With incumbent President Joe Biden running against a field of mostly unknown or perennial candidates, Nevada’s Feb. 6 presidential primary isn’t exactly coming down to the wire.

But the Biden campaign has nonetheless focused on Nevada in the run-up to the primary, bookending the early voting period with visits from the vice president and the president himself. 

They staffed up in Nevada before Arizona and Pennsylvania, announcing in December a team of four operatives with in-state campaign experience. And they’ve already sent several campaign surrogates out to connect with key voter blocs, including acting Labor Secretary Julie Su to speak with Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters and 27-year-old Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) to engage young voters at a UNLV roundtable on gun violence. 

But with its relatively few electoral votes, saturated Las Vegas media market and distance from the campaign’s Wilmington, Delaware headquarters, why has Nevada received outsized attention from the Biden campaign? 

The answer? Without a caucus to run — which requires significant money and time — and with an uncompetitive primary, Biden’s staff can focus exclusively on building out a volunteer operation and testing their messaging early into the cycle in a battleground state. The goal, campaign staff say, is to engage both volunteers and voters months ahead of when they typically think about the general election and to clarify the stakes on a number of issues they believe Biden can win on — chief among them abortion, health care and the threat they say former President Donald Trump poses to democracy. And Nevada, of course, is one of six true swing states where the election will be decided.

“We've had a lot of surrogates who are super pumped to be in the state because they know how critical it's going to be,” said Shelby Wiltz, the Nevada state director for Biden’s campaign.

Despite the Nevada team’s deep in-state experience, they’ll have to contend with the factor Biden’s team is dealing with all over the country — his unpopularity. His approval polling average is below 40 percent nationally, and polls of the Nevada electorate routinely find Biden losing to Trump by margins between 2 and 12 percentage points.

But can campaign minds — even the best — out-organize their candidate’s unpopularity or an electorate that is tired of both candidates?

David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV, said the Biden campaign’s early staffing and recent rallies signal that the campaign is taking Nevada more seriously than it did in 2020, when Biden won Nevada with a nearly identical margin to 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton despite beating Clinton’s percentages in other swing states.

“In 2020, I think they were caught a little flat-footed here,” Damore said. “I think they'd sort of believed the hype that this is a Democratic state. And between COVID and maybe looking to expand the board in Georgia and Arizona, they didn't plan as well for here.”

Although Democrats have won the last four presidential elections in the state, the last two were won by fewer  than 3 percentage points — tracking with a decline in Democrats’ margins in Clark County. In 2012, then-President Barack Obama won the state’s population center by nearly 15 percentage points; in 2022, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-NV) margin in Clark had shrunk to about 8 percentage points.

Zachary Moyle, the president of Republican consulting group Reformation Strategies who is consulting on down-ballot races in the state, said the Biden campaign hired a “crack team” — but that, in his polling experience, even the best operatives can only move races by about 2 points.

“They are, without a doubt, hands down, better than the Republican operatives,” Moyle said. “That is undebatable. But it still boils back down to: Can I win with the best operative in the world if I don't get my messaging right? And the answer is no.” 

Democrats will also have to contend with a revitalized Republican apparatus helmed by Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), who is trying to build a political machine — albeit outside of the Trump campaign or state party, and mainly focused on state legislative races — to contend with the well-oiled Reid Machine that has driven Democratic victories.

“Republicans have upped their game here,” Damore said. “It’s outside the state party, but [it’s] something we haven't really seen much of in Nevada on the Republican side. And the Trump campaign never really left.” 

Former staffers on Nevada campaigns said Biden’s Nevada organization is well-versed in the state’s unique campaign terrain and diverse electorate. The team is managed by Wiltz, the chair of the Clark County Democratic Party and a veteran of Biden’s 2020 campaign and Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-NV) 2018 Senate race. Chelsey Wininger, who has worked on Nevada campaigns since Clinton’s 2016 election and was executive director of the Nevada Assembly Democratic Caucus in the 2020 cycle, is Wiltz’s deputy. 

Sean Hoey, who worked on the Beto O’Rourke campaign in Las Vegas in 2020 and came from the state party, is serving as Team Biden’s Nevada general election director. Demi Falcon, a longtime aide for Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), joined the campaign as political and coalitions director. Michael Cullen, the chief of staff for former Lt. Gov. Kate Marshall (D), and Molly Forgey, a communications operative who has worked for Nevada Democrats dating back to Sen. Harry Reid (D), are consulting on the campaign as well.

“We've been here cycle after cycle, so we're used to this,” Wiltz said. “We're used to starting early. You have to in order to win here.”

Jorge Neri, a Democratic consultant unaffiliated with the 2024 presidential race who served as Clinton’s state director in Nevada in 2016 and worked on Obama’s 2012 campaign in the Silver State, said he was impressed with the “high-level talent” Biden’s operation has been able to secure.

“Everyone there has lived in the state, has worked multiple cycles in the state, has been on winning campaigns, has been on losing campaigns,” said Neri, who was a senior adviser on Biden’s 2020 campaign.

