Indy Elections: Will control of the House run through Nevada?
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
Editor's note: This newsletter was originally published on Sept. 5, 2023.
In today’s edition: We resist, as best we can, making too many casino puns about the House. Democrats have held the state’s competitive House districts for four consecutive cycles. Is 2024 the year Republicans finally break through? Plus, an exclusive look at the Biden campaign’s ad push as it (again) descends upon Nevada.
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Days until:
- Presidential candidate filing opens: 27
- Nevada presidential primary: 154
- GOP presidential caucus: 156
- Election Day: 427
Both Democrats and Republicans are betting on the House
Web hed: 2024 House races: Las Vegas districts again in spotlight as GOP seeks to unseat Democratic incumbents
The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives will again run through Las Vegas, where three of the state’s four congressional districts were decided by less than 6 points in 2022.
The three Southern Nevada districts — represented by Democratic Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford — are all on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) target list. Similarly, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified Lee and Horsford as participants in its Frontline program aimed at defending competitive seats.
Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV), meanwhile, won his last election in his solidly red Northern Nevada-based district by more than 20 points, making his seat safe. Amodei told members of the Carson City Chamber of Commerce last week that he would seek another term in 2024.
The three Las Vegas districts were redrawn by legislative Democrats in 2021 to give each one a slight Democratic majority in registered voters, changing the boundaries of the solidly blue 1st District to make it more competitive while shoring up Democratic advantages in the other two districts. The strategy paid off in 2022, with each Democrat winning re-election by between 4 and 6 points.
While the NRCC does not endorse in primaries, it is engaged in recruitment and messaging efforts in Las Vegas as it tries to defend and expand its narrow five-seat House majority.
Here's more on Nevada’s House Democrats and their Republican challengers:
Democrats refresher
At this point, none of Nevada’s House Democrats are new to politics.
That’s especially true for Titus, previously a longtime state senator who is in her seventh (nonconsecutive) term in the House. Titus represents the 1st District — a majority-minority district that includes the Strip and parts of southeast Clark County, including Boulder City and most of Henderson.
While still early in the cycle, Titus has raised just over $281,000 — well below totals reported by other incumbents in battleground seats. She’ll receive support from the DCCC as well as a host of Democratic-aligned groups, but her paltry fundraising totals are worth noting given state Democrats typically outraise Republican challengers.
Lee, who represents a district encompassing the western part of Las Vegas, Summerlin South and southern Clark County down to Laughlin, has posted strong fundraising totals this year. She raised nearly $1.1 million through June, giving her a strong start while Republicans duke it out in a primary. Now in her third term, Lee has begun to climb into some leadership roles, serving as vice chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers’ Caucus and the whip of the center-left New Democrats.
Finally, Horsford — a former state Senate majority leader — has increased his national profile in his fourth term as the chair of the influential Congressional Black Caucus, making him the congressional face of a powerful constituency. The post widens Horsford’s fundraising pool — he hosted a fundraiser at a Beyoncé concert earlier this month.
Horsford has raised just over $1 million thus far this cycle.
Republican challengers
None of the Republican challengers in 2022 were able to take advantage of a midterm environment that experts predicted would favor them.
This time around, Republicans are hoping to close the fundraising gap between their challengers and the Democratic incumbents, and best navigate a crowded media environment that will be dominated by presidential and Senate advertising.
Campaigning in Las Vegas has become a costly proposition in recent cycles, with both the 1st and 3rd Districts placing among the most expensive House races in the country in 2022. And with a number of unique attributes — a highly transient population, Clark County split into three districts, and a propensity of voters who work nontraditional hours and require creative outreach beyond standard paid media appeals — cash goes a long way in getting out the vote.
In the 1st District, potential Titus challengers include her unsuccessful 2022 challenger Mark Robertson, a retired U.S. Army Colonel who is running again, restaurant owner Flemming Larsen, or businessman Ron Quince. All three have previously run for office.
Larsen has the advantage of a significant self-funding operation; he has loaned his campaign $650,000, contributing to a cash-on-hand advantage of more than $350,000 over Titus. Larsen lost a close Assembly race in 2022 to Democrat Max Carter II by just under 2 points. His website is already focused on the general election, dinging Titus on everything from border security to water access to being a career politician.
The 3rd District has the most ready-made candidate: Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas). Representing South Summerlin and Southwest Las Vegas in the Legislature, Kasama, a longtime real estate broker, should have the backing of high-powered real estate players and already has the most prominent endorsement of the cycle — a stamp of approval from Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.
Kasama will face policy analyst Drew Johnson and former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien in what is shaping up to be a messy primary. Johnson has the endorsement of several of Kasama’s Republican colleagues in the Legislature and state Controller Andy Matthews.
