Probably. Maybe.

I am starting the blog early this year, before any vote totals are available, because of all of the uncertainty and because of all the noise created by the president and his accomplices about how the election will work here. I want to set some baselines and make a few data points clear before the volume of the static gets any louder.

Election officials in Nevada are some of the best in the country, and they are preparing for possible chaos. But they are used to dealing with a lot of voting before Election Day, although not usually because of mail ballots, which have gone out in Douglas County, will go out in a handful of others next week and will be mailed in Clark County on Oct. 7.

It’s possible as many voters will have done their civic duty before Nov. 3 as in past elections, just in a different way. Absentee ballots usually are less than 10 percent of the total; this cycle they could be half or more.

In case you don’t know, early voting is huge in Nevada. Here are the percentages of early votes (mail and in-person) from the last four cycles:

2012: 69 percent statewide – 61 percent early votes and 8 percent mail votes. (In Clark, where the Dems always try to build a firewall, it was 70 percent – 63 percent early votes and 7 percent mail.)

2014: 55 percent statewide – 48 percent early votes and 7 percent mail. (In Clark, it was 56 percent – 50 percent early votes and 6 percent mail.)

2016: 69 percent statewide – 62.5 percent early votes and 6.5 percent mail ballots. (In Clark, it was also 69 percent – 64 percent early votes and 5 percent mail.)

2018: 66 percent statewide – 57 percent early votes and 9 percent mail ballots. (In Clark, 65 percent -- 58 percent early votes and 7 percent mail.)

2014 was an aberration — a midterm election where the Democratic machine sputtered. But in the two presidential years and last cycle, the Clark firewall was enough for the Democratic top of the ticket and down-ballot to be successful. And in 2012 and 2016, when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton won the state, the Clark early/mail totals exceeded two-thirds of the total vote.

So: With relatively few votes to be cast on Election Day, if the Democrats build up a robust enough Clark firewall during early voting, the GOP can’t win. Not all of those Democrats will vote for the nominee, but an overwhelming majority will, and that was enough in 2012 and 2016.

For those of you unfamiliar with or forgetful about how elections work here, Nevada is three regions when it comes to dissecting numbers: Clark (about 70 percent of total voters), dominated by Democrats; Washoe (about 18 percent of total), close in registration between the major parties; and the rurals (about 12 percent of total), dominated by Republicans. You can see from the chart below just how dominant Clark County is, moving from 68 percent of the total voter registration in 2012 to more than 70 percent now. Washoe and the rurals have both fallen slightly since 2012.

Part of the story this year, though, is how Democratic registration in Clark has not moved a lot in the last six months because of the pandemic. By now, the Democrats would have been destroying the Republicans every month, pulling out to an insurmountable lead. They are still way ahead, and the Republicans are essentially a third party in Clark as this chart shows:

But there are telling stats to keep in mind:

----The Democrats had a 134,000-voter lead in Clark a year ago. By mid-March, aided by a new motor-voter law and its own formidable machine, that number was 153,000. And then the pandemic hit. The lead is now 153,000 — essentially unchanged. But, in reality, it’s actually even lower — it’s just under 140,000 — because 75,000 Clark County voters were rendered inactive after the primary but technically stayed on the active rolls because the locals missed a federal deadline to remove them. The chart below shows it quite starkly — I have subtracted the de facto inactives to show the drop of the lead by about 14,000 voters:

----What does this mean? The Democrats are only slightly better off than where they were a year ago, but still have a double-digit registration edge in Clark County, even if you use the 140,000-voters lead (the more accurate metric). That is an 11.5 percent advantage.

For comparison: In 2016, the lead was 142,000, which is about the same in raw numbers. But the percentage – 14 percent – was significantly higher because there were fewer voters on the rolls. (Barack Obama had firewalls of 15 percent both times he won the state.)

Hillary Clinton won Clark County by 82,000 votes, or 10.5 percent. That is too close for comfort for most statewide Democratic candidates, who must win Clark by 10 percent to win a statewide contest.

Clinton won the state by 27,000 votes after barely winning Washoe County and losing rural Nevada by nearly – wait for it – 60,000 votes. Nobody has ever crushed it in the rurals as Trump did. (Romney won the rurals by 40,000 votes.) This is why voter registration is so important and why the pandemic has been an unexpected blessing for the Republicans here in terms of voter numbers.

The bottom line: The Clark firewall is not what it was, not because of the GOP machine but because the Democrats have been handcuffed — and because of the rise of independent/third party voters, who now make up 30 percent of the Clark County electorate. That is more than the GOP (29 percent), which has been relegated to de facto third-party status in Southern Nevada.