Strategy

In the past, voter registration was the chief goal for presidential campaigns — both Democratic and Republican operatives still speak with reverence about 2008, when Democrats registered 30,000 voters in 90 minutes during the caucus.

But with the state having implemented automatic voter registration in 2020 and passing a law to automatically send mail ballots to all registered voters (unless they opt out), campaigns at this early stage are now all in on engaging the existing voter pool, given voting is now easier than ever.

“Nevada, it's such a transient state,” Neri said. “So you're constantly list building and list cleaning. Whoever goes into Election Day with the best list will win.”

Though registering voters, particularly young voters, is still part of the Biden campaign’s blueprint, Wiltz said that training volunteers and doing voter outreach — asking voters about their biggest concerns this cycle — are critical parts of their strategy.

Neri said that without serious challenges from primary opponents, campaign operatives can ensure they have the correct information for voters already on their target lists and collect new data. The state’s presidential primary also presents an opportunity to identify and motivate volunteers.

Between the surrogates, the campaign rallies and even a yard sign distribution event with former Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Biden campaign staffers said they’re viewing the primary as somewhat of a dry run for the general election — activating volunteers to staff those events, training them on both campaign mechanics and messaging and finding their most reliable volunteers.

“All of the folks that we've engaged over the past month will be the base of the super volunteers that are going to be out on weekends, registering voters, calling and talking to folks, starting to get used to putting their walking shoes back on and knocking on doors and so on,” Wiltz said. “You can expect all of those programs to start early here.”

Donna West, a longtime Democratic volunteer who hosted the yard sign events with Sisolak and Newsom, said she was surprised by how many people wanted to get Biden-Harris yard signs this early in the election year — “even people who live in an HOA and can’t put them up until October!” she joked.

“The polls and the approval rating and all of that [are tough], but at the end of the day, when it's time to make that choice, people are going to show up and they're going to mark their ballot for Joe Biden,” West said.

Wiltz said attention on the primary creates an opportunity to build relationships with the constituencies who make up Biden’s coalition — specifically listing young people, AAPI, Hispanic and Black communities, labor, women and seniors. Once the primary is over, Wiltz said the goal will be to continue to reach voters through both in-person conversations — a marked difference from the online focus of the COVID-influlenced 2020 cycle — and digital advertising. In a state with tight margins, Wiltz said the Biden team plans to use a variety of approaches, from texting and calling to driving canvassers around different neighborhoods to hosting house parties.

The visits from the candidates themselves also help to gin up enthusiasm, staffers said — and represent the national campaign organization’s focus on Nevada. Neri said the visits are no small feat. In his campaign experience, it could be challenging to convince candidates to take the time to come to Nevada when other early states and other battlegrounds are closer to Washington.

“The fact that the vice president has been there twice already is huge,” Neri said. “And the president's commitment to go there when there isn't an opponent just continues to reinforce the importance of the state.”

And West said the transition from the off-year to the election year has been swift.

“I feel like we went from having the car in park to flooring it,” she said. “It's been a very active presidential primary period, even more so than I expected.”

Moyle, however, cautioned against a focus on door-knocking and calling voters. He said to win, Democrats will have to avoid the mistakes that plagued them in 2016 — having base voters stay home because they were put off by Clinton. He said the best thing campaigns can do is ensure, like in 2020, that the party’s progressive wing is on board with Biden and that in Nevada specifically, all the Democratic interest groups, from the Culinary Union to teachers’ unions, are in alignment. 

But he agreed that Biden’s chances come down to how excited the base is, barring a drop in gas, food and other prices by September — not whether Biden 2020 voters will defect to Trump, but whether they choose to stay home. Despite winning the state by similar margins relative to Trump, Biden won 50 percent of votes in the state in 2020 while Clinton only won about 48 percent — and voter registration numbers between the two parties are now a lot tighter. 

“It really comes down to ‘Will Democrats have the same level of enthusiasm and support they had in ‘20?’,” Moyle said. “Right now, it looks a lot more like ‘16, and in a lot of cases, it looks even better than ‘16 for Trump,” Moyle said. 

While the lack of a caucus saves the campaign money and time, Damore said in the past, caucuses have been a prime opportunity to energize voters at the precinct level. So, the Biden campaign will need to find other ways to generate enthusiasm — amid a backdrop in which poor consumer sentiment and Biden’s underwater approval rating present Republicans with a massive opportunity.

The Trump campaign’s Nevada efforts are being led by Alida Benson, formerly the executive director of the state party. Benson did not respond to a request for comment on the Biden team’s strategy.

While the Trump campaign’s efforts are focused on educating voters about the Republican Party’s Nevada caucus and ensuring they turn out — Trump will not appear on the primary ballot, while his only viable challenger, Nikki Haley, will — Damore said their campaign operation has been active in the state for years, having been so entwined with the Nevada GOP.

“This is a winnable state for the Republicans,” Damore said. “This is not something that the Democrats can take for granted.”