Finally, Horsford, who was the biggest beneficiary of redistricting and now has the most Democrat-leaning district among the three, only has one declared challenger thus far — retired U.S. Army Air Force Llt. Col. David Flippo, who has raised just shy of $138,000. Flippo’s biggest headline thus far has been a Twitter gaffe in which he shared a photo of an African village claiming it was the U.S. border — a snafu that made it into Politico.
But with still 11 months to go until the Republican primary, strategists expect more candidates to emerge.
— Gabby Birenbaum
What we’re reading and writing
Assemblywoman Michelle Gorelow won’t run for re-election amid scrutiny over nonprofit ties, by Jacob Solis
Gorelow’s exit will intensify efforts by Republicans to flip her swing district and stave off a Democratic supermajority.
Legislator didn’t disclose nonprofit tie before voting to give it $100K in funds, by the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Jessica Hill
In a related note, a second Assembly Democrat gets tied to a nonprofit funding imbroglio.
Pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC ends door-knocking in Nevada and Super Tuesday states, by NBC News’ Natasha Korecki
Never Back Down PAC and the art of sometimes backing down (in Nevada, at least).
Nevada’s primary debacle has some GOP campaigns threatening to write off the state, by NBC News’ Natasha Korecki
Will havoc from the Nevada GOP primary/caucus erase its early status prestige? Asking for a friend.
Amodei says he will seek re-election in 2024, by The Nevada Appeal’s Scott Neuffer
And I quote: “He joked he doesn’t want to die in office.”
Indy Ad Watch
Exclusive: Biden campaign targets NFL kickoff with battleground blitz
When we all watch the Kansas City Chiefs eviscerate an overmatched Detroit Lions squad during Thursday night’s NFL season opener, so too will Nevadans see the latest TV ad push from President Joe Biden as part of his campaign’s $25 million early-state spending spree.
Dubbed “Got to Work,” the ad — running in Nevada as part of a broader 16-week long advertising campaign running in battleground states — touts the “Bidenomics” agenda in the post-COVID era (though the Bidenomics label is nowhere to be seen). The ad highlights record low unemployment and 3 percent inflation, both claims tempered by narration as the ad ends: “There’s more to do, but President Biden is getting results that matter.”
It comes as consumer sentiment about the economy remains mixed, even amid improving indicators. To wit, another claim made in the ad that the president helped “cut utility bills” may ring hollow for Nevadans who saw their energy costs soar this summer.
Watch the full 30- second ad here.
The Lightning Round
🚨New candidate nickname alert — For the real heads who remember 2018’s “Wacky Jacky,” we saw a new nickname for Nevada’s junior senator emerge this week. From the Washington Examiner on Friday: “‘Ritzy Rosen has zero credibility on this issue,’" Brown's campaign manager Faith Jones told the Washington Examiner, referring to the senator's healthcare positions.” It comes as Republicans look to undermine Democrats on drug pricing — but it also follows the push by GOP Senate hopeful Jeff Gunter to get “Scam Brown” to stick earlier last month. Make of that what you will.
🎉🙅🗳️ Nevada Day Parade axes political campaigning — Nevada Day board Executive Director Brooke Santina said in an announcement last Thursday there will be no campaigning during the upcoming Nevada Day Parade in October. In an effort to “calm the triggers that promote bad behavior” such as lunging and yelling profanities at elected officials, there will be no paraphernalia geared towards influencing someone’s vote allowed at the parade. Sitting officials are however invited to come represent their offices as they have before.
🍸Two candidates walk into a reception — This week in politician sightings in their natural habitat, Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) and her (likely) top GOP rival, Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas) were at a VIP reception celebrating the renaming of Nevada State University (NSU) last Wednesday. Though Kasama briefly shook hands with Lee’s counterpart, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), she did not appear to meet or greet Lee.
🏛️Susie Lee on legislating under a GOP-controlled House — At that NSU reception, Lee took a parting shot at GOP House leadership. Asked by The Nevada Independent about the viability of a path to congressional student loan reform, she said: “There is a lot of activity around polarizing and dividing this country and not dealing with real problems that we're facing. This is a Republican-led effort that's really marching us down a path towards a government shutdown. And so I have deep concerns about the leadership of the Republican Party right now.”
💸And about those student loans… — As student debtors prepare for the resumption of federal student loan payments for the first time in three years next month, Lee also said, in part: “If you do debt relief without doing any reforms to how we incentivize college financing, then all you're doing is exacerbating the problem.” Those reforms, she said, could include additional transparency requirements, but more broadly: “We, in Congress, need to do a hell of a lot more work in reforming the college finance system,” she said.
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” (my editors have informed me I am no longer allowed to call them tweets) that caught our eye:
- Never Back Down said it, not us
- Going back in time to tell my government teacher that the federalism lesson only makes sense if there’s cake.
- Time is a flat circle.
- Nevada: home of the Sickos.
We’ll see you next week.