It would have been much worse without COVID-19 for the Republicans. Look at what the Democrats did in the last three months of the cycle in 2012 and 2016 in voter registration:

2012: 56,000-voter lead to 90,000-voter lead

2016: 72,000 to 90,000

The statewide lead now is about what it was the last two presidential cycles — about 90,000. That is about 5.5 percent. In 2012, it was more than 7 percent; in 2016, it was more than 6 percent.

----There is another metric to consider, which is the percentage of turnout in each area of the state. See what happened the last two presidential cycles:

2012	Statewide turnout	Clark turnout	Washoe turnout	Rural turnout
Turnout	81.0%	81.0%	78.0%	82.6%
% overall turnout		68.1%	18.5%	13.4%
% turnout relative to registration numbers		0.4%	-0.7%	0.3%

2016	Statewide turnout	Clark turnout	Washoe turnout	Rural turnout
Turnout	76.7%	75.2%	79.4%	81.1%
% overall turnout		68.1%	18.7%	13.2%
% turnout relative to registration numbers		-1.4%	0.7%	0.7%

Rural Nevada always turns out in greater numbers (by percentage) than the urban areas, and there is reason to believe rural turnout could be stratospheric this cycle. Douglas County, an ultra-red county in Northern Nevada, had 94 percent turnout in 2016! It is the only county to send out mail ballots so far, and my guess is nearly every voter in that county – and there are 37,000 of them, about 8,000 more than 2016 – will cast a ballot. That could matter. Trump won Douglas by 9,000 votes in 2016. He will win it by even more this time, I’d guess.

----One of the reasons voter registration is so important is that the Republicans almost always have an edge in turnout, usually slightly more than the Democrats here. That is why the Democrats work so hard to build up a registration lead. Let me show you what happened in 2012 and 2016:

2012	% overall	% of base
Dem turnout	42.0%	81.6%
GOP turnout	36.0%	84.8%
Others turnout	21.0%	72.4%
Voter reg margins	D	R	O
Actual registration	526,986	436,799	293,836
	41.9%	34.7%	23.4%
Turnout relative to reg	0.1%	1.3%	-2.4%

2016	% overall	% of base
Dem turnout	40.1%	78.2%
GOP turnout	35.9%	82.7%
Others turnout	23.9%	67.7%
Voter reg margins	D	R	O
Actual registration	577,679	488,861	398,279
	39.4%	33.4%	27.2%
Turnout relative to reg	0.7%	2.5%	-3.3%

You can see why the election was relatively close in Nevada in 2016: because of that difference in Democratic and Republican turnout relative to registration. The Democrats had banked enough votes before Election Day that even a robust Election Day performance was not enough for the GOP.

Will that happen this time? That’s what this blog is here to track.

----As the ballots get returned and especially after early voting starts Oct. 17, I will continuously model what the electorate could look like. Let me show you an example based on current registration and with some assumptions:

The table below shows five different scenarios if the election were held today and both parties turned out 85 percent of their bases and 80 percent of other voters turned out. Remember how many uncertainties exist because mail balloting substantially increases this cycle. But for the sake of argument:

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

(One note on these initial models: They use registration figures including the inflated Clark County active voter figures -- I am going to get the actual number of de facto inactive voters in Clark and adjust future models accordingly.)

	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90/90/40-50	90/90/50-45	90/90/45-50
Biden	*690,710*	*710,496*	*670,925*	*710,496*	*690,710*
Trump	624,576	604,790	644,361	624,576	644,361
Rest	90,053	90,053	90,053	70,267	70,267
Biden	49%	51%	48%	51%	49%
Trump	44%	43%	46%	44%	46%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Margin	66,135	105,706	26,563	85,920	46,349

So how could Trump win?

If he won indies by 20 points and both parties got 90 percent of their bases, here’s what would happen:

	90-90-35-55
Biden	651,139
Trump	*664,147*
Rest	90,053
Biden	46%
Trump	47%
Rest	6%
Margin	13,008

That’s just a taste. Obviously Biden or Trump could get less or more of their bases, and others could turn out more or less than 80 percent. I will have many more permutations as the votes come in, and I can model more accurately based on the turnout and projected turnout.

But you can see why the registration edge matters because in those scenarios, Biden wins every time, and you can also see that how indies break matters so much — even if Trump were to win others here by 10 percent, if Biden holds his base, the president would lose as things stand today.

When ballots start getting returned, I will be updating this blog at least once a day and likely more than once. For now, I will add to it when I find something interesting such as registration changes.

This installment is focused on the presidential race, but I will have updates soon on the supposedly competitive congressional races and the legislative contests.

Feel free to email me at [email protected]. I will do my best to answer all questions.

Welcome to the early voting blog!

County	D	R	O	Total
Carson	7008	9284	4429
Churchill	1,727	5,257	1,872
Douglas	5,895	12,634	4,310
Elko	2,306	8,515	3,264
Esmeralda	25	109	50
Eureka	53	430	114
Humboldt	797	2,856	1,032
Lander	313	1,284	348
Lincoln	284	689	233
Lyon	4,717	11,314	4,710
Mineral	493	646	337
Nye	4,460	9,425	4,085
Pershing	332	881	301
Storey	522	967	410
White Pine	610	1,407	576
Total	29,542	65,698	26,071	121,311
%	24.4%	54.2%	21.5%	36,156

29-Oct
County	Total	Left	Turnout	D	R	O
Clark	1,209,207	579,207	52.1%	208,931	139,499	213,236
Washoe	304,307	122,783	59.7%	35,110	39,238	45,558
Lyon	40,112	19,371	51.7%	3,187	8,455	7,194
Douglas	38,817	15,978	58.8%	2,756	8,171	4,799
Carson	37,340	16,619	55.5%	4,008	6,501	5,922
Nye	33,920	15,950	53.0%	3,224	6,904	5,473
Elko	25,230	11,145	55.8%	1,432	5,276	3,856
Churchill	15,763	7,604	51.8%	884	3,439	2,382
Humboldt	8,736	4,051	53.6%	547	2,115	1,260
White Pine	5,268	2,675	49.2%	450	1,381	754
Storey	3,608	1,709	52.6%	281	811	615
Lander	3,308	1,363	58.8%	191	651	462
Mineral	3,129	1,653	47.2%	386	648	571
Lincoln	3,025	1,819	39.9%	225	1,203	361
Pershing	2,832	1,318	53.5%	204	646	416
Eureka	1,135	538	52.6%	29	690	142
Esmeralda	561	377	32.8%	54	215	95
Total	1,736,298	804,160	53.7%	261,899	225,843	293,096
%		46.3%		40.7%	39.8%	55.9%

County	D	R	Other	Total	D %	R%	O%	2016 result
Carson	6,818	8,789	4,224	19,831	34.4%	44.3%	21.3%	52-38
Churchill	1,640	4,794	1,725	8,159	20.1%	58.8%	21.1%	72-20
Douglas	5,806	12,010	4,151	21,967	26.4%	54.7%	18.9%	62-30
Elko	1,968	6,135	2,266	10,369	19.0%	59.2%	21.9%	73-18
Esmeralda	25	109	50	184	13.6%	59.2%	27.2%	78-15
Eureka	42	309	94	445	9.4%	69.4%	21.1%	85-9
Humboldt	701	2,335	816	3,852	18.2%	60.6%	21.2%	70-22
Lanxder	299	1,188	324	1,811	16.5%	65.6%	17.9%	76-17
Lincoln	267	605	207	1,079	24.7%	56.1%	19.2%	78-13
Lyon	4,472	10,264	4,291	19,027	23.5%	53.9%	22.6%	67-26
Mineral	471	575	315	1,361	34.6%	42.2%	23.1%	59-32
Nye	3,597	7,091	3,078	13,766	26.1%	51.5%	22.4%	68-26
Pershing	302	758	266	1,326	22.8%	57.2%	20.1%	71-22
Storey	489	894	376	1,759	27.8%	50.8%	21.4%	63-29
White Pine	587	1,316	542	2,445	24.0%	53.8%	22.2%	72-19
Total	27,484	57,172	22,725	107,381
	25.6%	53.2%	21.2%
GOP lead	29,688

28-Oct
County	Total	Left	Turnout	D	R	O
Clark	1,206,959	626,959	48.1%	228,180	156,349	216,776
Washoe	304,056	129,542	57.4%	36,967	42,505	47,444
Lyon	40,057	21,030	47.5%	3,432	9,505	7,613
Douglas	38,776	16,809	56.7%	2,845	8,795	4,958
Carson	37,305	17,474	53.2%	4,198	6,996	6,127
Nye	33,888	20,122	40.6%	4,087	8,738	6,480
Elko	25,111	14,742	41.3%	1,770	7,656	4,854
Churchill	15,748	7,589	51.8%	971	3,902	2,529
Humboldt	8,725	4,873	44.1%	643	2,636	1,476
White Pine	5,250	2,805	46.6%	473	1,472	788
Storey	3,606	1,847	48.8%	314	884	649
Lander	3,301	1,490	54.9%	205	747	486
Mineral	3,124	1,763	43.6%	408	719	593
Lincoln	3,025	1,946	35.7%	242	1,287	387
Pershing	2,825	1,499	46.9%	234	769	451
Eureka	1,135	690	39.2%	40	811	162
Esmeralda	560	376	32.9%	54	215	95
Total	1,733,451	871,556	49.7%	285,063	253,986	301,868
%		50.3%		44.3%	44.8%	57.6%

27-Oct
County	Total	Left	Turnout	D left	R left	O left
Clark	1,205,222	677,812	43.8%	249,527	174,786	239,666
Washoe	303,756	135,890	55.3%	38,599	45,824	49,141
Lyon	39,993	23,179	42.0%	3,786	10,820	8,156
Douglas	38,752	18,454	52.4%	3,097	9,902	5,268
Carson	37,277	19,053	48.9%	4,600	7,824	6,504
Nye	33,852	20,748	38.7%	4,164	9,685	6,618
Elko	25,059	15,486	38.2%	1,844	8,157	5,075
Churchill	15,734	8,310	47.2%	1,062	4,370	2,705
Humboldt	8,714	5,746	34.1%	759	3,184	1,696
White Pine	5,236	2,905	44.5%	493	1,542	812
Storey	3,604	1,928	46.5%	331	935	664
Lander	3,291	1,607	51.2%	220	837	508
Mineral	3,120	1,816	41.8%	424	747	606
Lincoln	3,024	1,975	34.7%	251	1,303	392
Pershing	2,812	1,486	47.2%	234	769	451
Eureka	1,135	690	39.2%	40	811	162
Esmeralda	558	374	33.0%	54	215	95
Total	1,731,139	937,459	45.8%	309,485	281,711	328,519
%		54.2%		48.5%	50.2%	64.0%

The Nevada Independent

The Nevada Independent

The early voting blog

29-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50
Biden	454,950	465,950	443,950	465,950	454,950
Trump	417,550	406,550	428,550	417,550	428,550
Rest	57,500	57,500	57,500	46,500	46,500
Biden	49%	50%	48%	50%	49%
Trump	45%	44%	46%	45%	46%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	37,400 (Biden)	59,400 (Biden)	15,400 (Biden)	48,400 (Biden)	26,400 (Biden)

27-Oct	90-90-45/45	90-90-50/40	90-90-40/50	90-90-50/45	90-90-45/50
Biden	397,450	406,750	388,150	406,750	397,450
Trump	353,250	343,950	362,550	353,250	362,550
Rest	49,300	49,300	49,300	40,000	40,000
Biden	50%	51%	49%	51%	50%
Trump	44%	43%	45%	44%	45%
Rest	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
Victory margin	44,200 (Biden)	62,800 (Biden)	25,600 (Biden)	53,500 (Biden)	34,900 (Biden)

County	Dem	IAP	Libertarian	NP	Other	Republican	Total
Carson City	11,039	1,951	465	7,654	303	15,831	37,243
Churchill	2,618	807	177	3,244	102	8,774	15,722
Clark	520,600	55,392	11,307	313,135	14,092	364,934	1,279,460
Douglas	8,674	1,745	412	6,772	211	20,900	38,714
Elko	3,766	1,236	319	5,545	166	13,946	24,978
Esmeralda	80	45	10	89	7	324	555
Eureka	81	70	7	177	5	795	1,135
Humboldt	1,351	415	85	1,778	59	5,019	8,707
Lander	507	156	27	617	18	1,964	3,289
Lincoln	508	162	11	414	14	1,912	3,021
Lyon	7,969	2,388	515	8,822	339	19,918	39,951
Mineral	889	193	29	680	19	1,305	3,115
Nye	7,718	2,194	337	6,909	267	16,410	33,835
Pershing	541	128	25	563	11	1,539	2,807
Storey	799	212	54	735	28	1,776	3,604
Washoe	106,487	13,806	3,840	68,494	3,595	107,221	303,443
White Pine	1,058	294	41	982	30	2,820	5,225
Statewide	674,685	81,194	17,661	426,610	19,266	585,388	1,804,804

26-Oct
County	Total	Left	Turnout	D left	R left	O left
Clark	1,204,068	709,968	41.0%	260,897	187,962	248,430
Washoe	303,443	149,443	50.8%	43,167	51,187	53,080
Lyon	39,951	26,349	34.0%	4,212	12,870	8,893
Douglas	38,714	20,585	46.8%	3,501	11,265	5,856
Carson	37,243	21,178	43.1%	5,177	8,891	7,019
Nye	33,835	20,970	38.0%	4,186	9,847	6,673
Elko	24,978	16,341	34.6%	1,938	8,775	5,299
Churchill	15,722	9,036	42.5%	1,161	4,844	2,870
Humboldt	8,707	5,739	34.1%	759	3,184	1,696
White Pine	5,225	3,175	39.2%	537	1,723	868
Storey	3,604	2,052	43.1%	354	1,002	698
Lander	3,289	1,751	46.8%	231	939	541
Mineral	3,115	1,905	38.8%	455	781	635
Lincoln	3,021	2,068	31.5%	291	1,338	413
Pershing	2,807	1,685	40.0%	263	892	503
Eureka	1,135	705	37.9%	41	822	165
Esmeralda	555	371	33.2%	54	215	95
Total	1,729,412	993,321	42.6%	327,224	306,537	343,734
%		57.4%		51.2%	54.6%	67.0%